UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF continue their attempt to encircle Bakhmut by taking Berkhivka and possibly Chasiv Yar.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
UAF again repelled all RF assaults of the second major offensive indicating that RF may have culminated in their offense already. UAF have already begun sending sabotage units forward trying to gain the initiative again in Eastern Ukraine.
UAF struck a Russian ammunition depot again in Kadiivka.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – The situation in Bakhmut worsens each day, but UGS continue to claim that UAF can make a controlled withdrawal, if necessary, but holding Bakhmut continues to inflict heavy casualties on RF. RF have captured Berkhivka (4 miles NW) and have secured the outskirts of Yahidne (1 mile NW). Wagner Forces are attempting to bypass Yahidne and move towards Khromove (3.5 miles W) to completely encircle Bakhmut. The Northwest Axis is closing in on Bakhmut. RF are also making assaults along the Southwest Axis and claim to have taken Chasiv Yar (10.5 miles W) and moving towards Bohdanivka (7 miles W) which would also encircle Bakhmut. RF fighting inside Bakhmut have also made slow progress possibly reaching the Bakhmutivka River in the east. But instead of withdrawing, UAF are moving more troops into Bakhmut to hold the city.
Avdiivka – UAF repelled all RF assaults in the region.
Marinka – UAF repelled all RF assaults in the city
Vuhledar – There were no confirmed RF assaults in the region. A New York Times investigation reported on the heavy losses RF have taken over the last three weeks in their assaults on Vuhledar. UAF lured their tanks into ambushes and destroyed 130 tanks in the largest tank battle of the conflict so far. Instead of licking their wounds, RF continued to send wave after wave of infantry to their death.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
As time passes, Russian defenses in Southern Ukraine continue to be built. RF are now building a second defense line in occupied Kherson to fall back on if they lost the first.
UAF continue to target RF concentrations in the rear areas. Russia claimed to have downed ten military drones Ukraine sent against Crimea. UAF did successfully strike an airbase near Melitopol.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
A bill has been introduced to the Russian legislature to increase the penalty for discrediting participants in the Russian war with Ukraine. This would also include those fighting in private armies such as the Wagner Group. Punishment would include a five million rubles fine ($66,450), five years of forced labor, or a 15-year prison sentence. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was thankful that private army participants were included but suggested that the bill be amended to allow criticism of high-ranking officers if the R-MoD as he bolsters his reputation and that of his private army by criticizing what he sees is the incompetence of R-MoD leaders.
Russian mobilized personnel released a video criticizing the officers of the Donetsk People’s Republic army of transferring them to the frontlines without preparation or proper information as to what unit to which they would be subordinated.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territories
Donetsk People’s Republic Head Denis Pushilin complained that occupation officials are not following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to increase the border checkpoint capacitites between the occupied territories and Russia.
Occupation officials have sped up the process of Ukrainian citizens to become Russian citizens to a ten-day process. Only those carrying Russian passports will qualify for social benefits including pensions and medical assistance.
Occupation forces are placing arrested Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories in POW camps to bolster the number of POWs they hold to exchange with Ukraine for Russian POWs. It is estimated that 40% of Ukrainian POWs are not soldiers, but arrested civilians.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed 16 documents that will allow China to send aid to Russia through Belarus thus evading international sanctions.
Other News
Russia continues to play games which risks a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) that is currently under their control. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team at the plant noted that there were 20 explosions near the ZNPP on Tuesday alone threatening the backup powerline to the reactors. Russia is refusing to allow the current IAEA inspectors to rotate out claiming there is a security issue. Russia is trying to wear down the IAEA officials into recognizing Russia’s legitimate control of the ZNPP.
Serbia is finding it difficult to straddle the line as Russian friends and applicants to join the European Union. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that Serbia must make some hard choices soon. Serbia has condemned the Wagner Group for recruiting Serbian fighters into their ranks and threatened to arrest any Serbians who join Wagner Group upon their return to Serbia.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.