UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
UAF are finding it difficult to stop the wave of RF from advancing on Bakhmut. RF have now reached the outskirts of Bakhmut. And RF have seemed to stop UAF advances on Svatove and Kreminna.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Svatove – RF conducted limited counteroffensives to regain territory lost near Svatove. RF unsuccessfully attacked towards Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka under ten miles north of Svatove. RF struck Kupyansk which is 30 miles northwest of Svatove.
UAF are building up their troops to increase their pace of counteroffensive operations towards Svatove.
Kreminna – RF conducted limited counteroffensives to regain territory lost near Kreminna. RF unsuccessfully attacked towards Novoyehorivka, Makiyivka, Chervonopopivka, and Bilohorivka which are between three to twenty miles from Kreminna. RF are trying to push UAF back across the Zherebets River. UAF are mobilizing to this area suggesting a major counteroffensive is in the working. UAF unsuccessfully attacked towards Terny and Yampolivka.
Bad weather has stopped UAF from conducting an effective counteroffensive towards Kreminna as the roads are too muddy for light vehicles. UAF did strike RF in the rear near Novoaidar killing more than 15 Russian military personnel on Tuesday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Russia sources claimed that RF are moving closer to Bakhmut. Russian sources claim that RF broke through UAF defense lines on Tuesday and established control of the Bakhmut Winery and “Siniat” enterprise on the outskirts of Bakhmut. Some sources are even claiming that RF were advancing down streets in Bakhmut. Ukrainian sources deny this and report they have repelled RF attacks on Bakhmut, Verkhnokamyanske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, and Klishchivka. Russian sources claim that RF had captured 90% of Opytne by Tuesday which is less than two miles south of Bakhmut.
A Russian source claimed that RF have entered the outskirts of Soledar and have moved into the residential areas of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka – Ukrainian sources claim that RF unsuccessfully attacked towards Avdiivka and Marinka on Tuesday. The Donetsk People’s Republic posted footage of supposed strikes on UAF in Pervomaiskyi only six miles southwest of Avdiivka. Russian sources claim that RF have taken control of the road between Marinka and Krasnohorivka which if true would be a heavy blow to UAF. Satellite images have confirmed that UAF have retaken central Marinka. Russian sources claim that RF have capture Vodiane. If this proves to be true, then RF can push north to block UAF supply routes in Avdiivka.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
There is evidence that RF are withdrawing from some areas on their side of the Dnipro River to fortify rear positions and move away from UAF artillery. Images were posted on Monday of RF erecting dragon’s teeth anti-tank fortifications near Viazivka in Zaporizhia Oblast and Novotroitske in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian partisans destroyed a bridge over the Molochna River near Melitopol. This will impact the ability of RF to resupply occupied eastern Kherson. UAF also destroyed a command post of the Russian army in Melitopol. Further strikes against command posts near Enerhodar, Tokmak, and Hulyaipole wounded 150 Russian soldiers and destroyed three artillery installations and ten other pieces of military equipment. On Wednesday, UAF struck a recreation center in Skadovsk which RF were using as barracks. This is the same pattern UAF deployed prior to their counteroffensive in western Kherson.
The International Atomic Energy Agency announced on Tuesday that it was making progress in negotiations to demilitarize the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russia continues to claim that they have no heavy military equipment around ZNPP, but satellite images prove this to be false.
RF continued their daily shelling around Hulyaipole, Nikopol, and Ochakiv.
Russian Mobilization and Force Support
It is reported that Wagner Group Financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin has recruited over 23,000 Russian criminals to the front lines. Prigozhin recruits these criminals from prisons offering them $3100, special privileges for their families, a complete pardon of their crimes, and a safer position in trenches along the second front line in Ukraine. One of these criminals, Vyacheslav Izmailov, released a video claiming that Prigozhin did not keep one of these promises and his division of 70 prisoners were sent to the front line and only 20 still survive.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that RF are intensifying their forced mobilization in occupied territories.
Russian airline Rossiya is laying off one-third of its pilots suggesting that Russia will forcibly recruit them to fly military aircraft. Russia is also preparing a law that will make it illegal of IT employees to work from their homes. This is meant to force the large number of IT employees who fled Russia to avoid mobilization to return in order to keep their jobs.
The Russian legislature adopted the first reading of a draft law that will bypass the government bureaucracy to make the production of military equipment more efficient.
Reports of an outbreak of bronchitis and pneumonia among RF in Siberia suggest that Russian troops are living in tents at very low temperatures.
Life in Russian-Occupied Regions
Ukrainian partisans attempted to assassinate the Russian deputy governor in the occupied half of Kherson Oblast. Vitaly Bulyuk survived with injuries, but his driver was killed.
The Russian State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation reported that only the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk are being integrated into the Russian judicial system. This raises questions on why Russia is not also doing the same for Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts which they also annexed.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check on Tuesday resulting in several troops moving closer to the Ukrainian border. But this was viewed by the experts as an information operation meant to create a false concern of a Belarus mobilization towards war and continue to force UAF to defend the Belarus border rather than move to the front line to confront RF.
Other News
Israeli intelligence reported that Iran is not providing Russia with ballistic missiles with a range over 300 kilometers or with a payload over 500 kilograms which would be in violation of international sanctions on Russia. Iran does not want international backlash from providing Russia with missiles that would be in violation of UN council resolutions.
Russia has been using missiles that Ukraine turned over to them in the 1990s as part of the Budapest Memorandum agreement where Russia promised to respect Ukraine’s border in exchange for Ukraine turning over their nuclear missiles. Russia has been removing the nuclear warheads and firing them in Ukraine as decoys.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will end 2022 as the first year of his 22-year reign that he did not hold a State of the Union speech. He had planned to give a speech in April 2022 announcing his triumph over Ukraine, but that plan was thwarted when Ukraine would not play dead. He has not been able to secure any significant victory to brag about and would only face a press with a lot of embarrassing questions.
Ukrainian officials are predicting that Russia will launch a large-scale offensive in the early months of 2023 when the ground is frozen and more conducive to heavy machinery movement, but that it will fail to take any strategically significant territory.
RF launched thirteen Iranian military drones at critical infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on Wednesday, but they were all shot down before they hit their targets.
A prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia was held on Wednesday. It was not reported how many Russian POWs were released, but Ukraine received 64 POWs back, one of which was an American citizen.
Russia has begun an information operation accusing Ukraine of attacking followers of Eastern Orthodoxy to steer up the Russian population. The truth is that there is freedom of religion in Ukraine and the only Orthodox priests who are being targeted with sanctions are those who serve in the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) which is not an independent religious organization but belongs to the Russian Orthodox Church. Only 4 % of the Ukrainian population are members of a UOC MP church whose priests are known to have assisted Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Whereas over half of Ukraine’s population are members of the Ukrainian Church which is a separate religious organization recognized by all Orthodox churches worldwide except the Russian Orthodox Church.
International Support
US officials have stated that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.