UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Russia’s main offensive is pushing UAF back from Kreminna but have had little success in even accomplishing this limited goal. It is also still slow moving towards Bakhmut, but now confirmed that RF have captured Paraskoviika.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RS claimed that RF crossed the border on Sunday between Russia and Ukraine north of Kharkiv and captured two unspecified border settlements and even increased their attacks in Sumy Oblast. Although this has not yet been confirmed, it is likely an operation to force Ukraine to commit forces to defend the Russian/Ukrainian border rather than send those troops into the battle in Eastern Ukraine.
Kreminna – Geolocated footage indicates that RF have made marginal territorial gains towards Torske (9 miles W). But everywhere else UAF are holding their ground.
Kupyansk – RS report that RF are making a slow progress towards Kupyansk, and that Ukraine has ordered an evacuation of Kupyansk in anticipation of surrendering the settlement. But UAS claim that all attacks in the region are being repelled.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage shows RF removing a Ukrainian flag from a building in Paraskoviivka (3 miles N) confirming that RF have captured the city. RS claim that RF have moved towards the M30 highway and are now attacking towards Berkhivka and Yahidne. But as of now, Ukrainian tanks are still freely using the M30 highway. Geolocated footage also shows RF continuing to gain ground in the northeastern and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut itself. RS also claim that RF are trying to retake territory around Ivanivske they lost last week during a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Avdiivka/Donetsk – There were no significant battles in this area over the last two days.
Marinka – RS claim that RF are fighting for the last UAF stronghold in the western outskirts.
Vuhledar – RF continue to attempt assaults towards Vuhledar but mostly artillery and mortar fire, not ground assaults. Geolocated footage confirms that RF had some success last week in moving towards Vuhledar from the south but bogged down over the weekend.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF are preparing for an expected major Ukrainian counter-offensive in Southern Ukraine by moving more troops into defensive positions and conducting limited positional assaults to gain better ground. This is especially true for the area around the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant which would have to be a main target in the early days of such counter-offensive. Machine guns can even be seen at the top of the plant towers
RF reconnaissance activity has greatly decreased in the Dnipro River delta also suggesting that RF are preparing for defense. But RF continue to fire rockets and artillery against Kherson city and deeper in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF also fired artillery at occupied Hola Prystan and accused Ukraine to engender anti-Ukrainian sentiment amongst Ukrainians living in the occupied territories.
UAF continue to soften up RF in Southern Ukraine by attacking along strategic supply routes. UAF are also conducting drone attacks on RF just over the Dnipro River from Kherson.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Russia is finding it difficult to repair air defense systems that Ukraine continues to target in occupied territories as they lack parts and the ability to transport under combat conditions. Many have been dismantled instead and sent back to Russia for repair. This is greatly weakening Russia’s air defense capabilities along the frontlines.
Russia reported that they have increased the production of missiles and have brought their stocks back up to nearly 50% of what they were last year when they launched their renewed invasion. But most likely this is cover for the delivery of such weapons from Iran and China. Iranian cargo flights are arriving in Moscow on a daily basis bringing weapon systems and components.
Ukrainian intelligence released an audio intercept on Sunday detailing significant desertion among Wagner Group convict recruits. The audio purports that 200 Wagner Group convicts deserted with their weapons just south of Vuhledar. The intercept also revealed 80 Russian soldiers were killed in an attack due to one of the soldiers using his cellphone and giving up their location.
Life in Russian Occupied Territories
Russian occupation authorities have nationalized 700 objects of movable property and real estate in Crimea worth $10 million from Ukrainian businessman accused of unfriendly actions against Russia and maintaining connections with the Ukrainian government.
Occupation authorities have increased the wages of teachers in the occupied regions to $66 a month which brings them to the same pitiful level as teachers in Russia.
Other News
The rebel armies of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR) were officially absorbed into the R-MoD on Sunday. Russia denies that any DNR and LNR officers were dismissed. It was previously reported that DNR Militia Spokesman Eduard Basurin and been dismissed. It must be noted that the timing of this in the midst of a major offensive is highly irregular and suggests political, rather than military interests, were at the forefront. The R-MoD likely did this now as they know they cannot achieve the objective laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin and wanted to absorb the rebel armies while they are still in Putin’s favor.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private Wagner Group army, again reported that his volunteer forces are no longer receiving artillery shells from the R-MoD and are suffering twice as many casualties as a result. It is unlikely that the R-MoD is not providing artillery cover for the Wagner Group forces but may have taken away their privilege to independently use artillery systems forcing them to fight alongside R-MoD forces. For his part, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is trying to stay neutral by praising both the R-MoD and the Wagner Group forces.
The R-MoD warned that Ukraine is planning on attacking electrical infrastructure supporting Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs) as a false-flag attack in which they will blame on Russia. This is likely an information operation designed to give Russia cover when they do attack these infrastructures to force Ukraine to shut down their NPPs. This last week several NPPs have come back online, and we have not lost electricity as a result all week.
International Support
US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv just four days before the first anniversary of Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine and announced another $500 million in military aid including howitzer shells, anti-tank missiles, and air surveillance radar. The US did notify Russia in advance to avoid any “accidents”. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to US concerns that Ukraine cannot defend Bakhmut and launch a counter-offensive. He said that because of the large number of Russian casualties, Ukraine would continue to defend Bakhmut as long as possible but would retreat before the city is encircled. He also said plans are continuing for a counter-offensive in the Spring and that Russia is nearly culminating in their recent counter-offensive and Ukraine will soon take back the initiative.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, suspicious that China is providing Russia with lethal military aid, warned Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference, that such assistance would have “serious consequences”. And to back that up, the US placed sanctions on the Chinese Changsha Tianyi Space Science and Technology Research Institute Company for providing satellite imagery of Ukraine to the Wagner Group forces.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.