UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF have made minor advances along the defense line with Ukraine, but at a huge cost of lives and equipment. Near Kreminna where Russia is attacking Ukraine the hardest, they only managed to push back UAF in one forested area by a half mile. They are also slowly advancing on Bakhmut but still not able to claim they have encircled the city.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kreminna – The priority of the RF assaults is along the Makiyivka/Bilohorivka defense line stopping UAF from reaching Kreminna and pushing them back a little. Although most of the attacks are not ground assaults, but massive artillery and mortar fire, RF have pushed UAF back about a half-mile west of Kreminna entering a field east of Yampolivka. The ultimate goal is to recapture Lyman and to use it as a hub to take northern Donetsk Oblast.
Kupyansk – The next main objective in the capture of Kupyansk is the crossing of the Oskil River and the capture of Dvorichna which will cut off a major supply route to Kupyansk. But the immediate objective is to first take Hryankivka across the river from Dvorichna. Some RS claim that RF captured the settlement on Friday, but there is no confirmation of this and other RS and all UAS claim the city is still contested.
Svatove – UAF continue to hold their ground repelling RF assaults towards Stelmakhivka.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – Russia hopes to capture Bakhmut by February 24, the one-year anniversary of the renewed invasion of Ukraine, but that seems unlikely based on their slow progress and the huge loss of Russian lives in the attempt. Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin gives a more reasonable goal of capturing Bakhmut by March or April.
Geolocated footage confirms that RF have made minor advances in the northeast and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut city itself.
The most immediate danger is the fight for Paraskoviivka directly north of Bakhmut. Its capture would make it more difficult for UAF to defend Bakhmut and may result in the decision to abandon the eastern half of the city. Geolocated footage confirms that RF have entered Paraskoviivka and taken the northern suburbs and advanced towards the center. RS have even claimed to have already captured the settlement. But this is not yet confirmed.
Wagner Group has advanced further west from Soledar towards Zaliznyanske. The goal is to gain control of the M03 highway which is one of the two main supply routes into Bakhmut. But if Paraskoviivka has indeed fallen, then the M03 is already cut off from UAF. RS claim that RF have already crossed the M03 highway and are attacking Dubovo-Vasylivka and Berkhivka, but this is also not yet confirmed.
The other main supply route is the T0504 Highway guarded by Ivanivske. The Wagner Group has restarted its drive towards Ivanivske, but it is not yet known if they have had any progress. UAS are claiming RF have actually been pushed farther back from Ivanivske.
Siversk – RF continue their attempts to reach Siversk from the south attacking Vyimka, Rozdolivka, and Fedorivka. UAF repelled all attacks from the south over the last three days. In the drive for Lyman in the Eastern Ukraine theater, RF also hope to capture Bilohorivka and then Serebrianka to attack Siversk from the north. So far, UAF are holding on to Bilohorivka.
Avdiivka/Donetsk – One of the great embarrassments of the Russian invasion is that UAF continue to occupy Avdiivka, a community that borders Donetsk city to the north. It is probably the most defended city and RF are unable to take it or even encircle it. UAF continue to hold off all RF attempts to encircle the city repelling all attacks south against Vodiane and Sieverne, and Novobakhmutivka on the north.
Marinka – RF have not been able to capture Marinka where UAF still hold on to the western outskirts. RF attempts to encircle Marinka from the south by attacking Novomykhailivka and Pobieda have also been repelled.
Vuhledar – Little is known over the battle for Vuhledar other than UAF occupy the city and RF are attempting to move west of Mykilske towards Pavlivka to cut off the main supply route into Vuhledar. UAF have stopped them from this goal.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Russia continues to build defense in this sector expecting that the next major Ukrainian counter-offensive will be to retake Eastern Kherson and Southern Zaporizhia. UAF continue reconnaissance along the Dnipro River looking for weaknesses along the Russian defense line. Geolocated footage showed a UAF assault on a tank under the bridge near Kakhovka.
RF continue to shell Kherson city on a daily basis. Even occupied Chaplynka came under fire. Russia claimed that UAF had shelled the city, but Ukraine accused Russia of attacking the city to blame it on Ukraine and turn the residents towards supporting Russia.
UAF conducted several drone attacks in Crimea. Russia claims they were all shot down, but video footage of a large explosion near Armyansk suggests otherwise. UAF also conducted airstrikes against RF positions near Hola Prystan and Pishchanivk destroying five ammunition depots and an observation post.
Geolocated footage shows RF placing an air defense system on a high-rise building in occupied Sevastopol in Crimea.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
The rivalry between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yevgeniy Prigozhin, leader of the private Wagner Group forces, continues. The only thing saving Prigozhin is his popularity amongst the war hawks in Russia. Putin was forced to acknowledge their contribution to the war effort by promising to provide social benefits to all private military companies, although he did not specifically refer to the Wagner Group by name.
Prigozhin does not dare attack Putin directly, but he released a video on Thursday accusing the R-MoD of not only shutting down his ability to recruit imprisoned criminals but is denying ammunition to his forces. With pictures of piles of dead soldiers, Prigozhin asserted that he is losing a hundred soldiers a day because the R-MoD refuses to supply his troops with artillery. The private Chechen army led by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has distanced himself from Prigozhin and has pledged his allegiance to the commanders of the R-MoD.
