UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
UAF have begun crossing the Dnipro River and landing on the east bank to test for weaknesses in Russian defenses, possibly in preparation for a counteroffensive. UAF continue their slow advancement towards Kreminna as RF slowly move west in Bakhmut.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Ukrainian intelligence has determined that Russia will likely shift their focus to the Eastern Ukraine theater and launch a decisive offensive campaign in the spring or early summer. The goal will be to push back UAF to Kharkiv and retake all northern Donetsk territory it had lost to Ukraine during its counterattacks last September. Most of the conventional Russian forces that retreated from western Kherson have been moved to Eastern Ukraine, and even some from the Donetsk Oblast theater have shifted to Eastern Ukraine as well.
Svatove – UAF want to start moving their troops to liberate Kuzemivka (9 miles NW) after liberating Novoselivske (9 miles NW) last week, but RF are sending “human waves” of fighters confirmed by geolocated footage against UAF positions to stop them in their tracks. RF must hold on to Svatove and Kreminna to launch their counterattack in the spring or summer and are willing to lose large number of troops to achieve this goal. Ukraine claims to be repelling these attacks as well as daily RF assaults against Stelmakhivka (9 miles W).
Kreminna – Heavy fighting continues over Kreminna which is controlled by RF. Geolocated footage shows that RF have pushed UAF back from Ploshchanka (9 miles NW) with RS claiming to have taken three UAF strongholds in the area. But in the south, it is UAF pushing RF back near Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast (6 miles S) which is confirmed by geolocated footage. Geolocated footage also shows UAF gaining ground towards Kreminna near Dibrova.
Geolocated footage shows a failed assault by UAF against RF near Hryhorivka (7 miles S). UAS claim that UAF repelled a RF assault on Terny (9 miles W) and towards the Serebrianka forest (6 miles SW).
UAF fired HIMARS rockets at Kadiivka (31 miles W of Luhansk city) on Sunday hitting a machine-repair plant that Chechen forces were using as a hospital. On Monday, UAF fired HIRMARS rockets destroying an electrical substation between Zolote and Pervomaiskyi (about 30 miles NW of Luhansk city). And on Wednesday Ukraine fired HIMARS rockets against Kreminna and Rubizhne.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Russian Immediate Objective: Capture Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka
With Russian conventional forces shifting to the Eastern Ukraine theater, fighting in the Donetsk theater has significantly decreased as an estimated 80% of the Wagner Group were killed in the fighting for Soledar and Klishchiivka. UAF fired HIMARS against railroad infrastructure in Ilovaisk to slow down supplies into the Battle of Donetsk Oblast.
Around Soledar – Ukraine finally announced on Wednesday that they had made a strategic withdrawal from Soledar after exhausting Wagner Group forces and shoring up their rear defenses to prevent any further territory from being captured. Since then, Wagner Group forces have tried to push north, west, and south but have been stopped by UAF in all attacks.
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage indicates that RF have made marginal advances in the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut itself reaching Ivano Franko Street.
Wagner Groups have most likely captured Klishchiivka as reported earlier and are pushing north towards Ivanivske to cut off the T0504 highway supply route to Bakhmut. But UAF are holding them off from any more advances. Geolocated footage indicate that RF have captured Pidhorodne (3 miles NE) and have moved farther west. RS claim that RF have also captured Dvorichchia (7 miles N) and Krasnopolivka (9 miles NE) and have entered Paraskoviivka (6 miles NE). None of these claims have been confirmed.
Avdiivka – RF have entered the outskirts of Vodiane (4 miles SW) confirmed by geolocated footage. RS claim that RF have taken Vodiane, but that has not been confirmed.
Marinka – Heavy fighting continues as both sides control half of the city without giving up any territory over the last three days.
Vuhledar – After weeks of a lull in fighting, RF have again begun fighting around Vuhledar. RS have made big claims of captured territory which has all been denied by UAS. Most likely RF are conducting small group attacks in the area to pin down UAF while Russia prepares an offensive operation in Eastern Ukraine.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Despite RS claims of huge advances along the Zaporizhia line, it has all been confirmed false. At most, RF conducted some minor assaults with small groups of 15 soldiers meant to divert troops away from Eastern Ukraine where Russia is preparing their main offensive. About 450 Russian wounded soldiers were transferred to a hospital in Dniprorudne supporting this analysis. But both RS and UAS reported no territorial gains by RF.
