UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF have likely culminated in their offensive against Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and UAF have already pushed RF out of the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. RF are shifting their focus on capturing the much smaller target of Soledar and may have taken Bakhmutske towards that end. UAF have moved closer to Svatove and Kreminna, and the Russian command has already retreated from Kreminna. UAF have also begun pushing back RF in the last remaining 1.6% of Kharkiv Oblast they still occupy.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Kupyansk – RF have been trying hard with little progress in retaking territory in northern Kharkiv toward Kupyansk. But Ukraine has finally released information that has been verified that UAF have been pushing back in this region since Christmas and have liberated Dvorichna, Novomlynsk, and Tavilzhanka. RF claim to have taken Masyutivka, but that has not been confirmed.
Svatove – UAF continue their push towards Svatove. Both sides have acknowledged that Ukraine has liberated Kolomyichykha just ten miles NW. And a RS has reported that UAF have taken a RF stronghold near Chervonopopivka 24 miles S.
Kreminna – RF that were fighting in Kherson and the Donbas, are now being sighted along the Svatove-Kreminna line suggesting that Russia is pulling forces from other regions to plug in holes along the line in a desperation in holding the northern Luhansk Oblast. Around Christmas, though, Russia withdrew its regional command headquarters from Kreminna to Rubizhne, about six miles SE. This created a rumor that UAF had liberated Kreminna, but both sides have reported that Kreminna is still under the control of RF. UAF have already begun firing artillery at the new command center in Rubizhne giving them no rest.
UAF are also firing HIMAR rockets deeper into Luhansk territory striking RF concentrations near Polovynkyne and Shchastia.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – The evidence is mounting that this Russian offensive, like all the others, has culminated and RF will not be able to achieve their objective of taking Bakhmut. So, they have shifted their last breath to take at least one target to brag about – Soledar. When Russia gave up their objective of taking Kyiv and shifted for the Donbas, their goal shifted to take Slovyansk. That became unattainable, and so they shifted their target to Kramatorsk. That too was not going to happen, and so they retreated from Western Kherson to bolster their forces for a final push for Bakhmut. But UAF have repulsed them there as well. RF are no longer fighting as battalions, but as small units of 10-15 soldiers as they did just before they petered out in Western Kherson, suggesting that they have now culminated in the Donbas as well. But they need something to show for their last six months of fighting, so little Soledar has become their last hope. They have been fighting Soledar and Bakhmutske since their last victory the opening days of July in taking Lysychansk. They may have taken Bakhmutske since Christmas. RS have made that claim, but there is no confirmation of that yet.
Bakhmut – RF are no longer advancing on Bakhmut and are actually being pushed back by UAF. RF were once in the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut but have been pushed out into the industrial zone farther east. RF are nearly out of artillery and cannot sustain an offensive in this region.
Avdiivka – RF have been stopped in taking all of Marinka but have taken control of most of the city. Attacks directly on Avdiivka have almost ceased as RF are running out of ammunition.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF seem to be grouping together in one location for an offensive against the Ukrainian line of defense, but there is no evidence of new troops entering the region. If they do attempt an offensive, it will most likely not amount to much.
RF continue the shelling of cities in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts at civilian targets. Kherson city was struck 71 times on Christmas Eve alone resulting in the deaths of 16 civilians and injuring 65 others. Instead of using this ammunition against UAF in the Donbas where it is greatly needed, they are using them against Ukrainian civilians in heavily concentrated cities. This is further sign that Russia has given up on winning this war tactically but are focused on using terror to win this war.
Belarus
The big question is whether an invasion from Belarus will occur this winter or spring. Evidence since Christmas for that include:
- Satellite footage showing about 40 tanks heading for Belarus from Russia
- The Russian deployment of one motorized rifle battalion and two tank battalions along the Belarus-Ukraine border
- The confirmation of at least 10,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Brest, Belarus.
- The return of an unspecified number of Russian MiG-31 interceptors returning to airfields in Belarus.
