UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
It was a bloody holiday on both sides. Russian missiles and drones rained terror on Ukrainian civilians, and hundreds of Russian soldiers died in a missile attacks in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Svatove – RF were able to move towards Makiyivka on Monday, but it probably was a trap set by UAF. These RF occupied a school where 600 soldiers slept while the basement was packed with explosives. UAF then fired a missile on this powder keg killing around 400 Russian soldiers on New Year’s Eve resulting in the most devastating attack on RF since the start of the invasion last February.
Kreminna – UAF continue to inch closer and closer to Kreminna having advanced 1.5 miles over the last week. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai predicts that Kreminna will fall in the early days of 2023. He also reports that Russia is sending reinforcements every day to the region to prevent this from happening.
After a lull over the New Year’s holiday, RF attempted an assault on Ploshchanka, but the entire armored group was eliminated. RF were also repelled from three separate attacks towards Kupyansk. Satellite imagery has shown that RF have advanced marginally towards Bilohorivka.
UAF struck a Russian barrack in Alchevsk, two weapon depots in Kadiivka and Bryanka, and a Russian military base in Hirs’ke on Sunday. And on Monday, UAF struck RF concentrations near Pervomaiskyi, Chmyrivka, Svatove, and Rubizhne with HIMARS rockets.
RF struck a police station in Lyman with a S-300 missile on Sunday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
The pace of Russian attacks has noticeably slowed supporting the belief that the Russian invasion has culminated. Previously RF averaged firing 60,000 artillery shells a day, but now are down to 20,000 shells per day. There is also a shifting of troops to defend the Eastern Ukraine theater.
Soledar – UAF are retreating from some strongholds around Soledar and Pidhorodne according to RS as RF attempt to cut off a section of the M-03 highway. Satellite images show that RF have taken some regions north of Soledar.
Bakhmut – RS claim that RF are back in the eastern suburbs of Bakhmut, but this is unlikely as RF are no longer able to fight in battalions but are fighting in disjointed small units of 5-15 soldiers. Satellite images have shown RF have advanced a little west of Zelenopillya and further into Klishchiivka.
Avdiivka – RF continue to be repulsed from all attacks towards Avdiivka.
Vuhledar – The RF offensive around Vuhledar has come to an end and have shifted to a defensive posture.
UAF struck a concentration of RF in the Viktoriya Hotel Donetsk city on Monday. The director of the Russian military investigation department Yevgeny Ryabkov was killed in the attack.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Small units of RF continue to attempt to perform acts of sabotage by crossing the Dnipro River to the western bank and then retreating to their side. RS claim that RF broke through UAF defense line just west of Dorozhnianka, but there is no confirmation of this yet. The following day RS released video evidence for the taking of Dorozhnianka, but it was quickly discredited as old footage of another location. RS then claimed that all Dorozhnianka was captured on Monday and RF have advanced towards Myrne.
UAF have landed troops on Velykyi Potomkin Island in the Dnipro River. UAS claim the island has been liberated, but that is not yet confirmed.
RF continue to shell Kherson city, Nikopol, and Ochakiv on nearly a daily basis. RF launched five military drones north into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Monday, but all were shot down.
The occupied city of Oleshky came under intense fire over the weekend, but it is not clear whether Russia is firing on the city in a false flag, or UAF are firing on the city. It was confirmed that UAF did hit a concentration of RF near Oleshky though. UAF also shelled RF positions in the rear areas around Tokmak, Tytove, Chernihivka, Polohy, and Berdyansk.
UAF fired rockets on New Year’s Eve on a large RF concentration of troops in Chukalivka killing and wounding 500 Russian military personnel. UAF fired rockets on Sunday hitting a concentration of RF near Polohy and Velyka Bilozerka wounding 115 Russian soldiers and destroying an ammunition depot and five pieces of equipment. Another rocket hit a concentration of RF on Sunday near Fedorivka killing 200 Russian soldiers. On Monday, UAF struck the Crimea region placing air defense systems on alert in Sevastopol where the Russian fleet is stationed, and explosions were recorded in Dzhankoi. Also on Monday, rockets killed more than 175 Russia soldiers as UAF fired rockets on five separate concentrations of RF in rear areas. Another weapons depot and 12 pieces of equipment were destroyed. Rocket also struck the Arabatska Spit in Crimea on Monday causing panic among local authorities. A Russian soldier posted a picture of him in front of a stud farm complex where his troops were based. The following day UAF struck the complex. That same day a military hospital was struck in Tokmak which was confirmed by satellite images.
