UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
Russia will win this war, albeit at a huge cost, unless something changes in the mindset of the west. Russia is throwing huge number of men against a growing tired Ukrainian army. With Russian losses ten times more than Ukrainian losses, Russia will soon recruit another half-million men to throw at the front to replace those they have lost. Ukraine can only defend as it does not have offensive weapons to take back strategic positions. Ukraine has the will, but just not the weapons. Unless the West steps up and starts supplying Ukraine tanks and missiles, Ukraine will eventually lose.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Svatove – RF continue their counterattacks against Stelmakhivka (10 miles W) and Makiyivka (14 miles northwest of Kreminna). UAF continue to repel these attacks. Geolocated footage was released on Thursday showing UAF shelling RF in Dzherelne (7.5 miles W). RF shelled UAF near Kreminna itself on Friday, suggesting that UAF are advancing closer to the city.
Kreminna – RF conducted assaults against Makiyivka (14 miles NW), Ploshchanka (11 miles NW), Chervonopopivka (4 miles N), and Bilohorivka (7 miles S). All attacks were repelled. UAF continue to move closer to Kreminna.
UAF fired rockets on concentrations of RF on Friday near Rubizhne (5 miles west of Kreminna) and Tarasivka (19 miles NE of Svatove).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that RF had captured Soledar on Thursday without giving any mention of the Wagner Group, the private army of Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who were the actual fighters who captured Soledar. The announcement created such a backlash, that six hours later the MoD specifically recognized the Wagner Group and tried to cover their snub by saying that the RF fight as a heterogeneous outfit and when they announced RF had taken Soledar, they included the Wagner Group as part of the RF. When Prigozhin was asked about his reaction to the snub he responded that he could not comment. The reality is that the MoD is in competition with the Wagner Group and is afraid of the growing power and popularity of Prigozhin in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a difficult position as he needs the Wagner Group, so he cannot oppose Prigozhin directly. On Friday, Prigozhin released video footage as evidence that it was his Wagner Group forces that had taken Soledar.
UAS claimed to still have pockets of troops in the city as of Friday morning, but that was unlikely. At most, UAF may still have been fighting in the northwestern suburbs of Soledar as supported by drone footage. RF have taken Soledar at a great cost for a city with no strategic importance. It is estimated that 500-600 Russian soldiers died each day compared to one-tenth of that amount of loss for UAF.
RF continued offensive operations pushing out of Soledar north to Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Sil, as well as pushing south to Krasna Hora and Pidhorodne. RS claim they captured the railway station in Sil, but that has not been verified. RS also claimed that Krasna Hora had been captured, but geolocated footage refutes this claim as UAF are still fighting in Krasna Hora.
Bakhmut – RF conducted assaults against Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Predtechyne, Mayorsk, and Kurdyumivka to surround the city. All assaults were repulsed but the area around Predtechyne has become complicated for UAF. RS still claim that RF have captured Opytne, but that still has not been verified. RF have gained ground in the industrial eastern outskirts of Bakhmut and have reached the pond in the south-eastern outskirts as well. This confirms that Russia has taken Ivanhrad and is now poised to move on the city of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage suggests that RF have made some progress on advancing towards Ozerianivka (7 miles SW).
Avdiivka – UAS reported UAF repelled RF assaults near Vodiane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Marinka. RS claim that UAF are retreating from Marinka, but that has not been verified and geolocated footage shows UAF are still fighting in Marinka. Geolocated footage does indicate though that RF have made advances in Marinka. RS also claim that RF made an assault on Pervomaiskyi.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF unsuccessfully conducted an assault near Velyka Novosilka (34 miles SW of Donetsk city). RF, for the most part, are conducting defensive operations and building fortifications in the region. RF have almost completed construction of modern fortifications along the east bank of the Dnipro River.
UAF continue striking RF in the rear area. Thursday night a deployment point was destroyed in Tokmak, and two explosions were reported in Melitopol on Friday hitting a military base on the premises of a factory.
Belarus
Belarusian and Russian forces continue to conduct joint military exercises in Belarus and officials continue to collect data on Belarusian citizens eligible for military service and have restricted their foreign travel. But the lack of resources, and no forming of a strike group, makes a Russian invasion from Belarus unlikely, and Belarusian forces joining in the invasion as highly unlikely.
Russian Mobilization
The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on Friday that the Russian Armed Forces is planning to raise their Army from the current level of 1.35 million soldiers to 2 million. This is half a million more than previously reported.
The Kremlin is considering calling up the Russian reserves to reach that number in the near term and are planning on using convict labor to meet the wartime demands and labor shortages.
Morale continues to be low among Russian soldiers. One brigade commander polled his troops and only one soldier said he wanted to fight.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order on Thursday to occupation authorities to deport Ukrainian children under the guise of medical treatment. 110,000 children have undergone medical examinations by 450 Russian doctors imported into the occupied regions.
Partisans blew up a car in occupied Berdyansk that was carrying the Berdyansk occupation administration head Oleksiy Kychyhin, but he was uninjured in the attack.
250 residents of Soledar were forcibly deported to occupied Shakhtarsk further behind Russian lines.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin is caught between Russian nationalist and Russian officials on what to do about Russian men who fled the country to avoid conscription. The Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin leads the nationalist faction and has proposed a law to confiscate the property of all Russians who fled the country. But the Kremlin opposes the bill stating that all Russians, even those who fled the country, are equal citizens and Russia to create conditions to entice them to return. Russia has a labor shortage and needs them to return.
Russia launched two waves of missile strikes on Saturday targeting critical infrastructure. 50 missiles and three airstrikes were conducted against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, and other unspecified targets in western Ukraine. An apartment building in Kharkiv was struck killing at least 30 people and injuring another 64. Another 30-40 people are still buried under the rubble and hundreds have been left homeless. Ukraine shot down 21 of the missiles before they hit their targets. Most of the missiles were fired from Belarus and thus too close to effectively shoot them down as they hit their targets in less than two minutes. Russia’s response was that they will kill more Ukrainian civilians in retaliation.
Russia rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a peace summit at the UN stating that Ukraine must first recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts. Russia also refused to recognize Ukraine as a legitimate country and referred to it as a NATO paramilitary company.
The UK has become the first Western power to pledge modern heavy tanks to Ukraine promising to send four Challenger 2 main battle tanks immediately with another eight coming shortly thereafter – and suggesting even more to come. The UK is also sending more artillery and ammunition, and 30 large self-propelled guns.