UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
A major shift of RF has been seen moving from the Southern Ukraine and Donetsk theater of war, to bolster the defense in the Eastern Ukraine theater.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Russia has been moving troops from the Kherson region, and even the Donetsk front, to plug in holes in the defense of Eastern Ukraine. This suggests that Russia’s greatest fear is UAF advances towards Svatove and Kreminna. This will mean a lowering of the push in the Donetsk region and possibly the inability to defend their positions on the Southern Front.
RF attempted to regain lost positions near Svatove with an assault towards Andriivka and Novoselivske but were repelled by UAF. Satellite images of a Ukrainian tank destroying a Russian tank in Novoselivske provides evidence that Russia has not captured Novoselivske as they had previously claimed.
RF also attempted to regain lost positions near Kreminna with attacks towards Chervonopopivka, Zhytlivka, Makiyivka, Bilohorivka, and Serebrianka. But all were repelled by UAF. Russia has made claims though that they are advancing in this sector. There has been no confirmation of this claim.
UAF have halted their advances temporarily waiting for the ground to freeze but have attacked targets in the rear such as a Wagner Group compound at a hotel in Kadiivka resulting in high losses. UAF also struck a hotel in Svatove housing RF.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
With Russian troops being mobilized to defend Eastern Ukraine, the Wagner Group (private army led by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin) is being left to lead the push against Bakhmut, and the Donetsk People’s Republic army is being left to lead the push against Avdiivka.
Ukraine continues its cloud of secrecy in its defense along the Donetsk line, so most of the information is based on Russian sources.
RF continue their heavy attacks on Bakhmut, but UAF have held the line. RF held assaults on Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne but all were repulsed. Satellite footage shows a railroad bridge near Pidhorodne was blown up which was one of two allowing reinforcement and supplies into Bakhmut. Russia claimed that UAF blew up the bridge in fear of losing Pidhorodne and stopping a Russian advance towards Slovyansk.
Russia claimed that the Wagner Group has made some progress advancing on Bakhmut, reaching the T1302 Highway, and moving closer to Opytne. Satellite images support the claim that RF have reached Opytne. Russian sources also claimed that the Donetsk People’s Republic army has also made progress in advancing towards Toretsk. There are no confirmations yet of these advances.
RF continue their attacks on Avdiivka with assaults towards Krasnohorivka, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka. All these attacks were repelled by UAF, although Russian sources claim to have control of 70% of Marinka. Russian sources did admit that they were not successful in advancing more on Marinka. Russian sources made claims of advances toward Pervomaiskyi and Vodiane, but these claims remain unconfirmed.
UAF attempted to retake Pisky but failed in the attempt according to Russian sources.
Along the western Donetsk line of defense, RF are defending their positions near Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva, and Pavlivka. Russian sources claimed some marginal advances towards Velyka Novosilka after UAF retreated, but Ukrainian sources refute this claim. Russian sources also claim that RF repelled an UAF attack towards Neskuchne.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF have been seen leaving this region to beef up defenses in Eastern Ukraine. This will make a counter-offensive in the region more attractive to UAF.
There was a heavy fog in the region and icy roads making any movement in this theater difficult. But both sides continued shelling the other across the Dnipro River.
UAF continue firing rockets behind Russian lines. UAF struck a restaurant-hotel complex in Melitopol which was housing RF. They also struck Russian checkpoint in Bohdanivka, a radar station in Semenivka, and two Russian bases in Polohy and Maiske. These strikes killed dozens of Russian soldiers and wounded over 200. Another strike in an unspecified area of southern Zaporizhia resulted in the injury of another 150 Russian soldiers.
RF also fired rockets behind the line at target in Nikopol, Marhanets, Hulyaipole, and Ochakiv.
RF have also been seen fortifying northern beaches of Crimea out of fear of an amphibious invasion by Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Force Support
The Russian Naval Clinical Hospital in Sevastopol, Crimea, is facing shortages of blood donor supplies for wounded Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian partisans in Russian occupied regions of Ukraine have reported that Russia is increasing their mobilization drives within occupied territories forcing Ukrainians to join the Russian army.
Russia continues to struggle with paying their soldiers on time according to first-hand accounts on social media accounts. Russian soldiers also complain that they are not receiving the equipment and supplies they need to maintain their positions. One video shows an appeal complaining about the lack of clothes and the unsanitary conditions in which they live. Video footages of Russian criminals being beaten in prison for refusing to join the army have also been posted.
Life in Russian-Occupied Regions
The Luhansk People’s Republic stated that they are hiring more law enforcement officials from Russia as the number of Ukrainian citizens behind held has increased to more than 230. Ukrainian citizens are being forced to obtain Russian passports.
Russia is forcing Ukrainian citizens to exchange their hryvnias for Russian rubles at a rate one-half of its values. The ruble is currently exchanging in Ukraine at 1.25 hryvnia, but Russia is forcing Ukrainians in occupied territories to exchange at 0.59 hryvnia. Russian occupation authorities are offering higher pensions and salaries for those Ukrainians who are willing to work in institutions of the occupation authorities.
Russian teachers in occupied regions are increasing their propaganda targeting Ukrainian children with stories on Russia liberating Ukraine from “the Nazis” and promoting Russian artists and athletes.
Partisans set on fire Russian barracks in Sovietske, Crimea on Sunday.
Other News
Russia has allocated $143 billion to their 2023 defense budget, which is 8% of their gross domestic product according to the World Bank and amounts to 30% of their 2023 budget. President Vladimir Putin is draining Russia’s resources to maintain his war against Ukraine. RF are also moving from other conflict areas such as Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia) to join the war effort in Ukraine. This will greatly diminish his dream of building an Asian empire.
Rumors began circulating on Sunday that Russia was planning on replacing Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov. The Kremlin has denied that Gerasimov is being replaced but has failed to provide the level of video evidence it used to deny a previous rumor that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu was being replaced.
Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov responded to US intelligence that UAF will stop their counteroffensive in Eastern Ukraine until the Spring by stating categorically that the counteroffensive will resume in the winter as soon as the ground freezes. Reznikov emphasized that Ukraine needs artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, tanks, and combat aircraft to support the counteroffensives.
International Support
The European Union added $2.1 billion to their fund used to help Ukraine fight its war against Russia.