UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
UAF and RF made marginal advances in Donetsk Oblast. RF seem to have changed their strategy of encircling Bakhmut and forcing UAF to evacuate and are now coming down on the city from three sides. But Bakhmut is a heavily defended city, and this will prove to be very difficult and at great loss of life.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kreminna – No confirmed changes were made on the ground. RS are mixed on the results of a UAF counter-offensive in the Serebrianka forest area (7 miles SW). Some RS say that RF made marginal gains, while other RS claim that UAF made marginal gains. UAS remained silent.
Kupyansk – No confirmed changes were made on the ground. Fighting continues for control of Hryankivka.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – The RF capture of Paraskoviivka over the weekend presented Russia with another option in their attempt to capture Bakhmut. Already making marginal advances in the northeastern, eastern, and southern outskirts of the city, they seem to be attempting to come down from the north now as well. RF were attempting to encircle Bakhmut and force UAF to retreat, but all attempts towards that goal have been consistently repelled by UAF. Geolocated footage confirms that RF have control over the M03 Highway which is a major supply route for UAF in Bakhmut, but they controlled it a week ago and that did not force a Ukrainian retreat. RS claim that RF have entered northern Bakhmut and have reached the Stupky train station, but that is not yet confirmed. It has been confirmed by geolocated footage that RF have moved west in the south and have taken the Mariupolske Cemetery. Attacking heavily defended Bakhmut, some saying its defenses are even stronger than Mariupol was, will cost many Russian lives.
Avdiivka/Donetsk – UAF repelled all RF assaults in the region and conducted their own successful counter-offensive pushing RF back in the northeast of Avdiivka.
Marinka – RS claimed that RF are fighting for the center of Marinka. If that is true, then UAF have retaken the center of the city. It is confirmed that RF have made marginal advances near Novomykhailivka.
Vuhledar – Geolocated footage shows that RF have regained the initiative and made some marginal advances near Mykilske to the south of Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Russia continues to dig in defenses in Southern Ukraine with volunteer forces. Since no highly trained RF are moving into the area, it is unlikely that Russia could mount an offensive there.
RF conducted a massive missile strike on Kherson city killing at least six civilians and injuring twelve others at a busy bus stop.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
In his speech to the nation on Tuesday, Putin made promises that are now falling on deaf ears as past promises were not upheld. Putin announced that RF will receive 14-day leaves twice a year and that families of fallen soldiers will receive financial assistance.
Russia has enlisted the Russian Orthodox Church into persuading Russian men to join the military. A group of medical students attended the Church of the Nativity in Volzhsky and were pressured by the priests to join the Russian military ranks.
A court in Belgorod sentenced two Russian civilians to 3.5-year prison terms for sabotaging railroad tracks used by the military. Another case has been opened up against a doctor who refused to comply with mobilization orders.
Belarus
Belarus deployed four columns of military equipment to the border with Lithuania.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed his nation but added nothing of substance and only reiterated his lies in order to convince the Russian people to accept a protracted war with Ukraine. He gave the same old justifications for Russia’s attack on Ukraine. He claimed that Russia must defend Russians all over the world, but especially the Donbas region of Ukraine. No mention was made that the majority of ethnic Russians that lived in the Donbas are either dead, have fled, or are suffering under the abuses of the Russian army in occupied territories. They never asked Russia to destroy their land. Putin claimed that Ukraine was a Nazi state, even though Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish. He finally hit the nail on the head when he said that Russia needed to invade Ukraine for its own domestic security – read “for Putin’s own security”. What Putin feared the most was the Ukrainian people throwing off its corrupt and totalitarian regime for democratic freedom. Putin was afraid that this might encourage the Russian people to do the same.
The only thing of substance said by Putin in his address was the decision to suspend participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and begin testing and developing nuclear weapons. But this is also just an information operation as it is unlikely Russia would escalate to a nuclear war as they would have the most to lose.
Several international journalists claimed they have obtained copies of a Russian strategy document on how Russia will absorb Belarus by 2030. The journalists said they cannot release their evidence as it would reveal their sources. This makes Ukraine even more important to become a NATO state to serve as a buffer between an imperialistic Russia and European allies.
Chinese Foreign Affairs Director Wang Yi met with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Moscow to develop a stronger strategic partnership just a week after China signed an alliance with Iran. Gog and Magog are forming a strong alliance.
Despite western sanctions on Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, he still managed to make a net profit of $90 million from his companies. This is due to his gold mines in Sudan and oil companies in Syria.
Ukraine is mobilizing a new brigade almost on a daily basis. Ukraine seems to be unstoppable in their growing military capabilities. But their number of troops are growing faster than the equipment necessary for them to fight effectively.
The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that nearly 20,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed so far in this renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine.
International Support
US President Joe Biden gave a speech in Warsaw to affirm US and NATO support for Ukraine. He vowed that “our support for Ukraine will not waver, NATO will not be divided, and we will not tire.” He also challenged Putin’s speech where he accused the West of plotting to attack Russia as ridiculous.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Kyiv to show her support for Ukraine and meet with President Zelensky.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.