Geolocated footage indicates that UAF landed on the eastern side of the Dnipro River and conducted a raid on Nova Kakhovka. The raid shows that RF do not have full control over the eastern shoreline of the Dnipro River.
RF continue to fire incendiary munitions against Kherson city in violation of international law.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed the annual conscription of forces that happens every spring. This is normal activity and does not create any alarms of an invasion from Belarus. Belarus has opened their long-term military warehouses and is providing combat vehicles to the joint Russian-Belarusian regional forces. These are likely being provided for the training of Russian forces, or for Russian use in Eastern Ukraine. This does not signal a preparation for an attack from Belarus. On the contrary, Russian forces have been reduced to 5800 from 10,000 over the last month and there is no evidence of a Russian strike force forming.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
There is a growing war within the military sphere over grooming. The Ministry of Defense wants to enforce grooming standards to increase the professionalism and overall ability to follow commander’s orders. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, commander of private army Wagner Group made up of convicts, argues that his troops have accomplished much more than regular troops and grooming does not matter. Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, argues that the grooming standards go against his troop’s Muslim beliefs. The Russian military is splitting over grooming standards.
The Ministry of Defense has taken a page from the Wagner Group and has recruited 100 convicts into the regular army.
Russian border guards are preventing Kyrgyz migrants from leaving Russia as they are of fighting age suggesting that another mobilization order is coming.
Russia has increased their production of military drone and munitions.
Head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Transport and Infrastructure Development Yevgeny Moskvichev created a storm when he announced amendments that will require all drivers to reserve a date and time to cross the border. He later clarified that he was talking only about commercial drivers.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities are recruiting pro-Russian collaborators in the occupied zone to help them stage elections scheduled for September.
Ukrainian partisans blew up a car being driven by Russian military officers in Mariupol last Friday. On Tuesday, partisans blew up Valentina Mamai in her car in Berdyansk. She was a collaborator and a member of the occupation council.
Occupation police raided a building on Monday in Luhansk Oblast which contained weapons and ammunition used by partisans.
Russian occupation authorities have devised a ten-year school curriculum which will brainwash Ukrainian youth and make them pro-Russian.
Russian occupation authorities are removing books in the libraries that relate to Ukrainian history and identity.
Other News
Russian Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin met with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Monday in Tehran to strengthen relations between the two countries. Since both are under sanctions from western nations already, they have nothing to lose in helping each other evade sanctions. Russia will supply Iran with attack planes and helicopters while Iran will supply Russia with military drones and missiles.
Estimates on total troop losses place Russia with losing 180,000 soldiers to Ukraine’s 100,000 plus an additional 30,000 civilians.
After Estonia ordered the Russian embassy to lower their staff numbers, Russia expelled the Estonian ambassador in retribution, and Estonia responded in kind and expelled the Russian ambassador.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law a new bill that demands a minimum twelve year prison sentence for soldiers who desert and a ten year minimum sentence for those soldiers who disobey a direct order from their commander.
International Support
The US, Germany, Poland, and maybe France have agreed to follow the lead of the UK and provide Ukraine with heavy tanks. The US said on Tuesday that they would send “a significant number” of Abrams M1 tanks. Germany followed suit the same day and pledged to send 14 Leopard 2 main battle tanks. Germany also approved Poland’s request to send 14 Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. France has not yet made a pledge but said they would not rule out sending Ukraine Leclerc tanks. But this is still nowhere near the 300 heavy tanks that Ukraine has said they need to win the war.
The Kremlin continues their campaign to downplay the role of private armies like the Wagner Group under Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin and the Chechen forces under Ramzan Kadyrov. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov stated that “modern Russia has never known such a level and intensity of hostilities” and claimed that the current conflict is the greatest threat to Russia since World War II (did he somehow forget that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine?). He reiterated the role that the Russian military has had over the centuries of defending Russia.
Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.