Summary of the day: Russian troops stepped up their attacks around Avdiivka, trying to make more gains before Ukraine can strengthen its defenses. At the same time, there’s talk about Transnistria, a region siding with Russia, which might affect Moldova’s chances of joining the European Union but doesn’t directly threaten Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been talking up Russia’s military wins for political points and making moves against what he sees as threats from Central Asia and the Pacific area. Russia also tested its own internet control system to manage what information gets out. Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian fighter jets, showing they’re fighting back hard. Russia plans to spread more false information to upset people in Ukraine from March to May. Also, Russia is organizing its military better and making plans to include more fighters from areas of Ukraine it controls, while also arranging for Ukrainian children to be adopted in Russia.
Situation On The Ground And Air
After taking over Avdiivka, Russian troops are pushing hard to gain more ground before Ukrainian soldiers can strengthen their defenses. They’ve increased the size of their attacking groups and continue to move towards less defended areas, even though Ukrainian forces have quickly set up new defense lines which have received some criticism. The battle could slow down as the Russians reach more difficult terrain.
Russia is also changing which commanders oversee different areas to make their military efforts more effective, especially in Avdiivka where they’ve had some success. They’re trying to organize their troops better to keep up the pressure against Ukraine. But it’s not clear if these changes will really help them solve some of their ongoing problems with managing their forces, particularly in tough spots like near Bakhmut and southwest of Donetsk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the front lines in Eastern Ukraine without any major shifts in territory. Reports of minor Russian advances near Kupyansk and Kreminna have not been confirmed. Russian forces are using drone strikes and glide bombs in their attacks, especially targeting Ukrainian artillery and tanks. Russian tactics include periods of intense fighting followed by breaks to recover and then striking again. Russian military units are active in the areas west of Kreminna, carrying out operations in a pattern likely to prepare for future offensives.
Russian troops, including Chechen forces, are advancing west of Bakhmut, engaging in combat on the outskirts of Ivanivske and towards the village center, while Chechen units aim to push through southwest towards Chasiv Yar. The Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson, Illia Yevlash, confirmed intensified Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast’s Bakhmut sector on Feb. 27. Amid decreasing Western aid, Ukraine faces ammunition shortages. Russian airborne units are active northwest of the city, and new reinforcements are spotted advancing. The focus of Russian assaults is on villages east of Chasiv Yar, with heavy engagement in Bohdanivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly thwarted a Chechen unit near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. Russian forces rely heavily on air support and heavy weaponry, facing significant losses in heavy equipment.
Ukraine’s Tavria Group spokesperson announced that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Stepove and Severne villages near Avdiivka. The withdrawal follows Russian occupation of Lastochkyne on Feb. 26. Battles occurred in Stepove and Severne on the same day. Russian assault units, some numbering up to 250 soldiers, have reportedly increased. Previously, Ukraine withdrew from Avdiivka on Feb. 17 due to ammunition shortages.
Russian troops moved forward west of Avdiivka, taking over areas after Ukrainian forces pulled back from the two nearby settlements. The retreat followed intense overnight battles, and Ukraine has since strengthened its defense line a little further west. Confirmed reports show Russian soldiers in the taken settlements, and although Russia claims further advances nearby, these are not yet verified. Multiple Russian military units are involved in the ongoing conflict around Avdiivka.
Russian troops have made moves west and southwest of Donetsk City, with unconfirmed reports of progress in Krasnohorivka and areas near Marinka and Novomykhailivka. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources indicate ongoing skirmishes in these regions.
Fighting carried on near the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, but no shifts in territory have been confirmed. Battles were reported around Vuhledar, Staromayorske, Urozhaine, Malynivka, and Marfopil.
No major changes in front lines were reported in western Zaporizhia Oblast, despite ongoing clashes near Robotyne and Verbove. Claims of Russian control over Robotyne are unconfirmed, with reports suggesting Ukrainian forces are still present. Chechen “Vostok” Akhmat Battalion units are active in the area.
Fighting persisted around Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast, with no significant changes to positions reported.
Human Cost Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine caused three deaths and injuring ten others:
- Russian forces attacked the village of Veletenske in Kherson Oblast, killing an 82-year-old woman.
