Summary of the day: Russian Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Russia’s territorial ambitions within Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence reported sabotage of a Russian railway bridge, indicating ongoing hostilities. Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amidst continued positional engagements along the frontline.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk reported increased use of Kh-31P anti-radar missiles by Russian forces to target Ukrainian air defense systems. This escalation follows Ukraine’s downing of a Russian A-50 radar aircraft on February 23. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat noted Russian avoidance of using A-50 aircraft for fear of further losses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Limited fighting persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with no significant changes reported. Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed continued engagements in various areas. A milblogger mentioned Russian advancements near Yampolivka and Terny but noted their inability to turn tactical gains into larger successes. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Su-34 bombers targeting Ukrainian positions in the Lyman direction.
Russian forces made recent advances west of Bakhmut amidst ongoing positional fighting. Footage confirms Russian presence in central Ivanivske, with reports of ongoing battles and attempts to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. Fighting continued in various areas northwest, southwest, and south of Bakhmut, with Russian forces allegedly mobilizing additional troops in the Bohdanivka region. Russian efforts near Chasiv Yar indicate plans for further advances toward Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, according to Ukrainian military sources.
Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka amidst ongoing fighting, as confirmed by geolocated footage. Reports suggest Russian advancement south of Orlivka near the Orlivka-Tonenke road, with claims of significant progress in Tonenke. However, visual confirmation of these advances is yet to be observed. Positional fighting continued in various areas west and southwest of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian forces have halted Russian military advances in areas west of Avdiivka, according to Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria Group. Despite facing severe ammunition shortages due to delayed U.S. aid, Ukrainian troops stabilized the situation and slowed Russian progress near Novoselivka, Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske villages.
Russian forces made recent advancements southwest of Donetsk City amid ongoing positional fighting in the area. Geolocated footage confirms Russian presence in central Novomykhailivka, with reports of continued battles. Russian reinforcements are targeting Novomykhailivka near Marinka, with increased assaults compared to the Avdiivka sector. Fighting also persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City near various locations.
Positional fighting persisted in western Donetsk Oblast and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with no significant changes reported. Continued engagements were reported near Vodyane in western Donetsk Oblast and near Prechystivka and Urozhaine along the border area.
Positional engagements persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no reported changes to the frontline. Sources cited ongoing engagements near Robotyne and Verbove, with Russian forces encountering difficulties clearing Ukrainian trenches due to mines.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful attack near Krynky in east bank Kherson Oblast.
Human Costs Of War
A Russian drone strike on a residential building in Odesa on March 2 injured 20 people, including a pregnant woman. Rescue operations concluded late on March 3, revealing 12 fatalities, including five children. Two severely injured individuals are in intensive care, and one is hospitalized in moderate condition. Three others are receiving outpatient treatment. The attack destroyed 18 apartments, leaving many without heat. Odesa Oblast governor Oleh Kiper described it as an “unspeakable tragedy.” President Zelensky condemned the attack, urging the world to respond to Russian aggression.
A section of a residential building destroyed by a Russian drone in Odesa, Ukraine, on March 2
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of three people and injuries to 20 others:
- A Russian drone attack in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk Oblast killed two rescuers and injured three more as they fought a fire caused by an earlier strike. The victims, aged 29 and 31, were part of the rescue team risking their lives to save others.
- Russian forces targeted Rizdvianka village in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with cluster munitions, resulting in the death of a civilian.
- In Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, 16 people were injured, including a 15-year-old boy and a 17-year-old girl, when Russian forces targeted a residential building with a 500-kilogram guided missile. The attack damaged 15 apartment buildings.
- In Pokrovsk, Russia launched an Iskander-M missile, injuring three people and causing damage to four multi-apartment buildings, 12 cars, and roads.
- A Russian drone attack hit Beryslav in Kherson Oblast, injuring a 55-year-old man. The drone dropped an explosive device on the city streets, causing blast injuries and shrapnel wounds. The man was hospitalized.
The aftermath of the Russian attack against Kurakhove
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 1150 Russian force casualties were recorded in the previous day alone.
