UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF are transferring in large numbers to the Eastern Ukraine theater and a major Russian offensive is expected. UAF have liberated Novoselivske. RF have moved north from Soledar towards Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka. RF are advancing gradually in Klishchiivka but have not captured it as they had reported earlier. UAF strikes in Southern Ukraine have resulted in a noticeable reduction of Russian supplies being delivered by rail.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Svatove – Video footage shows that UAF are on the eastern edge of Novoselivske and thus have liberated the town, even though it is totally ruined.
Kreminna – RS claim that RF are advancing gradually along the Makiivka-Zhuravska Balka river line (14 miles NW) and conducted an assault on Chervonopopivka (4 miles N). UAS claim that UAF repelled a RF assault on Bilohorivka (7 miles S). Geolocated footage confirms that RF are holding their position about 3 miles west of Dibrova.
UAS are reporting that RF are preparing for a large offensive operation in Eastern Ukraine based on the large number of troops transferring to the region.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – Geolocated footage confirms that RF have moved north from Soledar and are moving towards Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka.
UAS reported that UAF repelled RF assaults near Soledar, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Krasnopolivka, Sil, and Bilohorivka.
RS claim that RF are moving towards Vesele (5 miles NE). RS continue to claim that RF have completely taken Soledar including the northwest district of Sil. This is in contradiction to UAS claims above. Perhaps UAF still have a toehold in western Sil.
RS are also claiming that RF are moving west and south from Soledar as well towards Blahodatne (3 miles W), Paraskoviivka (3 miles SW), and Krasna Hora (3 miles SW).
The Russian government is finding it hard to explain to its people why so much loss of life was made to capture Soledar which has little tactical significance. At first, they suggested it would result in an encirclement of Bakhmut, but a quick glance at the map shows it does not accomplish that. Then it was said it would force UAF to retreat all the way back to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which it did not as UAF are still slugging it out at least on the outskirts of Soledar. The capture of Soledar does not even impact Ukraine’s supply route to UAF in Bakhmut. Thousands of Russian soldiers died for nothing.
Bakhmut – UAS reported repelling RF assaults against Bakhmut itself and against Pivnichne (14 miles SW). RS refuted previous Russian claim that Klishchiivka (4 miles W) had been captured by RF. Fighting is intense over the battle for Klishchiivka. Geolocated footage does show that RF are making marginal advances near the settlement.
Avdiivka – RS claim that RF conducted assaults near Novobakhmutivka (9 miles NE). RS also claim they are close to capturing Vodiane (5 miles SW) and have forced UAF from the eastern outskirts. RS also claim that they have cleared all high-rise building in Marinka (17 miles SW) and have pushed UAF only control 1000 feet of the western outskirts. RS also claimed to have conducted assaults near Krasnohorivka (14 miles SW), Pervomaiskyi (7 miles SW), and Novomykhailivka (22 miles SW). Some video footage was released purporting to show the aftermath of battles near Novomykhailivka.
UAS reported that UAF repelled RF assaults near Kamianka (3 miles NE) and farther away against Vodiane, Nevelske, Marinka, and Pobieda.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RS claim that RF made assaults against Velyka Novosilka and Prechystivka along the Western Donetsk line.
Satellite imagery has confirmed that UAF strikes in the rear areas of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts have greatly damaged the rail lines making it difficult for Russia to supply their troops in the region.
Video footage also shows RF using illegal incendiary munitions against Kherson city which is a war crime. This is the second confirmed time they have used incendiary munitions against Kherson city in the last ten days.
RF increased their attacks on residential and civilian infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhia Oblast.
The backup external powerline from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant was disconnected briefly for maintenance after suffering repeated power cuts in recent weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that the situation around the plant is precarious.
Belarus
The Russian and Belarusian air force conducted joint exercises. There are still no evidence of Russia forming a strike group in Belarus, but Ukrainian intelligence has noticed that Russian soldiers are being mobilized to Eastern Ukraine after being trained in Belarus. This is evidence that Russia is not preparing an invasion from Belarus.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
The Russian parliament rejected a proposal to exempt doctoral students from mobilization. Eligibility was also expanded to allow convicts to be mobilized and the exemption for fathers with three or more children was also removed.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) arrested deputy chief of the Makiyivka Regional Police Department and seven other policemen for neglecting their duties and detecting and preventing the UAF strike on Makiyivka that killed hundreds of Russian soldiers. The DNR officials are treating Chechen soldiers with greater suspicion.
RF are shelling occupied-Kakhovka to intimidate residents to evacuate so that their homes can be occupied by Russian soldiers.
Russian occupation authorities in Zavodivka, Hornostaivka, and Kairy of replacing all Ukrainian television stations with Russian broadcasting. Russian occupation authorities have also replaced all Ukrainian mobile communication services with Russian operators in the occupied territories.
Other News
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that he will begin implementing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s directive to reform the Russian conventional armed forces between 2023-2026. This includes increasing military personnel from 1.35 million to 1.5 million. With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the reform will return the Moscow and Leningrad military districts and form the new military district Karelia on the Finnish border. These reforms demonstrate Russia’s intent to conduct large-scale war in the future, not just in Ukraine, but against the Baltic States and parts of Finland it wants back. It is unlikely they will be able to accomplish these reforms while the war with Ukraine continues as they do not have the ability to train that many new troops, let alone supply them.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will be giving an address to the nation on Wednesday. It is expected he will make a big announcement, perhaps a formal declaration of war against Ukraine, or the start of a second mobilization.
Serbian President Alexander Vucic called on the Wagner Group to cease breaking international law by recruiting Serbian mercenaries to fight against Ukraine.
The death toll from the Russian missile attack on a Dnipro residential building has risen to 44 as the body of the fourth child was discovered in the rubble. 77 people were wounded and another 25 are still missing.
International Support
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman led a delegation to Kyiv to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky and assure him of the U.S. “steadfast commitment” to Ukraine.
Leaders of Finland, Lithuania, and Poland all cornered German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the World Economic Forum talks in Davos and pressured him to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine.