UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
As UAF are busy sweeping up in western Kherson region and RF are digging in their defenses on the eastern side of the Dnipro River, it gives me an opportunity to reflect on Ukraine’s effective strategy of retaking their territory. The following map shows the current Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation in red (dark red is territory taken in 2014) and the area that Ukraine has liberated in blue. Ukraine has retaken nearly 28,750 square miles of their territory that Russia had occupied in the first weeks of the recent invasion, roughly the size of South Carolina or Maine.
The first goal was to push RF away from the capital Kyiv and then from Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv. With those two cities no longer under threat, UAF could then reinforce their defense of the Donbas where RF were advancing. The third goal was to push RF to the east bank of the Dnipro River which was finally accomplished last week with the liberation of western Kherson.
The Liberation of Western Kherson (Left Bank of the Dnipro River).
UAF are limited in their offensive power as they lack tanks and planes, so they have relied on artillery to tire the RF and HIMARS missile systems to take out weapon depot centers in the rear. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s biggest prize was the taking of the regional capital of Kherson and was determined to hold onto it at all costs. He moved his most elite troops across the Dnipro River into western Kherson region to hold onto the prize. But supplying those troops was difficult as there were only two crossings over the Dnipro River – the Antonovskiy Bridge near Kherson and the dam near Nova Kakhovka. Ukraine lacked the weapons to destroy the bridge and dam but were successful in conducting precision strikes making the roadway impassable. Every time RF would repair the road, UAF would strike again. RF then tried to build temporary pontoon bridges, but those were destroyed as they were built. Reduced to ferry traffic across the river, they were unable to supply their troops on the western side effectively, and even ferries and the landings were being targeted. Putin’s most elite troops were in deep jeopardy of being trapped and destroyed as UAF slowly advanced.
Putin placed General Sergey Surovikin as commander in chief of Russian forces and Surovikin saw the impending doom of trying to hold onto western Kherson and began to convince Putin to endure the humiliation and surrender Kherson. But to sell the withdrawal, he had to give Putin a bone and so he started a campaign to take the strategically unimportant regions around Bakhmut and Vuhledar because they were not as heavily defended by UAF. RF may eventually occupy the two cities, but at such a great cost they will be unable to advance any further.
Ukraine’s Next Objective
UAF battling for western Kherson will now be able to redeploy to other fronts in the war. Ukraine will keep a bare minimum force on the western bank of the Dnipro River to prevent RF from returning and send the rest to fight elsewhere. Just where is not yet known. Some of them will probably be deployed to defend regions of Donetsk still under UAF control as that is now Russia’s main objective. Others will either join the push in the north to retake northern Luhansk by taking Svatove and Kreminna, or Ukraine may open another counter-offensive in the Zaporizhia region and drive for Melitopol and cut off RF in eastern Kherson region.
Russia’s Main Objective
Russia will concentrate on taking all the Donetsk region, but as I said before they are unlikely to get any farther than the militarily non-strategic cities of Bakhmut and Vuhledar before running out of steam at great loss.
Likelihood of a Ceasefire
Although Russia would love a ceasefire so that they can train and unify their forces, it would be foolish of Ukraine and her western allies to give any respite to RF at this time. Russia has deployed thousands of troops into Ukraine with absolutely no training and it is estimated that new Russian troops have a lifespan of four days. And Russian troops are so divided. Surovikin only has control of some of the RF, albeit the larger portion. But other troops are fighting under the command of the rebel breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, under Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and then the private army of Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin. This system has resulted in 60% of Russian casualties due to friendly fire.
The Impact of Winter
Winter is approaching and will result in some changes on both sides. The cold winter will more greatly hurt RF as they are undersupplied and will be more vulnerable to freezing temperatures and the resulting sicknesses. Daylight will be reduced from 16 hours a day to 9 which will reduce the number of offensive maneuvers on the frontline, so do not expect much territorial changes on the ground. The “golden hour” window in which to save a critically wounded soldier is reduced to a half hour, which means making the risk of contact with the enemy much greater. There is an increased possibility of another Russian invasion from the north as the land freezes allowing tanks and mechanized troops more movability, but RF are so depleted in those areas they may not have enough strength to take advantage of the winter this time as last year.
Russia Becoming More of a Pariah State
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, President Putin was shocked by the cold reception he received when attending the Group of 20 meeting. He is unwilling to risk it this time around and has decided not to attend the upcoming gathering in Indonesia. The Kremlin announced that he will not even address the gathering virtually as Ukraine President Zelensky is planning. Even China has not shown the support that Russia had expected publicly rebuking Russia for threatening to use nuclear weapons. Russia is not a pariah state yet like North Korea, but is heading that direction.
Summary of the Events
UAF are clearing the western Kherson region of remaining RF, while RF are increasing their attacks in the Donetsk region,
Luhansk Front
UAF continue to inch closer to Svatove and Kremmina.
Donetsk Front
RF captured Mayorsk which is southeast of Bakhmut.
Zaporizhia Front
RF have begun firing along this front again as they expect UAF to begin a drive to liberate Melitopol. RF even attacked Zaporizhia city itself with Iskander missiles. Russia is forcing Ukrainian men living in Melitopol to erect defenses for RF.
Kherson Front
With western Kherson region liberated and the Dnipro River serving as the front line for both sides, Ukraine is not giving RF a rest and fired on a military base on the eastern side of the river at Chaplynka.
Ukraine is urging their citizens not to rush back to their homes in the recently liberated regions of Kherson. Some RF are trapped behind UAF lines, and others are intentionally left behind to conduct sabotage. And RF have heavily mined the area and time is required to demine the region. Electricity and water are largely unavailable, and it will take time to restore the infrastructure.
Other News
President Putin introduced a draft law that would allow the government to strip any person of their Russian citizenship who is critical of the war against Ukraine or of RF fighting in Ukraine.