Ukraine News
Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 18 out of 22 Shahed-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight. The drones, originating from occupied Crimea, targeted Odesa Oblast. Air raid alerts were active for over three hours. In Odesa Oblast, a recreational facility sustained damage, but there were no reported casualties. Odesa remains a frequent target of Russian strikes, with a recent attack on March 2 causing casualties and fatalities.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency conducted a cyberattack on the Russian Defense Ministry’s servers, retrieving classified documents. The attack revealed orders, reports, and high-ranking officials’ details. Cyber warfare is increasingly common in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian Defense Ministry hasn’t responded to these claims.
President Zelensky replaced Dmytro Hereha with Oleksandr Yakovets as the commander of Ukraine’s Support Forces. This move is part of a broader reshuffle in Ukraine’s military leadership. The Support Forces play a vital role in providing operational support to the military. Brigadier General Yakovets, the new commander, has a long military career, including participation in Ukraine’s Anti-Terrorist Operation in the Donbas region.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that the Polish-Ukrainian border disputes may be influenced by Poland’s pre-election dynamics, amid protests by Polish farmers blocking Ukrainian imports. Shmyhal highlighted that Poland’s trade restrictions affect it more economically than Ukraine. He noted that the situation is linked to Poland’s upcoming elections and urged for sensible resolutions. Talks between the two countries are scheduled for March 11 and March 28 in Warsaw.
Ukraine plans to allocate funds from frozen Russian assets to rebuild destroyed sites, Prime Minister Shmyhal announced. With Western countries freezing $300 billion of Russian assets, Ukraine’s reconstruction costs now total $486 billion. The EU has agreed to channel profits from these assets to Ukraine, primarily impacting Belgium-based Euroclear, holding $205 billion in Russian assets. International legal experts deem this action lawful due to Russia’s breach of international law.
DTEK, Ukraine’s main private energy company, restored power to 426,000 homes affected by Russian attacks in February, according to their press service. Despite ongoing attacks damaging infrastructure, including energy facilities, across Ukraine, power has been largely restored. Last month, DTEK restored electricity to homes in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kyiv Oblasts. Additionally, Ukraine plans to export a record amount of electricity to neighboring countries.
Ukraine’s Health Ministry is inspecting military medical commissions in Kyiv due to numerous complaints, particularly regarding corruption and irregularities. This follows nationwide scrutiny of enlistment facilities, revealing suspected violations. Complaints include issues with the electronic queue system, medical check conditions, and corruption. The Ministry aims to address these issues and ensure compliance with the law.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) charged two Russian generals for ordering air strikes on high-rise buildings in Borodianka, Kyiv Oblast, during the 2022 conflict. Alexander Chayko, commander of the Eastern Military District, allegedly ordered the strikes, while Vladimir Kravchenko, commander of the 11th Army of the Air Force, carried them out. The attacks resulted in the destruction of six apartment buildings and the deaths of over 30 civilians, including a young girl. The incident is part of Ukraine’s efforts to hold accountable those responsible for war crimes during the conflict.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested a Dnipro resident accused of spying for Russia by gathering information on the city’s air defense. The suspect, recruited through pro-Kremlin Telegram channels, scouted Ukrainian military logistics routes and air defense unit bases. His task was to provide details for potential Russian attacks, particularly targeting radar systems. Investigators found evidence of his correspondence with a Russian handler on computer equipment seized from his home. If convicted, he faces life imprisonment.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine ramps up investment in its defense industry, focusing on technology and joint weapons production. The Brave1 platform has granted over $3 million to Ukrainian tech developers for robotics and drones. The government allocated $1 billion for drone purchases, aiming to produce one million drones by 2024, with a focus on electronic warfare systems. Ukraine also finalized agreements with Western arms manufacturers for joint production, with plans for more contracts in the future.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO’s Nordic Response 24 exercises started in northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway, including Finland for the first time since joining NATO. Led by Norway, the drills are part of NATO’s larger Steadfast Defender 24 exercises, involving 20,000 soldiers from 14 countries. The exercises aim to showcase NATO’s readiness and unity in defending its member states. Russia has criticized NATO’s exercises as provocative. Tensions between NATO and Russia have escalated amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about future conflicts.