- The confirmation of Russian Iskander tactical ballistic systems and the S-400 air defense system deployed in Belarus.
- The arrival of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army arriving in Belarus on Tuesday (but at a much-reduced fighting force since taking heavy losses in Eastern Ukraine).
Military analysts have upgraded their prediction of such an invasion from unlikely to low noting that they have yet to see and Russian strike force forming in Belarus and that the size of enemy forces on the border is not increasing. And those 40 tanks could also be heading for the Donbas as well.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation
Russia has been offering citizenship and passports for Central Asian migrants who desire to move to Russia in exchange for a short period of service in the Russian army. But Russians are generally racist against these migrants and are complaining about allowing them to live in their midst.
Eight Russian soldiers were arrested in Moscow who had deserted their positions on Monday. Two others were killed under suspicion they were planning sabotage of their recruitment center. Russian civilians continue to carry out attacks on recruitment centers. A pensioner couple were arrested after an arson attack in Podolsk of a recruitment center, and another soldier committed an act of self-harm at another in Syktyvkar.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russia has simplified the process of receiving citizenship for residents in the occupied territories. It also has automatically declared that children under 14 years of age qualify for Russian citizenship. But the need for this simplification shows the resistance of Ukrainians in the occupied regions applying for Russian citizenship.
Russia continues to deploy more police into the occupied territories to fish out partisans. More and more Ukrainian citizens are being kidnapped by RF searching for evidence of partisan activity.
Russia continues to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical treatment. A picture posted on Christmas day shows 240 Ukrainian children alone arriving in Moscow.
All churches not under the control of the Russian Orthodox Church are being shut down, including all Evangelical churches.
The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations released a report that 150,000 residents of Kherson Oblast were forcibly deported to Russia prior to the Russian retreat from Western Kherson.
A Rroma family was slaughtered, including three children, by Wagner Group mercenaries in Makiyivka simply because the Russian troops wanted their car.
Russian occupation authorities have begun nationalizing Ukrainian homes who have fled the region. All residents have a limited time to appear before local authorities to show their proof of ownership. Those who have fled the region will be unable to do this and their homes and property will become property of the Russian state.
Other News
Statements coming from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin, is setting the field for the confiscation of wealth from wealthy Russian families who have not been supportive of the war. Prigozhin has directly called for just that stating that Russia needs to confiscate the possessions of those families that have even ignored sacrificing their wealth for the war against Ukraine. Putin has been more indirect stating that Russians whose wealth is abroad “represent a danger” to Russia. The Russian legislature is already debating a bill that will raise the taxes on those families who have family members that fled Russia to avoid conscription.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to acknowledge the existence of Ukraine by not referring to the Ukrainian government in its call for peace talks. Instead, Putin is calling on Western powers to come to the table and force Ukraine to accept peace on Russia’s terms. The Russian government is putting pressure on the West to stop supporting Ukraine. This is the only way that Russia can win this war, by convincing those in the West to stop Ukraine from fighting for their freedom, and the freedom of the whole world.
UAF conducted a drone attack on Engels Airbase in Saratov, Russia on Christmas night. Russia claimed to have shot down the drone over the airfield, but that three Russian soldiers were killed as the drone crashed over the base. But that means the drone traveled over 300 miles into Russian territory without being detected, which is not good news for Russia nor its air defense system.
Ukrainian Orthodox Churches broke tradition and celebrated Christmas on December 25 instead of their traditional January 7 date to show their solidarity with Europe and their antipathy towards the Russian Orthodox Church.
International Support
The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives passed a last minute $1.7 trillion budget for 2023 which includes another $45 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
A Christmas convoy of 50 trucks driven by retired U.S. officers decorated with purple hearts arrived in Kyiv carrying $3.2 million worth of generators to keep hospitals, schools, orphanages, and government buildings operating after the last Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gave a televised Christmas address of support for Ukraine.