- A Russian strike hit the village of Khotin near Sumy, killing two police officers, and injuring six others. The strike occurred while police investigators were examining the aftermath of a previous attack. Two officers were found dead, and six were hospitalized.
- Three people sustained injuries in the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Romanivka, and Kostiantynivka in the front-line district of Pokrovsk. Additionally, farms and homes were damaged in settlements near Kurakhove, but there were no reported casualties.
- A 70-year-old man was injured in a Russian attack in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast which damaged ten houses, a five-story building, infrastructure and social facilities, an outbuilding, a car, a power line, and gas pipelines.
Aftermath of a Russian attack on Khotin
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 850 Russian forces casualties were recorded in the previous day alone.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Su-34 attack planes in the eastern sector, marking a recent increase in downed Russian aircraft. This adds to the tally of planes brought down, including two A-50 early warning aircraft in the past two months. Since the invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine has shot down around 340 Russian planes. The uptick in losses has prompted Russia to adjust its aerial strategy, reducing the number of Air Force sorties.
On the night of February 26-27, Russia launched missiles and drones at Ukraine, including ballistic and cruise missiles. Ukrainian forces intercepted two cruise missiles and 11 drones. Debris from a Russian drone damaged a power line in Poltava Oblast, leaving over 200 residents without electricity. Russian attacks targeted Ukrainian energy and aviation infrastructure. Energy specialists are repairing the damaged power line to restore electricity to affected households and companies.
President Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia to seek support for Ukraine’s peace plan and negotiate new prisoner exchanges with Russia. Saudi Arabia previously mediated the release of Ukrainian captives and hosted a peace summit in August 2023. Zelensky aims to discuss economic cooperation and Saudi participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Warsaw on Feb. 27, joining Polish farmers in demonstrations against Ukrainian agricultural imports and EU environmental policies. The protests, initiated in early February, oppose unfair competition from Ukrainian imports and criticize the EU’s Green Deal policies. Participants displayed anti-Ukrainian and anti-EU slogans. City authorities estimated 10,000 attendees, while organizers anticipated up to 50,000. Farmers threaten a general strike on March 6 if demands are unmet, while truckers may resume protests at Ukrainian border crossings on March 1 due to unfulfilled promises from the Polish government.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced plans to possibly extend the ban on Ukrainian goods due to concerns over quality and competition with local products. The ban, initiated in April, primarily targets Ukrainian grain imports. Tusk cited the need to safeguard the EU market and local manufacturers, stressing that Ukrainian goods lack EU-standard quality. He emphasized the importance of protecting Poland’s economy while supporting Ukraine amidst the Russian invasion.
Former Antonov State Enterprise director Serhii Bychkov and Aviation Security Department head Oleksandr Netosov are facing 15 years in prison for allegedly obstructing Ukraine’s defense, reported the Security Service (SBU). They are accused of impeding the activities of the Armed Forces by blocking access for soldiers to the Antonov territory. This includes refusal to allow National Guard access for defense preparation before Russia’s invasion. Bychkov and Netosov were charged with negligence leading to the destruction of the AN-225 Mriya aircraft in April 2023. Despite warnings, they allegedly failed to evacuate the aircraft during fighting at Hostomel airport, resulting in over 8.4 billion UAH ($227.8 million) in damage to Ukraine.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russia is organizing programs for the adoption of Ukrainian children who have been moved there, blending Ukrainian and Russian cultures in what they teach adoptive parents. These programs aim to make Russia a “second homeland” for these children, despite cultural and international differences. Applicants are screened with questions about their connections to Ukraine. This action is likely against international laws against genocide.
The Russian Red Cross is accused of acting as a propaganda arm for the Kremlin in occupied Ukraine, lacking the official war zone role of the International Red Cross. Investigations reveal it has supported and awarded groups sanctioned for aiding the Russian military and made pro-Russian public statements. The organization has also created entities like the “Donetsk Red Cross” to improve the image of Russia’s occupation and has been involved in mistreating Ukrainian POWs and refugees.