Belarus
The Machulishchy Military Airfield in Belarus is being retrofitted to become a logistics hub for the Russian Air Force. This and the ongoing training of joint forces of Russian and Belarusian troops might be an indication that an invasion, or at least a diversionary tactic, is being planned from Belarus. But evidence against this include no formation of a strike force and the removal of all artillery shells from Belarus to the front lines in Eastern Ukraine. The chances of such an invasion are still considered low.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held the first meeting of the newly formed Kremlin mobilization working group on Sunday. The working group was formed to deal with the growing criticism of the Russian mobilization efforts.
Bills in the Russian legislature have been proposed to limit the rights of men who have fled Russia to avoid conscription. The bills include provisions to confiscate their property, restrict them from working in Russian companies (from abroad), and to declare them traitors and preventing their return to Russia in the future.
Russia has begun offering land plots in Crimea to certain soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have shown the Russian hand that another mobilization is coming soon when he reported that Chechens were overrepresented in the first mobilization by 254% and thus will not be mobilized in the second wave of mobilization.
A Molotov cocktail was thrown at the gate of a military recruitment center in Moscow on Sunday.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Ukrainian partisans blew up the occupation police department in Nova Kakhovka on Sunday.
Russian occupation police conducted raids in occupied Tokmak in search of partisans on Sunday. One Ukrainian man was arrested for transmitting information on RF positions.
Hospital in Bilovodsk and Tokmak were seized on Sunday and emptied of Ukrainian civilians to care for hundreds of injured Russian soldiers. And medical workers and equipment were taken from Kalinin to Mariupol to care for troops stationed there.
All businesses in occupied Kherson Oblast were nationalized and citizens must accept Russian passports to receive any social benefits.
Both the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics have adopted a new constitution formally recognizing Russian control of their regions.
Russia has banned the use of the Ukrainian hryvna as currency in occupied territories as of January 1. But Ukrainian citizens in the region are largely ignoring the ban.
Russia has raised the cost of utilities in the occupied regions by 2.5 times to bring them up to par with the cost in the rest of Russia.
Other News
Russian conducted a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine early Sunday morning firing 69 cruise missiles and 23 drones. UAF shot down 54 of the missiles and at least 11 of the drones, but those that got through did extensive damage to energy infrastructure primarily in Lviv, Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donetsk oblasts. Other targets were hit in Sumy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Khmelnitsky, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts. One of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense missiles was shot down by Belarus and the wreckage fell on Belarussian territory. The attack commenced shortly after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had rejected Ukraine’s peace offer as they do not recognize the existence of Ukraine as a country and would only hold peace talks with the U.S. and Europe.
Ukraine Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with BBC on Sunday that the war with Russia was at a deadlock with no end in sight. He said that Ukraine cannot defeat Russian troops due to a lack of resources or without heavy offensive weapons such as tanks. And the Russian offense has also culminated and no longer can make gains as well.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on Sunday a new law that authorizes a sentence of life imprisonment for anyone who assists, trains, or organizes sabotage attacks against the Russian military. Even participation in such activity would receive 5-10 years imprisonment. Putin also signed a new law exempting military and law enforcement officials from the requirement to declare their income public. This will allow officials in occupied territories to enrich themselves by personally confiscating Ukrainian assets.
On Monday morning, Russia launched another 16 drones against Ukraine, but all were shot down by UAF. But some of them still did damage as they fell from the skies, one hitting and administrative building in Kyiv. Even though most military drones provided by Iran are shot down, the missiles used to shoot down the drones are extremely more expensive than the drones, making it still worth it to Russia to launch them.
Then on New Year’s Eve another wave of missile and drone attacks were launched. 20 cruise missiles and ten drones were launched. All the drones and 12 of the missiles were shot down. Also, on that day another prisoner exchange was made with both sides returning 82 POWs. In addition, nearly 60 Ukrainian national guardsmen were also returned.
Russia launched another 45 military drones against Ukraine on Monday, but all were shot down. Another 39 were launched on Tuesday, all of which were shot down as well.
International Support
International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach announced that sanctions against Russia and Belarus will remain in effect for 2023.