UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
UAF continue to make marginal advances towards Kreminna, albeit at a slower pace than before. It has been confirmed that RF have taken Blahodatne, and likely have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast)
Both sides continued their offensive assaults. Geolocated combat footage confirms that UAF have made marginal advances towards Kreminna and are at least within 5 miles of the strategic city. But UAS admit that the advance is slowing down.
UAF continue shelling concentration of RF in the rear areas. Geolocated footage indicates UAF fired HIMARS rockets at a military hospital in Novoaidar and RF in Kadiivka. RS claim that HIMARS rockets also hit RF in Alchevsk.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Russian conventional forces have taken over the battle for Bakhmut after it culminated under the Wagner Group forces. This gives Russia the initiative again in the Donetsk region. But Bakhmut is far from falling. UAF will have time to withdraw if they so choose and will unlikely be surrounded and trapped like UAF were in Mariupol. RF are advancing at an average of 325 feet a day. At that rate, it will take them over 400 days to take all of Donbas. It is unlikely they could keep a major offensive going that many days, and way before then, Ukraine will have the tanks promised to them from the West.
It has been confirmed that RF have taken Blahodatne. RS also claim they captured Sacco & Vanzetti village (6 miles N), but there is no evidence yet of this claim.
RF have moved north from Klishchiivka towards Ivanivske and have reached close enough to the T0504 Highway making it unusable by UAF for troop movements or supplies.
RF did take a few more houses in the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
Marinka – RF have managed to reach the center of Marinka.
Vuhledar – The heaviest fighting currently is over Vuhledar. RS claim they are advancing towards the city, but there is no confirmation yet. UAS claim that RF were repelled with heavy damage eliminating the most experienced Russian formations in the region. Geolocated footage does indicate that RF have reached the southern outskirts of Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Western Donetsk – Geolocated footage has confirmed that RF did take Vodiane two weeks ago.
Southern Zaporizhia – Fighting on the frontlines has been minimal, but UAF are striking RF positions in the rear. UAF blew up a railroad bridge in Svitlodolynske. Russian workers who were repairing the bridge from an earlier attack were killed.
Eastern Kherson – RF continue to use illegal incendiary munitions against Ukrainian civilians in western Kherson striking Beryslav and Orikhiv over the weekend.
UAF have conducted several raids across the Dnipro River landing on the eastern bank. They are forced back by Russian artillery attacks, but it shows that Russia cannot defend the whole eastern bank of the Dnipro River and are susceptible to a counterattack over the Dnipro River.
Belarus
Although Russian/Belarusian joint exercises continue, there is no evidence of a Russian strike group forming.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
9000 Russian troops that were mobilized have been released from service after it was shown their conscription was not legal. But Russia is finally providing adequate supplies to those conscripts already serving on the front line.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Nine Tatars in Crimea were arrested under accusations they are members of Hizb ut-Tahrir which only Russia recognizes as a Muslim terrorist organization.
Russian youth movement “Movement of the First” has opened up 14 branches in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The goal of the movement is to teach children patriotism towards Russia.
Russian occupation authorities are forcing Ukrainians to translate all birth certificates into the Russian language. This will give Russia a registered list of all Ukrainian children in occupied territories.
Other News
NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg reported on Monday that Russia has shown no indication to negotiate peace and that all indicators point to Russia’s plan for complete conquest of Ukraine. Russia is mobilizing another 200,000 soldiers and increasing their domestic production of weapons. Ukraine military experts note that Russia is building up forces in the Donbas in preparation for another major offensive in the coming months. Russia has also deepened their economic and military ties with Iran who, with North Korea, are supplying arms to Russia in violation of international sanctions. Iran is also allowing Russia to move funds around banks that they would not normally be able to do because of sanctions. The world will need to apply full sanctions against Iran to stop this, something the Biden administration is not willing to do.
Vladislav Borisenko was found guilty of a terrorist act and sentenced to 12 years in prison for throwing a Molotov cocktail at a military recruitment center last May. He is the first Russian citizen charged under the new law declaring such acts as terrorism. Prior to the new law, he would have been charged with hooliganism and destruction of property and received half the sentence. But Russia is seeking to stop domestic acts of dissent with harsher penalties.
International Support
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees chief, Filippo Grandi, accused Russia of violating international law by placing Ukrainian children up for adoption in Russia.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.