The Ukrainian resistance detonated an office of the United Russia party in the occupied city of Nova Kakhovka on Feb. 27, aiming to disrupt Russia’s planned presidential election in March, also set to occur in occupied Ukrainian territories. Russia allegedly attributed the incident to drone strikes to conceal Ukrainian resistance activity. The National Resistance Center urged Ukrainians to boycott the “elections” and warned collaborators of accountability. Nova Kakhovka, under Russian occupation since February 2022, lies in Kherson Oblast.
United Russia party office in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, blown up by Ukrainian partisans
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, along with leaders from Germany, the U.K., and other European NATO members, stated they are not considering deploying troops to Ukraine after French President Emmanuel Macron raised the possibility. Macron mentioned the option but noted there was no consensus among leaders. Leaders from Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Finland, the U.K., Spain, and Italy have all ruled out sending troops, emphasizing current efforts focus on aid and support. The U.S. confirmed it won’t deploy troops to Ukraine, reiterating President Biden’s stance against U.S. combat involvement. NATO reaffirmed its support for Ukraine but clarified there are no plans for combat troops on the ground.
The European Parliament approved a 50-billion-euro funding package, the Ukraine Facility, for Ukraine from 2024 to 2027. The package includes 33 billion euros in loans and 17 billion euros in grants. After months of delay, it was greenlit during a European Council summit on Feb. 1. The Parliament secured oversight via regular discussions with the European Commission and reinforced involvement of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada. The Facility prioritizes recovery, green initiatives, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal expressed gratitude for the support.
European countries are teaming up to help Ukraine get more artillery shells. The Czech Republic is leading the charge, with 15 nations joining in. The details of who’s involved are kept secret, but the Netherlands has already put over 100 million euros into the effort. France’s President Macron has also shown his support for this initiative.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen urged Europe to increase defense spending to deter Russia in an interview with the Financial Times. She criticized Europe’s past naivety and dependency on Russia for gas and China for technology. NATO leaders have warned about the risks of a direct war with Russia, and EU leaders fear Russian aggression beyond Ukraine. Frederiksen emphasized the need to avoid past mistakes and prioritize defense over social spending. Denmark and Ukraine signed a 10-year security agreement, with Denmark leading efforts to provide Ukraine with F-16 jets along with the Netherlands.
France and the Netherlands support Czechia’s plan to buy ammunition for Ukraine from outside the EU, addressing critical shortages. Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka was linked to ammo scarcity. Czechia aims to purchase 450,000 shells abroad, with France now backing the plan. The Netherlands pledges 100 million euros for ammunition. Several European nations, including France and the Netherlands, support the initiative.
US President Biden met with top congressional leaders to resolve deadlock over aid to Ukraine and prevent government shutdown. The $60 billion aid package for Ukraine faces delays amid political wrangling. Biden aims to push Republicans to pass the bill amid pressure from Trump and a looming shutdown.
The U.S. Army is using its own funds to train Ukrainian troops due to Congress’s delay in passing additional aid, as reported by Voice of America. This delay has nearly depleted U.S. assistance to Ukraine, straining its defense capabilities. Without action, resources for NATO operations and Ukraine support may run out by summer. Pentagon emphasizes the importance of this mission. Ukraine faces ammunition shortages, highlighted by the loss of Avdiivka city in February. While the Senate approved $60 billion aid, Speaker Johnson hasn’t brought it to a vote in the House.
Poland urges US House Speaker Johnson to allow vote on Ukraine aid, warning of responsibility if aid stalls. Foreign Minister Sikorski emphasizes global scrutiny on Johnson’s decision. Johnson’s refusal to vote linked to migration debate with Trump. Poland highlights Putin’s test of US credibility amid Russian weapon imports. Sikorski underscores unity against America by dictators and terrorists, fueled by fear.
Latvia has prolonged visa restrictions for Russian citizens until March 2025 due to security concerns stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The restrictions, initiated in September 2022, prevent Russians from entering Latvia unless they hold EU or Latvian residence permits, are diplomatic staff or family, or meet specific exceptions such as medical emergencies or court hearings.
