UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
It was a bloodbath as neither side gave up much territory during fighting on Wednesday.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast)
Heavy fighting continues between UAF and RF along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai noted that RF have not yet formed a strike group for a major offensive but are building up forces.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage confirms that RF are making slight advances towards Krasna Hora and on the northeastern, eastern, and southern outskirts of Bakhmut itself. But UAS claim to have repelled most attacks by RF. RS claim to have pushed UAF 2-2.5 miles back from Blahodatne and are pushing north from Klishchiivka towards Ivanivske to cut off the T0504 highway to UAF. Russian Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin denied that RF took Sacco i Vanzetti village on Tuesday as claimed.
Vuhledar – RF conducted no ground assaults on Vuhledar on Wednesday but did continue to fire thermobaric artillery against UAF defending the city.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF are conducting reconnaissance and sabotage raids on the islands in the Dnipro River to prevent UAF from gaining a foothold on them. RF are also continuing their intensive artillery fire on Kherson city for the purpose of degrading civilian morale and to prevent UAF from a counterattack across the Dnipro River. The Kinburn Spit is also under intense fire from both sides making it impossible for either side to gain a foothold there.
UAF fired HIMARS rockets at a Russian military base near Melitopol according to RS.
Belarus
Russia is training Belarusian troops in the use of Iskander missiles they are supplying to Belarus. This will further integrate the Belarusian military with the Russian military. It seems that the Russian-Belarusian aviation exercises have come to an end, but no official statement to that effect has been made.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
A slowdown in the decrease of the Russian prison population suggests that the Wagner Group is not recruiting as many prisoners lately as they had in the past. The prison population has only decreased by 6000 in the last quarter compared to 23,000 the quarter before. The high casualty rate among Wagner Group forces is obviously making it harder for them to recruit criminals.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Tatar partisans killed two Russian military offices with an IED as they were traveling from Sevastopol to Simferopol in Crimea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on Wednesday about restoring residential infrastructure in the occupied regions. He lowered the mortgage rate to 2% and said that work has already begun on restoring kindergartens, hospitals, clinics, roads, and communication networks.
Other News
UAF are not in a state of panic as RF continue to build for a major offensive as early as this month. This is because Russia does not have the equipment or manpower to conduct an offensive along the entire 950-mile frontline with Ukraine. They will only be able to focus on one area, and that will likely be the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts) where UAF have strong defenses. The only strategy that Russia has is to mass forces to outnumber Ukrainian defenders which will result in huge Russian casualties. It is going to be a difficult three months ahead, but UAF are confident they will overcome.
Russia has been conducting an information operation of a potential invasion from Belarus in order to pin UAF along the Belarus border, but that has not been working as Ukraine sees the likelihood of this happening as very unlikely. So, Russia has begun another information operation suggesting that Russia may attack from Russia itself in the northeast and may begin sending small sorties of reconnaissance troops to force Ukraine to defend that long border as well.
Human Rights Watch has accused both Russia and Ukraine of using banned antipersonnel mines.
International Support
Although Israel has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has remained neutral and has not provided Ukraine with any support beyond humanitarian. But that might change. When Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu was asked whether they would provide military assistance to Ukraine, he responded that he was looking into it. Israel would be vital in providing anti-drone systems they have developed against Iranian drones which Russia is employing against Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.