The European Commission aims to integrate Ukraine into the EU defense industry support scheme, potentially bringing the country closer to EU accession. This move seeks to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities and aid its recovery, reconstruction, and modernization efforts. The proposal includes granting Ukraine full membership in joint procurement initiatives and access to EU funds. The European Commission will present the proposal on March 5 alongside the EU’s broader defense strategy. Ukraine’s allies are urged to expedite military aid amid ongoing conflict with Russia.
Ukraine’s European allies step up military support efforts. The Czech Republic plans to send artillery shells to Ukraine soon, sourced from outside the EU. France ordered 100 loitering munitions for Ukraine and provided over $2.8 billion in military aid and training. Belgium considers using $1.8 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s defense.
Poland intends to seek EU sanctions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products and food items to protect European and Polish markets, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The move follows protests by Polish farmers against Ukrainian agricultural imports. Ukraine’s Prime Minister calls the border blockade “senseless,” stating Ukraine hasn’t exported relevant products to Poland since September. A ban on Russian agricultural exports to the EU was proposed as part of Ukraine’s plan to resolve the blockade. Latvia already banned grain and food imports from Russia and Belarus in February, urging for a unified EU-wide ban to be effective.
Argentina donated two Mi-171E helicopters to Ukraine, as reported by the Financial Times on March 1. President Javier Milei initiated the donation, with plans for a summit on Latin American support for Ukraine in 2024. Argentina had considered transferring the helicopters since mid-December 2023.
Ukrainian officials and France signed a memorandum to invest over 5 million euros in Chernihiv Oblast’s reconstruction. Projects include fixing the Chernihiv theater’s roof and developing anti-radiation centers in hospitals. Training programs on recovery are also part of the plan. The partnership aims for lasting transformation in the region, fostering Ukraine’s integration into the European economic space. Other European countries, like Italy and Denmark, have committed funds for Ukraine’s restoration efforts.
Ukraine and Spain initiated talks for a security agreement under the G7’s support declaration. So far, over 30 nations have joined the declaration, with some, like the U.K. and Germany, signing bilateral agreements with Ukraine. Spanish and Ukrainian officials discussed the framework of the deal and future negotiations’ schedule. The agreement aims to provide lasting support to Ukraine against Russian aggression, covering sanctions, financial aid, and post-war reconstruction.
Russia News
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported a significant explosion damaging a Russian railway bridge near Chapaevsk, Samara Oblast on March 4. The railway is crucial for transporting military cargo, including ammunition. The incident led to delays in train schedules, prompting Russian authorities to suspend traffic temporarily. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) launched a criminal investigation into the explosion, with some attributing blame to Ukrainian forces.
The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned German Ambassador Alexander Lambsdorf over leaked talks of Taurus missile delivery to Ukraine. The recording was disclosed by RT’s chief editor. Berlin is investigating the leak, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposes providing Taurus missiles to Kyiv. TASS reported the summons with a video of Lambsdorf leaving the ministry. The Taurus missile request by Ukraine has sparked debate since May 2023.
A Moscow court ordered the arrest of Petro Vrublevskyi, Ukraine’s former ambassador to Kazakhstan, in absentia for comments about killing Russian soldiers. Vrublevskyi’s statement in August 2022 led to a protest from Kazakhstan, and he was later dismissed from his post by President Zelensky. Russian authorities have now opened a criminal case against him, placing him on federal and international wanted lists, and labeling him as a terrorist or extremist.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is boosting imports of dual-use goods through Central Asian routes, including drones and U.S.-made computer chips, to support its military efforts in Ukraine, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Despite Western sanctions, Russia continues to access sanctioned goods through third-party countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These supplies, originating from China, facilitate the production of missiles and drones. The Central Asian route is crucial for both military and civilian items, with Chinese exports of sanctioned goods to the region reaching $1.3 billion in 2023. Central Asian countries are not the only conduits; entities in Turkey and the UAE also aid Russia in evading sanctions. Efforts to counter these actions are being intensified by Ukraine and its allies.