Russia News
Russia just ran a test on its own version of the internet to make sure it can control what people see and do online. This test caused many popular websites like Telegram, YouTube, and WhatsApp to go down for a bit. Even some sites that Russia usually blocks, like Instagram and Twitter, were briefly available. The government’s internet watchdog, Roskomnadzor, was behind these shutdowns, trying to cut off stuff they don’t want people to see. This is all part of Russia’s bigger plan to keep a tight hold on the internet and be able to block or allow content as they see fit, especially when they’re arguing with big social media companies about what should be allowed online.
Oleg Orlov, a leader of the Memorial human rights group, was sentenced to two and a half years in prison by the Golovinsky Court of Moscow for “discrediting the military.” Orlov’s case stemmed from his publication of a translated French article critical of Russia’s war in Ukraine. He was fined previously and declared not guilty, denouncing the sentence as politically motivated. Russia has broadened laws against statements critical of the military, seen as a crackdown on dissent. Orlov, a civil activist and historian, has been part of Memorial for over 20 years. The group, known for researching Soviet-era crimes and advocating for human rights, faced increasing pressure from the Russian government, leading to its dissolution in 2022.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Starting March 1, Russia plans to enforce mobilization in Ukrainian areas it occupies, according to a decree by President Putin. This move, reported by a Ukrainian official, aims to increase Russian military numbers but doesn’t signal a larger mobilization wave. Forcing occupied populations into military service breaches international law.
Russian efforts to boost ammunition production face challenges due to Western sanctions and limitations of its own production capacity, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Despite plans to produce 2.7 million units this year, Russia fell short of its February missile launch goals. The Kremlin aims to replace foreign components with domestically made ones, although they are of lower quality. Additionally, Russia obtained old munitions from Belarus and North Korea, but their effectiveness is questionable.
Russian Allies
ISW revises its forecast due to Transnistria’s planned discussion on Moldova’s economic changes, hinting at a possible referendum for joining Russia, aimed at destabilizing Moldova. Moldova’s EU alignment led to a customs code change, causing tension with Transnistria, which now requires local businesses to pay duties directly to Moldova, impacting Transnistria’s revenue. Key Transnistrian figures, like Viktor Gushan of Sheriff Enterprises, face a dilemma between economic benefits from the EU and potential annexation by Russia, with Gushan likely favoring a status that maintains economic advantages without full annexation. ISW notes Russia’s potential use of these tensions to undermine Moldova’s stability and EU aspirations, with an update expected after Transnistria’s congress.
South Korea’s Defense Minister Shin Won-sik reported that North Korea is running its munitions factories at full speed to send supplies to Russia, with around 6,700 containers shipped since September 2023. These shipments could include millions of artillery rounds. However, North Korea’s weapon production is at 30% due to shortages. In return, Russia is likely giving North Korea food, materials for making weapons, and possibly satellite technology.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is talking up Russia’s recent military actions in Ukraine as big wins, trying to make Russia look strong before their presidential election. He says Russian troops have pushed forward a lot in Donetsk and Kupyansk, but some people say he’s stretching the truth. Shoigu also mentioned potential dangers coming from Central Asia and the Pacific area, showing off Russian military drills there, though it’s not really the right show of force for the types of threats they might face. He’s trying to make Russia seem like a tough military power, kind of warning others who might go against Russia, and to show that Russia could be a key military buddy in the Pacific area. But with so many Russian soldiers busy in Ukraine, it’s not clear if Russia can handle problems elsewhere, especially in Central Asia and the Pacific.
Ukraine’s security agency has warned that Russia is going to step up a big propaganda push called “Maidan-3” from March to May 2024. They’re planning to spend a lot of money, $1.5 billion, to make Ukrainians doubt their leaders and feel uneasy, especially on important dates like when the presidential elections were supposed to happen and the anniversary of President Zelensky getting into office. The main point of Russia spending so much is to make people lose faith in those running Ukraine and to stir up trouble among the public.
Russian officials accused Ukrainian special forces of deploying a “chemical warfare agent” in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, potentially to divert attention from Ukrainian claims of widespread Russian chemical weapon use. They didn’t specify the agent used. Ukrainian authorities have consistently reported increased Russian use of illegal chemical weapons in Ukraine, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. The Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade recently admitted to deploying riot control agents banned by the Convention on Ukrainian positions in Kherson Oblast.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com