Ukraine Fighting on the Kinburn Straight – Day 271 (November 21, 2022)

UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces

Summary of the Events

RF spent the day mostly building defensive positions in expectation of a new Ukrainian counter-offensive against eastern Kherson Oblast and to slow down UAF advances against western Luhansk Oblast. Bad weather prevented UAF from taking new territory.

Eastern Kharkiv / Western Luhansk Front (UAF Main Objective)

The weather has slowed down the fighting on both sides in the Battle for Svatove and Kreminna. Heavy rains and muddy conditions have nearly stopped the RF ground attacks and has slowed the UAF advances. Both sides spent most of the day firing artillery at each other. UAF did conduct missile strikes near Kreminna, Alchevsk, and Syrotyne destroying Russian weapons and hitting the new RF conscripts arriving in the area.

Map

Description automatically generatedRed line is front line with Russian-occupied regions below the line. The blue line shows UAF moving into the Kinburn Straight. Then they will march towards Melitopol while UAF from the north move down from Orikhiv. This operation would liberate eastern Kherson Oblast and return control of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar to Ukraine. It will also cut off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea

Donetsk Front (RF Main Objective)

RF attempted several assaults during the day towards Bakhmut and Avdiivka without success. Unconfirmed reports claim that RF have entered the center of Marinka.

Zaporizhia – Eastern Kherson Front (RF Secondary Objective to Secure Southern Occupied Regions)

A Ukrainian official acknowledged that UAF are conducting a military operation on the Kinburn Straight which is the last Russian-occupied region within Mykolaiv Oblast. RF are using the spit to fire artillery on Ochakiv and prevent the use of the Mykolaiv and Kherson ports. By taking the spit, UAF can begin moving up on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River from the south, and from the north in Zaporizhia, in their objective to liberate Melitopol. Russian intelligence claims they are seeing a buildup of UAF near Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast preparing for a counter-offensive from the north. This will allow them to take eastern Kherson back without UAF crossing the Dnipro River which would result in great loss of life.

RF have reacted by moving their troops farther east out of the range of UAF artillery, while shelling UAF on the western bank of the Dnipro River. UAF continue firing at concentrations of RF and Russian weapon depots in rear areas. At least 100 Russian soldiers were wounded in an attack near Skadovsk.

Other News

Two days of shelling has greatly damaged the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that there was no immediate nuclear safety and security concerns as the attacks were unlikely to penetrate the containment units protecting each reactor but was a threat to the nuclear fuel storage facilities and could cause a radiation spill. A video was released showing that the artillery fire is coming from Russian-held territory which refutes Russia’s claim that UAF are shelling the nuclear plant.

Russia has introduced new steps to further their control over the information space. A bill was submitted that requires the owners of all sites to give the government the ability to block the participation of certain users they deem to be a threat to Russia’s security. The bill will even target Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube.

RF are forcibly removing Ukrainian civilians in Russian-occupied Bilovodsk to Luhansk city. Russia continues to remove children from Ukrainian families that show loyalty to Ukraine for forced adoptions to Russian parents.

Russia is rounding up families of fallen Russian soldiers and sending them to unspecified areas for “rest and rehabilitation”. The reason for this is to remove them from public areas to disseminate information about their fallen relatives and from organizing protests.

RF are seizing the property of Ukrainians who have fled the occupied zones and gifting them to Russian citizens. They are also expropriating hospitals and residential buildings to house their troops to prevent UAF from firing upon them.

Eight Ukrainian ships full of grain left the port of Odesa to deliver agricultural products to countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe.

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