UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
UAF continue to move closer to Svatove and Kreminna, while RF gained some ground towards Bakhmut. More evidence of a rift between Hungary and Russia has emerged placing our region of Zakarpattia in danger.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
All sides agree that UAF are slowly making advancements towards Svatove and Kreminna.
Svatove – UAF moved closer to Sofiivka (13 miles NW) [RS].
Kreminna – UAF moved closer to Terny and Nevske (11 miles NW) [RS]. UAF also moved towards Holykove (6 miles N) to gain control of the R-66 Highway between Svatove and Kreminna and push RF across the Krasna River [RS]. RF unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions towards Ploshchanka (10 miles NW), Chervonopopivka (4 miles NW), and Dibrova (3 miles SW) [UAS].
UAF struck rear areas in Luhansk in Lantrativka (35 miles NE of Svatove), Shchastia (48 miles SE of Kreminna), and Kadiivka (37 miles SE of Kreminna).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Reporting by various RS paint a picture of a fractured and disunified RF in the drive to take Donetsk. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin reported that DNR troops alongside Wagner Group forces, the private army of Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, are closing the pincers on UF in Bakhmut. But then Prigozhin denied any involvement by DNR, or even regular RF, in the capture of Ivanhrad. It seems the four armies – RF, Wagner Group, DNR, and LNR (Luhansk People’s Republic) – are all trying to upstage each other.
Bakhmut – RF continue their attacks on Bakhmut from three sides. UAF repelled attacks by RF on Bakhmut from the east, Zelenopillya (2.5 miles NE), Opytne (2 miles S), and Andriivka (6 miles SW) [UAS]. Satellite images showed UAF shelling RF positions NE of Bakhmut between Soledar and Bakhmutske indicating that RF have advanced in this area. Video footage of Chechen and LNR troops attacking UAF positions in Soledar were also released. UAF are actively counterattacking south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka, Opytne, and Ozerianivka [RS]. UAF are building trenches in Bakhmut’s city center indicating they are preparing for the inevitable urban combat that will soon reach Bakhmut [RS].
Avdiivka – RF conducted artillery fire on UAF along the Avdiivka Defense Line.
RF unsuccessfully conducted assaults around Donetsk city near Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka SW of Donetsk city [UAS]. RF also attacked NW of Donetsk city towards Vodiane, Pervomaiskyi, and Nevelske, as well in the center of Marinka [RS].
UAF repelled a RF assault on Velyka Novoselivka (45 miles SW of Donetsk city)
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF have been seen retreating from Kakhovka and Nova Kakhovka on the east bank of the Dnipro River. RF have told the locals that they will fully withdraw by the New Year. Ukrainian officials are verifying this information as it could be a trap to lure UAF across the Dnipro River.
UAF continue to strike RF in the rear regions of Southern Ukraine. UAF have struck RF positions in Tokmak and Polohy injuring over 100 Russian troops and destroying an ammunition depot. [UAS].
RF also continued to shell Ukrainian held regions of Southern Ukraine. Rocket and artillery strikes were conducted against Hulyaipole, Nikopol, and Kherson city. UAF intercepted two missiles that were fired on Odesa. [UAS].
Russian Mobilization and Force Support
A Moscow military commissar claimed that Russian authorities plan to extend the service period of a conscript soldier from 12 months to 18 months. The Russian Ministry of Defense immediately denied this as “fake news” reminding the populace that the term of service is set by law. But they failed to mention that the law states that after their 12-month service, they are placed in reserve and can be immediately called up for service.
Instead of prosecuting those Russian soldiers who desert their posts in military trials, Russia is sending them to the front line to fight.
Mariupol is experiencing daily traffic jams as Russia is moving military equipment through the city.
Life in Russian-Occupied Regions
Ukrainian citizens in occupied regions are being forced to assist in the building of defenses.
Other News
The Kremlin was busy with optics to paint a picture that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a competent wartime leader at the same time he is a leader in touch with the Russian people. Towards the former, Putin held a meeting with the joint headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces. Images of him conferring with the top three generals showed Putin as being thoroughly engaged with the planning and execution of the war in Ukraine. But at the same time, Putin continues to participate in meaningless events such as the grand opening of a turkey farm to show that he is also a civilian leader with close ties to the people. All of this is likely to be futile as Putin has no victories to show and is facing a growing angry populace who are tired of seeing their sons and husbands dying and suffering on the front lines.
The New York Times published their investigation of the failed start of the Russian invasion based on documents they acquired from Russian troops about the early days of the invasion. The documents show that Russia’s plans were to quickly take the capital of Kyiv and run over Eastern Ukraine with little resistance. The military leaders only received 18 hours advance notice, and some of the ground troops were not told until one hour before the invasion. Riot police were sent with the first column to secure Kyiv showing that Russia planned on being in Kyiv on those first days and the riot police would be needed to control the Ukrainian population. But these riot police were not trained or equipped to fight battles that they ended up fighting. And Russia failed to blow up Ukrainian airfields on the first day because they planned on using them to fly in supplies.
CIA Director William Burns said in a PBS interview that Russia is showing no signs of serious negotiations in ending the conflict with Ukraine. Russia is simply trying to get a ceasefire so that they can rest and reorganize their forces, taking away the initiative from Ukraine. Russian leadership continues to talk of their maximalist goals of taking all Eastern Ukraine and placing a puppet regime over the rest of Ukraine.
International Support
Hungary has called for the acceleration of the process of integrating Ukraine into the European Union as another sign a rift has formed with Russia. But Hungary was also clear that the EU must maintain ties with Russia.