Russia is committing larger amounts of airpower in the war against Ukraine and the UK Ministry of Defense reported an increase in air sorties over Ukraine. 80% of Russia’s air force remains intact and is being moved to the border regions with Ukraine. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed concern as Ukraine’s air defense system is not sufficient to defend against the Russian air force.
Russia has replaced all four commanders of the four military districts in occupied Ukraine. None of the commanders who led the unsuccessful initial invasion of Ukraine remain in significant positions within the Russian military structure. And even the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) military spokesman Eduard Basurin was dismissed as the R-MoD begins to merge all armies under their direct control. Prigozhin announced he would meet with the leaders of the DNR to offer his moral support. Prigozhin argues that the DNR commanders have more experience than those of the R-MoD as the DNR has been fighting Ukraine since 2014.
Two Russian soldiers were arrested on Thursday for releasing a video complaining about not receiving the pay they were promised when they voluntarily joined the Russian army. Their unit was nearly wiped out and was disbanded without pay. The following day the two made a public apology as they were escorted to the back of a vehicle for apparent redeployment.
Marina Yarinka, who led the financial department for the Russian Western Military District, fell out of a window to her death after it was revealed that 70% of the funds she was in charge of disappeared. The number of Russian officials falling to their death is on the increase.
The UK MoD released their estimate that Russia has suffered 200,000 casualties in Ukraine, with up to 60,000 of them killed. But this may be low as recent reports of the deaths of 32,000 Wagner Group forces would suggest a higher number of deaths.
Radio Liberty reported about a Russian teacher who was arrested and tortured under a charge of defacing a military recruitment poster in order to get a confession. A Ukrainian refugee from Kharkiv was arrested in Russia for sabotaging a train relay station. And another Russian citizen was fined $2000 for protesting against mobilization last September.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on Thursday confirmed the Russian government’s direct involvement in the war crime of deporting Ukrainian children to Russia for adoption. Lvova-Belova shared that the number of such adoptions is increasing, and that she herself adopted a Ukrainian child. She bragged about how one family in Moscow adopted nine Ukrainian children.
Russia continues its process of integrating the occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia. By March 1 the citizens of the occupied territories will begin paying taxes to the Russian government and the operation of their regions will fall under the Russian budget. Russian President Putin signed into law on Thursday a decree establishing sick leave, maternity and childcare benefits, and support for veterans and disabled persons in occupied territories. It also will raise the retirement age from the current age of 60 in Ukraine to 65, the age of retirement in Russia, to go gradually into effect by 2027. Four additional offices will be opened in annexed territories to speed up the process of exchanging Ukrainian passports with Russian passports. Already, 130,000 Ukrainian residents have received Russian passports.
Russia has introduced new school curriculum into the occupied territories teaching that the regions have historically been a part of Russia and that Polish and Austro-Hungarian influence had forced a “Ukrainization” in the territories necessitating Russia’s invasion. The goal is to erase Ukrainian identity among youth. President Putin also signed legislation on Thursday to recognize academic degrees and titles achieved in occupied territories as legitimate in Russia.
Russia also announced that they are extending the zone of evacuation of Ukrainian residents from occupied territories within 15 kilometers of the Dnipro River to 30 kilometers.
Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko met on Thursday to discuss the integration of Belarus into Russia. An agreement was made in 1999 for 28 actions to bring the two countries into union by 2019. But the process was subsequently stalled by Lukashenko and only 80% of the agreement was fulfilled. The two agreed to move forward on the remaining 20% which deals mostly with customs and tax issues which will turn Belarus into one big factory building arms for Russia. The only remaining programs to be resolved concern humanitarian issues. But Lukashenko made it clear that he will not allow Belarusian forces to participate in the invasion of Ukraine.
Other News
Russia conducted two more massive missile strikes on Ukraine on Wednesday and Friday, but this time conducting them in the night when air defense systems are at their lowest effectiveness and civilian casualties at their highest as people are at sleep in their homes. Russia fired 32 missiles on Wednesday with 16 making it past air defenses and hitting infrastructure targets in Lviv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. A 76-year-old woman in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was killed. Another sixteen missiles were fired on Friday hitting civilian targets in cities of Khmelnitsky and Ukrainsk (25 miles west of Avdiivka). Ukraine reported that two of the four launched in the morning were intercepted but has not yet announced how many others were intercepted.
Russia and Ukraine exchanged 202 POWs in a one-for-one exchange on Wednesday. Of the 101 received by Ukraine, 94 of them had been defenders of Mariupol.
Warhawks in Russia are calling for missile attacks on electrical substations that feed electricity to Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs) to force Ukraine to shut down their NPPs.
During the NATO meetings two weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fell under pressure by NATO officials to replace Oleksii Reznikov as Ukraine Secretary of Defense with a military official. But on Wednesday Zelensky changed his mind and announced that Reznikov would remain in his position as he has done a valiant job leading the war effort.
International Support
Vice President Kamala Harris, addressing the Munich Security Conference, announced that the U.S. has determined that Russia has committed war crimes against Ukrainian civilians through murder, torture, rape, and deportation.
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen made his first visit to Ukraine since the renewed Russian invasion to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Apart from sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Israel has remained neutral in the conflict. But Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu hinted he was willing to consider sending military aid to Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.