UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
Ukraine gained ground in Eastern Ukraine moving closer to Kreminna and Svatove. UAF even retook areas around Bakhmut. Evidence is growing increasing the likelihood of a Russian invasion from Belarus from unlikely to low.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
RF unsuccessfully made an assault towards Masyutivka on Wednesday and then Dvorichna on Thursday in their campaign to retake Kupyansk in the northeast of Kharkiv Oblast.
Svatove – RF have made several assaults to retake territory and push UAF away from Svatove over the last three days but were repelled on every attack. Attacks were made towards Pidkuichansk (5 miles NW), Stelmakhivka (10 miles NW), and Novoselivske (9 miles NW).
UAF did advance closer on Svatove by liberating Kolomyichykha which is only 6 miles NW of Svatove.
Kreminna – RF have made several assaults to retake territory and push UAF away from Kreminna over the last three days but were repelled on every attack. Attacks were made towards Chervonopopivka (4 miles N), Dibrova (3 miles SW), Bilohorivka (7 miles S), Ploshchanka (11 miles NW)
UAF continue to push closer to Kreminna currently only a few miles away from Kreminna. RF have shelled UAF in Dibrova and Chervonopopivka suggesting that UAF have entered those settlements. RS even claimed that Ukrainian reconnaissance forces are probing RF positions.
UAF released confirmation that they destroyed a Russian ammunition depot near Kadiivka last week.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – RF continue their main objective of taking Bakhmut but over the last three days were repelled from all attacks and were pushed back in some spots. RF attacked Bakhmut and communities to the north such as Verkhnokamyanske, Vesele, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Berestove, and Soledar. RF also unsuccessfully attacked settlements to the south including Kurdyumivka, Opytne, Ozerianivka, Mayorsk, Klishchiivka, and Niu York. RS claim that RF have entered Andriivka (6 miles S) and Klishchiivka (2 miles S).
UAF have pushed RF out of the eastern edge of Bakhmut and back into the industrial regions in the outskirts of Bakhmut to the east. But even there, RF are not in control as UAF relentlessly launch drone attacks against RF there. UAF also recaptured a trench just under a half-mile west of Ozerianivka. One RS even claims that UAF have entered Ozerianivka.
Avdiivka – RF are not able to conduct an assault on Avdiivka directly as they do not have the troop force there and the UAF have serious fortifications defending the city. Instead, they waged assaults against Vodiane, Pisky, Nevelske, Marinka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiskyi, and Krasnohorivka. All these assaults have been repelled by UAF except for Marinka where RF have taken 80% of the city.
RF make limited attacks on the western Donetsk line, but one was repelled on Wednesday by UAF when RF made an assault on Prechystivka. RF attacked Pavlivka and Prechystivka on Thursday but were also repelled. And RF were repelled on an assault on Neskuchne on Friday.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF this week attempted to retake control over some of the islands in the Dnipro River which UAF are using to shell their troops along the banks of the Dnipro River. RF are strengthening their defense of Southern Ukraine and Crimea in preparation for a UAF counter-offensive to retake the region. RF and UAF are fighting over the Kinburn Spit with RF shelling Ochakiv.
UAF continue to soften up Russian defenses in Southern Ukraine in preparation for such a counter-offensive. UAF continue to make critical hits against concentrations of RF and Russian weapon depots. Satellite images show RF attempting to obstruct satellite imagery by installing coverings over the defense positions. UAF are effectively using satellites to pinpoint RF defense positions. UAF hit a concentration of RF near Skadovsk injuring up to 140 Russian soldiers on Thursday as well as destroying eight trucks loaded with ammunition. On Thursday, UAF struck Russian headquarters in Tokmak.
RF are increasing their naval activity in the Black Sea with satellite imagery showing an increase in Russian submarines near Sevastopol. RF continue to fire rockets at locations in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF shot down a Russian Kh-59 missile over Mykolaiv Oblast on Thursday. RF are shelling residential buildings in Kherson city.
