UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF have taken Soledar and maybe even Opytne and Marinka. UAF continue advancing closer to Kreminna.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Kupyansk – A major RF assault was made against Hrianykivka (33 miles NW of Svatove) but RF retreated after heavy losses.
Svatove – It was confirmed that UAF liberated Pidkuichansk (5 miles NW) last Sunday. RF continue their focus of attacks on Stelmakhivka but continue to be repelled.
Kreminna – Geolocated footage shows Russian tanks firing on UAF just west of Ploshchanka (11 miles NW) which confirms UAF have gained ground. RF unsuccessfully launched attacks against Chervonopopivka and Bilohorivka.
UAF continue to strike Russian troop concentrations with HIMARS rockets. On Tuesday, they hit Chornukhyne and Zolote.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – The Wagner Group, private army of Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, launched an attack on Soledar last week. They had been part of the campaign against Bakhmut but separated themselves to build their reputation by attacking the easier target of Soledar. By Tuesday they had reached the center of the city, and by Thursday had captured the city, with maybe a few pockets of UAF still in the city. It is believed that Prigozhin had gotten wind of a campaign of Russian President Vladimir Putin to boost his reputation at the expense of Prigozhin (see story below under Other News) and thus launched this campaign to make him the big hero of Russia. Wagner Groups also claimed to have taken Pidhorodne and reached Krasna Hora, but this has not yet been confirmed.
The capture of Soledar does not help in the taking of Bakhmut as it does not cut off any supply lines to UAF in Bakhmut. Strategically, Soledar is not significant, which is why UAF did not waste the lives of its troops in defending the city. Video footage of Wagner Forces walking over the dead of their own forces as they advanced showed the tremendous toll the taking of Soledar has taken on RF.
Bakhmut – Meanwhile RF under the Ministry of Defense continue their hopeless campaign in taking Bakhmut. All attacks on the city continue to be repulsed as well as attacks on surrounding communities. RS claim that RF have captured all Opytne, the southern suburb of Bakhmut. But this has not been confirmed. Geolocated footage does show that RF have made advancements in Opytne.
Avdiivka – RF conducted assaults around Avdiivka but have been repelled of all attacks except perhaps Marinka. RS claim that RF have recaptured Marinka with geolocated footage tending to support these claims.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF and UAF continue to shell each other across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. UAF shot down a Russian helicopter over Kherson city.
RF also shelled Ochakiv six times on Tuesday in Mykolaiv Oblast across from the Kinburn Spit.
UAF shelling and rocket attacks in the rear areas of Southern Ukraine have taken their toll on RF who are now moving their forces back. Drone launching centers are being moved back from the front lines. And Melitopol, which was supposed to be the logistics center on bringing military equipment into the region, is now mostly performing maintenance and repair work.
Russia is importing Russian engineers to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant as the Ukrainian engineers continue to resist accepting Russian passports.
Belarus
For the first time, the Ukrainian General Staff did not report that they have not observed RF forming a strike group in Belarus on Tuesday. This might indicate that they now have observed such activity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Russia is preparing for another escalation but did not specify where this was happening. RF continue to be sent to Belarus, but not directly to the border. But on Wednesday, President Zelensky stated that an invasion from Belarus is still unlikely, and the omission was corrected with a statement that a forming of a strike force in Belarus has not been observed.
On Thursday, Oleg Salyukov who was the Commander-In-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces has arrived in Belarus to take control of the joint military exercises being conducted between Russian and Belarusian forces. And the ban on civilian aircraft over the border regions was extended through April. Placing such a high-level commander over exercises and extending the closed airspace does not portend well. But there was no change in the number of troops on the border or any observance of a strike force forming.
Russian Mobilization
Russia continues to deny that a second mobilization is coming and has told Russian citizens to ignore the “false” reports. But advertisements and recruit centers are popping up all over Russia and a printing house in Saratov is preparing for many summonses.
Russian occupation forces are recruiting Ukrainian citizens in occupied territories to join the Russian army. They have lowered the standards and are recruiting those with disabilities to serve as drivers. Thirty such recruits, four of whom were disabled, were sent to the front lines after only two days of training.
The Russian government is working out a deal to exempt IT workers from conscription in order to lure them back to Russia after they fled during the first mobilization.
A video was released from the 10th Company of the 3rd Battalion of the 392nd Motorized Rifle Regiment showing the unlivable conditions and lawlessness they have been forced to endure over the last eleven months.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
It was confirmed on Tuesday that Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian weapons depot in Melitopol last Sunday. With the rising activity of partisans, Russian occupation officials are stopping more and more civilians and inspecting their phones for evidence of partisan activity. A social media campaign has started allowing Russian sympathizers to report on their neighbors if they suspect them of partisan activity. Monetary awards are offered for such information.
Russia continues to import doctors from Russia into the occupied territories as Ukrainian doctors continue to refuse to treat wounded Russian soldiers.
$2.6 billion has been allocated for the forceful removal of Ukrainian citizens from the occupied regions into Russia proper, to be replaced by Russian citizens within Russia. This is part of an ethnic cleansing operation which is illegal under international genocide rules.
Russian occupation authorities have not been successful in ending commerce being conducted with Ukrainian hryvna currency. Occupation police are stopping citizens to confiscate their phones to see if they have applications for Ukrainian banks.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin is feeling more threatened by the growing power of the “siloviki” (or strongmen) of Ukraine who lead their own private armies. The two most powerful are Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, and Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechen forces. As more and more of the milbloggers are becoming critical of the Russian Ministry of Defense and seeing these two men as the heroes in the war with Ukraine, Putin has made some decisions to bolster the power of the Ministry of Defense in the eyes of the Russian people.
On Tuesday Colonel General Aleksander Lapin, who had been the commander of the Central Military District as well as forces fighting in eastern Kharkiv and northern Donetsk, was appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces. Lapin rose to prominence as he led the attack that eventually captured Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the last major territory taken by RF. His popularity was short-lived as he was the leader at the fall of Lyman and the loss of Kharkiv Oblast. Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s relentless criticism of him led to his dismissal. Although his new elevation does not put him in direct control over and RF on the front, it was a message to the Siloviki that Putin was till in charge.
The milbloggers blew up over Lapin’s new appointment blaming him for RF losses in the war in Ukraine. The most prominent milblogger is former commander of the Donetsk rebel army Igor Girkin. He even went as far as to write that Putin should be removed as the leader of Russia, although he quickly rolled that back by stating that he meant after the conflict is resolved.
Then on Wednesday, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov was also appointed as the Commander of the Joint Grouping of Forces placing him directly over all troops fighting in Ukraine, including the Wagner Group and Chechen forces. He replaced Army General Sergei Surovikin who was demoted to Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force.
This is another setback for Prigozhin as General Surovikin was his personal favorite who he was trying to maneuver to become the new Minister of Defense. By placing Putin’s right-hand commander over the joint fighting forces elevates the role of the Ministry of Defense as well as sends a signal to the Russian people that Putin is still in control.