UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
The ground has now frozen which will allow both sides to resume their ground offensives. UAF liberated thirteen settlements alone on Saturday in western Luhansk Oblast and may have established a beachhead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in eastern Kherson Oblast, whereas RF made no progress on the ground.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
RF have admitted that UAF are gaining ground toward Svatove and Kreminna and have announced the building of a second line of defense around Starobilsk which suggests they have acknowledged that they will likely have to pull back from Svatove and Kreminna. There is also confirmation that UAF have reached Chervonopopivka. Russian milbloggers have admitted as such and Ukraine has talked about a RF attacking UAF at Chervonopopivka. UAF fired HIMARS rockets at Starobilsk killing 14 Russian soldiers and injuring 30. Rockets were also fired at Svatove, Khoroshe, and Novochervone. UAF destroyed railway control equipment in Shchastia which will complicate supplying RF in the Luhansk theater. Serhiy Haidai, head of the rebel Luhansk Oblast, admitted on Saturday that Ukraine liberated thirteen settlements.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF continue their fight towards Bakhmut and Avdiivka, but with little success. No major changes were made on the ground Saturday.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
UAF released video footage alleging they have crossed the Dnipro River and have entered eastern Kherson Oblast. The video shows UAF raising the Ukrainian flag over a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank. If confirmed, this will certainly create alarms in Russia who has been building defensive fortifications along the east bank that UAF will be able to cross in a counter-offensive.
UAF strikes against RF around Melitopol and Vasylivka wounded up to 270 Russian soldiers on Friday. UAF continue to build up their forces along the Zaporizhia Defense Line as they prepare for a counter-offensive to retake much of Southern Ukraine. RF continue shelling UAF along this defense line as well as target deeper in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts. RF also shelled Zaporizhia city and Ochakiv across the bay from the Kinburn Spit.
Other News
Russian Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Belarusian Defense Minister Major General Viktor Khrenin to sign agreements strengthening their agreement on mutual defense. The meeting was likely a message to the Belarus government to maintain their alliance with Russia. There has been a noted increase in RF stationed in Belarus that we are watching closely, but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maintains its position that it is very unlikely Belarus will join in the conflict against Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin met with Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri in Tehran to discuss military cooperation. They discussed the sale of Iranian military drones and missiles to Russia to be used against Ukraine.
The Russian Duma (Parliament) passed a law last Wednesday that a crime committed in occupied Ukrainian territories in the interest of Russia since annexation will not be tried as a crime. In other words, a blanket amnesty has been granted on all crimes committed against Ukrainians in the occupied territories past and future.
International Support
The G7 nations and the European Union agreed to a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil to deny Russia war resources to fund their war machine.
Spain has supplied Ukraine with the first batch of Hawk anti-aircraft missiles systems.