Belarus
The buildup of RF in Belarus is causing concern. Russia claims the troops are there for military exercises, but there is evidence that another invasion of northern Ukraine from the Belarus is a distinct possibility, although still considered a low chance.
First of all, Russian milbloggers are predicting such an invasion by winter or spring. But the question is whether the invasion will be made to retake territory, or as a diversionary tactic to cause Ukraine to divert forces currently fighting in the east to defend Kyiv. A diversionary purpose makes more sense as RF were unable to take Kyiv when they greatly outnumbered UAF and weapons. Now Ukraine’s army is three times larger and is armed heavily with Western weapon systems. Perhaps the attack will be limited to Chernihiv alone.
President Putin met last week with Belarusian Dictator Alexander Lukashenko and will meet again on Christmas Eve in St. Petersburg. This, and the appearance of field hospitals in Belarus point to plans for a northern invasion. Field hospitals are not necessary for military exercises. Also Russian tanks in Belarus are being seen in winter camouflage, again not usually done for military exercises. And on Friday, RF attacked Vysoke in Sumy Oblast and Khatne in Kharkiv Oblast which are along the northern border with Russia. The one missing part that would be necessary for a Russian invasion is the creation of Russian strike forces which have not yet been seen in Belarus.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu presided over a Russian Ministry of Defense Collegium in Moscow on Wednesday. It was a huge Information Operation meant to show the Kremlin leaders are fully engaged in leadership over the war against Ukraine. They announced several military reforms including the formation of new military districts and the raising of the draft age from 18 to 21 and raising the age limit from 27 to 30. But the most significant take home from this Collegium was the verbiage that portends that Russia plans to continue their complete conquest of Ukraine.
Russian media have reported on migrants in Russia being forced to register as volunteers in the Russian army. They are threatened with problems for their families if they refuse to “volunteer”.
Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, leader of the independent army Wagner Group, is running out of convicts in prison to persuade to join his army. He has begun recruiting women convicts now.
An intercepted phone call of a Russian soldiers was caught telling his mother that more Russians die from friendly fire than from Ukrainian fire. Another soldier who had gladly volunteered, was also intercepted begging his sister to get him out of the army. The entire Russian 127th Reconnaissance Brigade has refused to participate any longer in the war due to heavy losses.
Russia passed the third and final reading of a bill granting leniency on Russian soldiers on debt deadlines. A study released on Tuesday reported that two-thirds of Russian soldiers killed were debtors of over $80,000. This is evidence that Russia is recruiting “volunteers” who are in debt and offering to cover their debt for their service.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials have intensified their crackdowns on partisan activity. They have broadened the activities that result in the death penalty to inciting, recruiting, and supporting partisan activity. Partisans assassinated the Russian mayor of Lyubymivka on Thursday. And on Friday, partisans wounded two Russian Security Service officers in Melitopol.
More and more civilian hospitals are being taken over and turned into military hospitals. Russian doctors that run these hospitals refuse to treat Ukrainian citizens. Even morgues are being taken over for Russian military purposes.
Russia is dismantling the Mariupol Drama Theater which had made news when they bombed it full of children. The dismantling is considered a cover-up operation.
Other News
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made his first trip outside of Ukraine since the renewed Russian invasion began on February 24. He flew to the U.S. on Wednesday to meet with US officials.
After President Zelensky up-staged President Putin by visiting the frontlines, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited the front lines on Thursday. But he had claimed to have visited the front a week earlier but was found to be lying as he visited troops in Crimea.
Opposition to the war is growing in Russia. A record number of protestors have been detained.
International Support
Ukraine may finally be able to enforce a no-fly zone at least over one city as the US has agreed to provide Ukraine with one Patriot missile defense system.
The world responded to Ukraine’s call for support by planning on turning off their power for Christmas night in locations all over the globe.