UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF continue to take marginal amounts of territory as they fight to take more and more of Donetsk Oblast, but at such a high rate of attrition it is actually a victory for Ukraine as they territory they are currently fighting for has no strategic value.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Svatove – UAS claimed that UAF repelled RF assault on Stelmakhivka. RS claim that RF stopped UAF sabotage groups NW of Svatove near Kotlyarivka, Novoselivske, and Dvorichna.
Kreminna – UAS claimed that UAF repelled RF assaults near Makiyivka, Bilohorivka, and Chervonopopivka. Russian paratroop forces have arrived in Kreminna to bolster their ability to hold the line of defense. Geolocated footage showed a tank battle near Dibrova, indicating that UAF have made some progress in the forests around Kreminna.
In addition, UAF are targeting Russian assets critical for lines of communication to Svatove and Kreminna. A gas pipeline was attacked by partisans near Lutuhyne 12 miles southwest of Luhansk city leaving 13,000 people without gas. Air sirens also went off in Alchevsk and Stakhanov 20-25 miles west of Luhansk city.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – The Russian information about the Soledar battlefield is tainted by the Wagner Group, the private army of Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, using the information to make them appear as the most competent fighting force in Russia, even better than the Russian army. So, much of what is coming out cannot be trusted without verification. What we can confirm so far is that UAF were forced to retreat from Bakhmutske which the Wagner Group immediately occupied and then entered Soledar. Geolocated images show that UAF are still in Soledar, so the city is contested. RF have reached the center of the city attempting to take control of city hall, but the northern salt mines are at least partially under the control of UAF.
Bakhmut – RS claim that RF have taken Opytne, the southern suburb of Bakhmut, as well as the communities of Paraskoviivka and Krasna Hora. None of this has not been confirmed, but drone footage does show marginal advances by RF in the area. UAS claim that UAF repelled RF assaults on Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, and Zaliznyi.
Avdiivka – RF are not attacking heavily-defended Avdiivka directly, but conducted several assaults at nearby communities of Vodiane, Pervomaiskyi, Krasnohorivka to the north, and Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka to the south. Drone footage released by the Donetsk People’s Republic shows them using incendiary munitions on UAF in Marinka, which is banned by the 1980 Protocol III on Incendiary Weapons of the Convention of Certain Conventional Weapons, in other words, a war crime.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF did not conduct any ground attacks along the Western Donetsk or Southern Zaporizhia line, but RS did claim that UAF are preparing a counterattack near Vuhledar.
RF are moving military equipment to the Henichesk region of Kherson on the border with Crimea expecting a UAF counterattack against Eastern Kherson. RF used a smokescreen to conceal this operation. RF also installed dragon teeth to slow down tanks south of Melitopol on the highway towards Crimea.
RF shelled Kherson city with illegal incendiary munitions overnight which is a war crime.
UAF are purposefully lowering the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir which suggests they are planning an assault on Enerhodar, where the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant is, which is just across the reservoir from Ukrainian held positions. UAF have also significantly increased their level of shelling along the Zaporizhia border suggesting a counterattack is coming soon.
RS claim that drones were shot down over Melitopol and the mayor admitted explosions at the Hidromash factory in the city. UAF also struck RF concentrations in Tokmak, Enerhodar, Mykhailivka, Oleshky, Nova Kakhovka, and Hola Prystan also suggesting a counterattack is coming soon.
RF continue to fire rockets into Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Belarus
Russia continues to move large amounts of weaponry into Belarus for repair and maintenance. But there is no indication of troop buildup on the border or the formation of a strike force keeping the chances of a Russian invasion from Belarus as low.
Russian Mobilization
The second wave of Russian mobilization seems to be planned for January 15 with the goal of recruiting and training another 500,000 RF.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian police in occupied Starobilsk are submitting their resignations in large numbers as partisans are increasing their attacks on law enforcement.
Businesses in Russian occupied regions continue to use the Ukrainian hryvna currency despite threats and raids. ATM machines that dispense hryvna are being replaced by those that dispense the Russian ruble.
Ukrainians are being forced to exchange their Ukrainian passports for Russian passports. Russian passports are now required to receive a real estate loan, register a car, receive license plates, and receive a driver’s license.
Russia authorities have announced that 50,000 Russian civilians are being moved to Mariupol from Russia. More and more television channels are broadcasting in the Russian language.
Pregnant women were removed from a maternity hospital in Antracyty as the hospital is being converted into a military hospital.
Other News
Russia claimed they killed 600 Ukrainian servicemen in an attack in Kramatorsk in retaliation for the hundreds of Russian troops that were killed last week in the attack in Makiyivka. But European journalists stationed in Kramatorsk visited the two barracks that Russia claimed to have hit and reported that the buildings were missed with huge holes in front where the bombs had hit. The reporters also shared that even if the buildings which served as university dormitories were hit, there would be no loss of life as they are empty. So why would Russia lie and give such precise locations which could be checked and verified? The answer lies that it does not matter as the report of the false attack was not meant for a western audience, but for a Russian audience who would not have access to the refutation from western sources.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill removing Russia from the Council of Europe’s Criminal Law Convention of Corruption on the grounds that the Council of Europe terminated Russia’s membership in the Group of States against Corruption (GRECO). Since Russia no longer has a vote, by removing themselves, they no longer are required to cooperate. Russia needed to remove themselves so that they could institutionalize corruption as part of their strategy to bribe economic elements of Russia for their support of the war against Ukraine.
RF fired a rocket in a market in Shevchenkove in Kharkiv Oblast killing two civilians and injuring six others. Two civilians were killed in a massive artillery attack on the village of Kurakhivka in Donetsk Oblast. And one woman was killed in a strike against an apartment building in Kherson city.