UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
RF are inching closer towards Bakhmut from the south as UAF are moving closer to Kreminna from the northwest.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
RF failed in another attempt to regain Stelmakhivka and push UAF farther back from their main target of Svatove. RF shelled Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka suggesting that UAF have liberated those two towns and gaining control of Highway P66 which leads directly to their secondary target Kreminna now only eight miles away. UAF could take Kreminna within a week making control of Svatove worthless to Russia and forcing a retreat to Starobilsk.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Russia has not learned from its mistakes from previous high-casualty campaigns by once again concentrating on objectives of limited operational or strategic significance. Over the last six months, RF have been focused on taking Bakhmut taking only a few miles at a time at significant loss of lives and equipment. And like their great losses in taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, Bakhmut is only a symbolic victory target and will not give them any significant advantage in the future of their campaign.
With that in mind, RF made some progress towards Bakhmut from the south, possibly even taking Bilohorivka (Donetsk Oblast) and Kurdyumivka.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF continue to dig in their defenses to hold this region as they fire on Ukrainian positions on the other side of the Dnipro River. UAF are firing on RF farther back hitting weapon depots and concentration of forces killing RF in the hundreds. Unconfirmed reports of UAF conducting ground assaults from Orikhiv may suggest that the counter-offensive has begun with UAF moving down from the Northern Zaporizhia region. It was also rumored that UAF made another attempt to land on the Kinburn Spit for an attack from the south as well.
Other News
Russia has appointed the former Ukrainian chief engineer of the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Yuriy Chernichuk, as its new director and the first deputy general director of the Stock Company formed to operate the ZNPP which has been placed under the Russian nuclear power giant Rosatom. It was a brilliant coup d’état for Russia as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) refused to recognize Rosatom’s direct control over the ZNPP as Russian nuclear power plant technology is different than Ukraine’s and the IAEA did not have confidence in Rosatom running ZNPP. But now with a Ukrainian team, the IAEA has lost its objections and will be forced to deal with them implicitly recognizing Russia’s control over the nuclear power plant.
Ukrainian partisans conducting a major attack in the city Enerhodar in which the ZNPP resides. A whole platoon of RF were eliminated in the attack.
The likelihood of Belarus joining Russia in its war against Ukraine is very unlikely, but Russia needs to keep the possibility alive so that Ukraine will be forced to expend troops to defend its border with Belarus. Towards that end Belarusian Minister of Defense Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin stated on Wednesday that the NATO exercises being held near the Belarus border were a sign that NATO intends to invade Belarus. Of course, that is ludicrous, but it keeps the threat alive for now.
Russian citizens are tiring of the war. Back in July only 32% favored peace negotiations to end the war, but that has now risen to at least 55%. Whereas 57% of Russians had supported the continuation of the war back in July, only 34% do so now.
300 Ukrainian children in occupied Luhansk are being taken to Russian territory for “medical evaluation” forcing their parents to follow them. It is the ongoing strategy of removing Ukrainians from occupied territories to be replaced by Russian civilians.
International Support
NATO held its first of two days of a summit meeting in Bucharest, Romania. Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made the case for the priority of receiving generators to repair the broken energy sector and air defense systems to defend further attacks on the energy sector. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg responded with a pledge to do just that.
The UK unveiled a new round of sanctions on Russian officials targeting those involved in mobilizing more Russian troops. Another 22 Russian officials were added to the target list including ten governors. Arkady Gostev, the head of Russia’s prison service, was one of those added to the list for his cooperation in allowing Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin to recruit criminals from the prisons for his private army.
The German Parliament passed legislation recognizing the Holodomor, the starvation of millions of Ukrainians in 1932-1933, as an act of genocide perpetrated by the Russian leadership of the Soviet Union.