UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
UAF have not only stopped RF in Eastern Ukraine, but they have also begun pushing back. It is too early to say that UAF have retaken the initiative though in Eastern Ukraine. RF still have the initiative in the conquest of Bakhmut with confirmed marginal advances in the east and capturing the village of Yahidne just a mile north of Bakhmut. All attempts to encircle Bakhmut further were repelled though. UAF surrounding the occupied city of Donetsk repelled all attacks to push them back, except for marginal losses towards Pobieda (22 miles SW of Donetsk). And RF are pulling back from the Dnipro River in Southern Ukraine after suffering huge losses from UAF artillery.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kupyansk – No change on the ground in the Russian campaign to capture Kupyansk.
Svatove – UAS reported that RF conducted an unsuccessful assault towards Stelmakhivka. Geolocated footage shows UAF shelling RF in occupied Dzherelne (13 miles W) indicating UAF having advanced towards Svatove again.
Kreminna – UAF repelled RF assaults towards Nevske (14 miles NW), Bilohorivka (8 miles S), and in the Serebrianka Forest (8 miles S). UAS reported that RF suffered huge losses in those attacks with 70 killed and about 70 wounded.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Siversk – RF continue their attempts to advance towards Siversk from the south, but no confirmed progress has been made or even claimed. RS reported that RF made assaults near Zaliznyanske (23 miles SW), Vasyukivka (13 miles SW), Fedorivka (10 miles S), and Rozdolivka (10 miles S).
Bakhmut – Geolocated image of Wagner Force troops posing near the welcome sign to Yahidne (1 mile N) suggests the settlement has been captured by RF. RF also made some marginal advances in the eastern outskirts of the city confirmed by geolocated footage. RS claim that RF also made marginal advances in the southern outskirts. A RS claimed that UAF blew up a dam north of Bakhmut to flood the northern outskirts of the city near the Stupky train station to slow a RF advance from the north, but there is no visual confirmation of this yet.
RF continue their attempt to encircle Bakhmut in the north, but no confirmed progress has been made. UAS reported that UAF repelled a RF assault near Orikhove-Vasylivka (7 miles NW). RS claim an assault was made by RF near Zaliznyanske and have entered Dubovo-Vasylivka (4 miles NW), with one RS even claiming that RF captured the settlement. That has not been confirmed. It has also not yet been confirmed whether RF captured Berkhivka (2.5 miles N) as claimed by RS on Thursday but denied by UGS.
RF continue their attempt to encircle Bakhmut in the south, but no confirmed progress has been made or even claimed. RS claim that RF conducted assaults near Chasiv Yar (7.5 miles W) and Dyliivka (9.5 miles SW). UAS reported that UAF repelled a RF assault near Ivanivske (4 miles W) and Pivnichne (13 miles SW).
Avdiivka – RF continued their attempts to encircle Avdiivka but made no confirmed progress. RS claim that RF broke through UAF defenses near Novobakhmutivka (8 miles NE) and advanced on Krasnohorivka (5 miles N). To the southwest of Avdiivka, UAF repelled all assaults on Vodiane, Pervomaiskyi, and Nevelske. RS claimed that RF made some marginal gains towards Opytne (2 miles SW) and surrounded a Ukrainian stronghold between Pervomaiskyi (7.5 miles SW) and Vodiane (5 miles SW).
Marinka – RF continue to fight UAF still in Marinka but with no confirmed or even claimed progress. Geolocated footage indicates that RF have made some marginal advances towards Pobieda (2.5 miles SW). UAS reported that RF made an unsuccessful assault near Novomykhailivka (8 miles S).
Vuhledar – RF continue their attempts to capture Vuhledar but are showing evidence of significant loss of manpower and equipment. RF are conducting their assaults without armored support and armored personnel carriers have been observed driving Russian infantry to the frontlines and then withdrawing. Two naval infantry brigades have seemed to merge together due to significant losses. Buses from Melitopol full of troops moving towards Vuhledar have also been reported again suggesting huge losses on the frontline. And a Russian special rapid response unit has been moved into the area to prevent RF from rioting and refusing to fight. RS claim that RF conducted an assault near Prechystivka (10 miles W).
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF attempted a reconnaissance mission near Shcherbaky on the Zaporizhia defense line, but all 120 soldiers were eliminated. RF have been seen moving the majority of their troops back from the Dnipro River defense line and reinforcing them with mobilized personnel. This suggests that UAF are doing much damage to RF along the Dnipro Riverbank forcing them to withdraw out of artillery range. A minimal contingent of RF remain to stop UAF from crossing the Dnipro River, but most are moving into occupied cities using Ukrainian civilians as human shields.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Russian milbloggers are criticizing the R-MoD for downscaling the reported casualties of RF in the war against Ukraine.
The R-MoD continues to absorb the rebel armies of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR) People’s Republics into their ranks. The R-MoD reported that DNR forces will be fully integrated by March 1 and that soldiers within the DNR who have served their terms will be released and replaced by conventional RF.
A video was published of Russia attempting to enlist volunteers from Russian soccer hooligan fan club Espanyola on Friday.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territories
Russia has been shamelessly exploiting Ukrainian children who survived the assault on Mariupol. Russian soldier Yuri Gagarin is touring Russian cities with three of the 300 Ukrainian children he claims to have personally saved in Mariupol. The children thank Gagarin at each stop claiming to be Russian and not Ukrainian.
Belarus
The Belarusian military released a video of Belarusian troops being trained in operating various Russian missile systems.
Other News
UK, French, and German officials are preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive if it became a member of NATO. NATO would provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection to militarily come to Ukraine’s defense nor a commitment to station NATO troops in Ukraine. I do not place this under “International Support” because I suspect that it comes with strings attached that are not beneficial to Ukraine and would force Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia and result in Russia maintaining control and even ownership of Ukrainian territory. Russia has made it clear that they would not settle for anything less than Ukraine giving up the five regions – Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson – and allow Russia to install a puppet regime in Ukraine like they have over Belarus.
US President Joe Biden rejected China’s 12-point peace plan concerning the conflict between Russia and Ukraine stating that it would only benefit Russia. Even Donetsk People’s Republic head Denis Pushilin rejected the plan stating that it would prevent Russia from achieving its maximalist goals in Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade, investment, and large-scale joint projects. But the real reason may be to discuss ways that China can get around sanctions to supply Russia with lethal aid such as military drones, weapons, and artillery ammunition.
Lukashenko also added to the controversy over Russian-occupied Transnistria, a region of Moldova. He stated that the West is trying to provoke Ukraine into invading Transnistria in order to bring Moldova fully within NATO and the EU. He said that Russia is not just at war with Ukraine, but with the West.
54 Russian citizens spread over 14 cities were arrested for anti-war demonstrations on the one-year anniversary of the war with Ukraine. Even though it was a fraction (3%) of the number of protestors on the eve of the war, it was still remarkable considering the punishment for even criticizing the war is now years of prison.
International Support
The United Nations Security Council held a moment of silence after UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres criticized Russia for devastating Ukraine. Russia was condemned by most of the countries sitting on the Security Council. US Secretary of State addressed the Security Council by insisting that if the UN allows Russia to hold any Ukrainian territory it would weaken the UN charter and send a message to other aggressor nations that they can invade other countries and get away with it.
The European Union followed the US in imposing more sanctions on Russia on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine. The details have not been released but it was stated that individual and entities will be added to the sanction list that spread pro-Russian propaganda and are delivering military drones to Russia suggesting that some Iranian and Chinese targets will be added to the sanction list.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.