UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
Although Russia has not made little territorial gains in the last two days, it can now be said that Russia has the initiative and has launched their second major offensive focusing on Eastern Ukraine and Bakhmut and Vuhledar in the Donetsk Oblast.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast)
RF have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their second major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The number of attacks by RF has increased dramatically over the past week. Geolocated footage has confirmed RF are making marginal advances towards Dvorichne and RS claim towards Senkivka northwest of Svatove.
Even though so far UAF are holding their ground, evidence of the Russian second major offensive beginning is that three Russian divisions are attempting to gain ground. It may not be in full swing yet, but it has commenced.
Geolocated footage confirms that both sides are fighting for control of Novoselivske. RF also claim to have advanced towards Bilohorivka, but this has not been confirmed.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage confirms RF have made some advancements near Blahodatne and Krasna Hora. RS claim RF have already taken half of Krasna Hora. Although UAF maintain control over Ivanivske, RF are close enough to block usage of the T0504 highway.
Avdiivka – RF did not conduct any ground offensives towards Avdiivka.
Marinka – UAF continue to hold the western half of the city, but with heavy losses it is getting more difficult to hold on.
Vuhledar – UAF conducted a counteroffensive and destroyed up to 30 armored vehicles and inflicted heavy losses on RF.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF did not make any territorial gains in Southern Ukraine. RF continue to shell communities on their side of the Dnipro River to force Ukrainian civilians to move deeper into occupied territory. UAF struck a Russian military base on the eastern shore. UAF also conducted a drone strike on RF in Kardashynia.
RF continue to daily shell Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
UAF have been able to land a small number of troops on the Kinburn Spit.
Belarus
Belarus continues military exercises on their own.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Russia is investing on railroad infrastructure to improve the efficiency of their military logistics.
Russia is working on laws to punish those who fled the country, discredit RF, and support Ukraine. Proposals are being discussed on the confiscation of personal property, removal of state awards, and internet content bans. One politician is even calling for the death penalty.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russia is formalizing bringing the occupied territories into the Russian federation. A minimum level of income, pension payment, sick leave, and other medical benefits are being established.
All churches that are not Russian Orthodox in occupied territories are being shut down and pastors are being arrested.
The Russia Duma is considering legislation that will strip Ukrainian citizenship from civilian in occupied territories. Those who refuse to accept Russian citizenship are being fired from their state jobs including teachers, and pensions are being withheld. In occupied Luhansk, all teachers who refuse to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship will have their salaries lowered by 30%.
Partisans conducted attacks along rail lines in occupied regions.
Other News
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed his nation on Tuesday to share the progress towards capturing Bakhmut and Vuhledar and to set the conditions for a prolonged operation in preparation for the second major offensive.
The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that Russia is not prepared to take Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as they plan for this second major offensive. Russia has a munitions shortage and not enough trained troops to carry out the operation successfully. Russian milbloggers are also cautioning Russia not to make the same mistake as the first major offensive and attempt to take too much. Instead, they are suggesting a focus on smaller steps.
The Russian government has given permission to state energy company Gazprom to create its own private security force to protect their energy assets. But they can be called up by the Russian Ministry of Defense for other purposes if needed.
International Support
Norway announced a $7.3 billion financial aid package for Ukraine over the next five years.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to the UK where he addressed Parliament to a roaring applause of support. The UK supported the idea of providing military jets to Ukraine in the future and would start training pilots now. The UK expanded their Russian sanctions to add six more organizations and eight individuals who are supplying drones to Russia. Zelensky then traveled to France.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.