UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
Bad weather and muddy conditions have prevented both sides from making much progress on the ground. RF have had some success in encircling Bakhmut taking Ozerianivka and possibly two other towns yet unconfirmed.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
RF are focusing on regaining territories they lost around Stelmakhivka and Novoselivske to push UAF back from Svatove, whereas UAF are focused on moving towards Kreminna attacking near Chervonopopivka and Ploshchanka. Neither side had made much progress in the closing days of last week.
Over the weekend, UAF made some minor advances towards Svatove and Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF continue their failed attempts to take Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Siversk. It is becoming very difficult for UAF to defend as more and more RF are sent to this line from those who retreated from Western Kherson and those recently mobilized. RF captured Ozerianivka over the weekend and claimed to have taken six other towns yet unconfirmed. If these all prove to be true, then RF are continuing to circle around Bakhmut, but the positions taken are not that strategic.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF are digging in building defenses to hold territory while UAF are preparing for their next counter-offensive in the region. Both sides are heavily shelling the other across the Dnipro River. UAF continue to fire upon weapon depots and troop formations as they soften up RF for the counter-offensive.
Newly mobilized RF are being sent to the frontlines as the more experienced troops are pulling back to secondary and tertiary positions. This suggests that Russia knows it cannot hold onto Eastern Kherson and Southern Zaporizhia and is only preparing to slow down UAF forces until the spring when more trained RF can be mobilized to the region.
RF conducted an intense missile strike on Kherson city on Friday against energy and civilian targets. 15 civilians were killed and another 35 injured. Over half of the city is without power.
Other News
Mobilized Russian soldiers from Serpukhov, Moscow, released a video last Wednesday explaining why they abandoned their frontline positions near Makiyivka causing the incident where those soldiers left behind were forced to surrender, only to be murdered by another Russian soldier on a rampage. The video claimed that the Russian military command had sent them into battle without proper training, uniforms, or protective gear, leading them to suffer mass casualties. After being charged with desertion, they released another video denying they are deserting but are willing to serve on the second and third lines of defense until they are trained and equipped.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a false meeting last Friday with hand-picked women pretending to be mothers of Russian soldiers coming to ask Putin to improve the conditions of their sons on the frontlines. Putin pledges to them that he will personally see that their situation is improved. The women turned out to be government officials.
Forbes magazine released a report of the cost for Russia over the first nine months of the renewed invasion. Russia has spent $82 billion which is one-fourth of its annual budget. The additional 300,000 mobilized soldiers will add another $2.7 billion a month. This explains Russia’s inability to train and equip these new soldiers. Someone within the Russian government is distributing a report that suggests Russia will need to recruit 5 million new recruits to win the war against Ukraine. If Russia cannot even train and equip the 300,000 it just mobilized, it will be impossible for them to mobilize the millions it needs to win this war. The big question is who is releasing this report. It could be that the Russian military command is setting the groundwork to place the blame on the Russian government for the failure of this war.
UAF killed ten Iranian military advisors serving RF in Crimea training them on the use of Iran’s military drones.
Russia sent 10,500 Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise that they needed “special medical care”. This is their new strategy to continue the forced deportation of Ukrainian citizens to Russia to be replaced by Russian citizens in Ukrainian occupied territories. The parents are required to travel to Russia to pick up their children, only to find that they are denied the paperwork to return to Ukraine.
Russia has been using their aging KH-55 rockets in their recent attacks on Ukraine. These rockets normally have nuclear warheads, but they have been removed. So, these unarmed rockets are being used as decoys for Ukrainian air defenses during the last few massive missile strikes. This is further evidence that Russia is running low on missiles.
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop the war and enter peace talks with Russia.
After a week of intense bombing, over six million Ukrainians went into the weekend with electricity and heat.
International Support
UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visited Kyiv on Friday and announced a new package of $60 million in military assistance. It will include 3 helicopters,10,000 rounds of artillery shells, 125 anti-aircraft guns, 24 ambulances and six armored vehicles. He also announced $3.6 million in humanitarian assistance which includes the building of damaged schools and shelters, as well as funding to support survivors of sexual violence. He also announced another $6 million to help ship Ukrainian grain to impoverished nations such as Sudan and Yemen.
Germany sent another batch if military equipment to Ukraine. It included 2 tank transporter tractors and fourteen border protection vehicles. Germany also pledged $15.5 million to help ship Ukrainian grain.
Canada pledged $22 million to assist Ukraine in shipping grain.