UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
Both sides held their lines in Eastern Ukraine, whereas UAF pushed back RF a little around Bakhmut and reentering Opytne.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Svatove – RF unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost territories by launching assaults near Stelmakhivka (10 miles NW) [UAS].
Kreminna – RF unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost territories by launching assaults near Chervonopopivka (4 miles N) and Hryhorivka (7 miles S) [UAS]. RS claim that assaults were also made near Makiyivka (14 miles NW) and Bilohorivka (7 miles S). RS also reported that UAF have progressed a few miles closer to Kreminna.
UAF struck Svatove and Novoselivka (33 miles SE of Svatove) with HIMARS rockets and 155-mm artillery.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
President Putin’s campaign to show him fully engaged as a military leader took a hard hit on Tuesday when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did him one better and visited the frontline battlefield in Bakhmut.
And a further threat was made to Putin’s leadership when Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the private army Wagner Group fighting for Bakhmut, visited the frontlines to meet with Zelensky. It is not known whether the meeting took place. Putin has never visited the occupied regions, let alone approached the front lines. And Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu came the closest when he visited Armyansk, Crimea last Saturday.
Bakhmut – RF have only taken less than 75 square miles around Bakhmut since October 1, and only 35 square miles since November 1. UAF repelled RF assaults near Bakhmut, near Verkhnokamyanske and Pidhorodne (20 miles NE), and near Opytne and Kurdyumivka (within 9 miles S) [UAS]. RF attempted to break through UAF defense lines near Bakhmutske [RS]. A Ukrainian commander reported that artillery fire has dropped drastically as a sign that RF are running out of ammunition. A video was released showing UAF retaking 500 meters of territory north of Opytne. Satellite images show UAF patrolling inside of Opytne as evidence they are back in the city. UAF also made some progress pushing RF out of the outskirts of Bakhmut to the east.
Avdiivka – RF were repelled from assaults near Krasnohorivka (15 miles SW) and Marinka (17 miles SW) [UAS]. RS claim that RF made some gains in Marinka, but even if RF take Marinka, UAF have strong defenses to stop them from going further. RS also claim RF conducted unsuccessful assaults near Novomykhailivka (23 miles SW), Pobieda (20 miles SW, and Oleksandropil (11 miles NE).
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Both sides continue to shell each other across the Dnipro River. RF have been seen fortifying the south around the Kinburn Spit. RF also fired rocket attacks against Nikopol and Kherson city.
UAF continue to attack positions farther beyond the front lines striking RF deployed around Chaplynka (47 miles SE of Kherson city). RF and equipment were also struck in Polohy, Vasylivka, and Kaminka-Dniprovska wounding up to 130 Russian soldiers and destroying ten pieces of military equipment UAS].
A video of a Russian truck exploding in Crimea were published on Russian media sites.
Mobilization and Force Generation
A Ukrainian soldier from Crimea that was forced to fight for Russia, reported that his unit fought alongside Wagner Group soldiers and that they were being killed at a rate three times that of those being wounded. He also noted that many of them were wearing white and red wristbands, which is how criminals in prison are designate who have HIV or Hepatitis.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
President Putin demanded that security services intensify their efforts to combat partisans behind the lines. Russia is being forced to divert resources from frontline troops to combat the growing partisan problem.
Russia held elections in the occupied territories to elect senators to represent the regions on the Russian Federation Council.
Belarus
Russia continues its campaign to establish suzerainty over Belarus, as it hopes to achieve over Ukraine. During his meeting Monday with Belarus Dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Belarus an unspecified number of S-400 air defense systems. Lukashenko had previously rejected the systems as they require Russian military personnel to operate them, thus giving Belarus’ air defense system to Russia. But under growing pressure, he finally acquiesced on Monday.
Ukraine military officials have admitted that Belarus does have a military capable of invading Ukraine effectively if they were so inclined. Russian forces continue to arrive in Belarus and there are now around 30 Russian T-80 tanks deployed in Belarus. Although there has not been observed RF forming strike groups yet, the possibility of an invasion from Belarus is growing.