A Russian news aggregator reported that Russian forces replaced the Storm-Z project with Storm-V. Storm-V integrates convicts into existing military units, eliminating legal complexities faced by Storm-Z convicts seeking pardons. The shift implies longer military service for convicts, replacing Storm-Z units with regular military for “high risk” operations.
Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii revealed that Russian Railways Security Service Head Viktor Shendrik funds the “Hispaniola” private military company (PMC). The “Hispaniola” PMC, comprising sports fans and extremists, operates under the Russian Ministry of Defense-controlled “Redut” PMC. Russian oligarchs Arkady and Boris Rotenberg, linked to Russian Railways, show interest in establishing similar PMCs.
Russia’s Allies
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated to RIA Novosti that a meeting between President Zelensky and Prime Minister Orban is not yet appropriate. Plans for Orban’s official visit to Ukraine, the first in 14 years, were discussed earlier by Ukrainian officials. Szijjarto mentioned that certain conditions are necessary for the meeting, which are currently not met. Orban had previously accepted Zelensky’s invitation for a bilateral meeting. Relations between Hungary and Ukraine have been tense, with Hungary opposing sanctions on Russia and maintaining close ties with Moscow.
Belarusian companies are suspected of aiding Russian businesses in evading sanctions, potentially supporting the Russian defense industry. Belarusian Ambassador to Russia Dmitry Krutoy mentioned that Belarusian enterprises, including the Belarusian Metallurgical Plant and Minsk Motor Plant, are sending goods to large enterprises in Vladimir Oblast for import substitution projects amid Western sanctions on Russia.
A Kremlin-linked milblogger emphasizes Russia and India’s defense ties, possibly in response to reports of India distancing from Russia.
A Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger condemned Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for suggesting a freeze on Armenia’s participation in the Russia-led CSTO. The milblogger warned that Pashinyan’s actions could provoke Russia, resulting in serious consequences.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Medvedev asserted that Russia’s primary objective in Ukraine is to control its population rather than acquire territory, citing the limited economic value of Ukrainian lands. He emphasized Russia’s goal to eradicate Ukrainian sovereignty and identity, with reports documenting ethnic cleansing and suppression of Ukrainian language and culture in occupied areas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly honored a Russian milblogger affiliated with the Airborne Forces (VDV) and Spetsnaz, likely aiming to secure loyalty. The milblogger, associated with the Rusich Army channel, received the Order of Merit of the Fatherland Second Class for supporting the invasion of Ukraine. This recognition, awarded to a second milblogger, highlights Kremlin efforts to co-opt influencers and suppress dissenting voices in the Russian information space. Despite this, some milbloggers clash with state propagandists, indicating ongoing tensions within the information ecosystem.
The Russian government allegedly concealed data on social support recipients in 2022, possibly to mask casualties from the Ukraine conflict or hide shortcomings in providing promised aid. An opposition outlet revealed that the Unified State Information System for Social Security (EGISSO) hid this data. The hidden information includes details that could indicate losses in Ukraine, suggesting an attempt to prevent social unrest or cover government failures in aid provision.
The Kremlin aims to secure high voter turnout in the upcoming presidential election to bolster the appearance of legitimacy and support for Putin. Meduza reports concerns within the Russian presidential administration about reaching a 70 to 80 percent turnout target. Efforts include mobilizing government-affiliated voters, such as public sector employees, with incentives like reduced voting requirements and electronic voting options.
Russian authorities are leveraging a leaked recording of German military officers discussing missile provision to Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the German Ambassador in response. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius labeled it as part of a Russian “information war” to weaken Western support for Ukraine.
Russian officials persist in portraying NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises as a threat, despite their defensive nature. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko expressed concern over the Nordic Response 24 exercise, part of Steadfast Defender, conducted near Russia’s border.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com