UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The war was mostly at a standstill on Thursday with only marginal territorial gains made by Russia around Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kupyansk – No confirmed assaults were made in the region. RS claim that RF repelled a UAF attempt to regain positions lost in Hryankivka (10 miles NE).
Kreminna/Svatove – No confirmed ground advances were made by either side, but UAS claimed that all RF assaults were repelled, with RS claiming some marginal advances were made. RS did claim that RF stopped a UAF counterattack suggesting that UAF may be back on the offense. UAS are reporting sightings of Russia’s new tanks in the area suggesting that this is still Russia’s main priority of their second major offensive.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – RF seem to be stuck on their attempts to encircle Bakhmut making little gain over the last two days. RF would need to capture both Ivanivske (4 miles W) and Khromove (2 miles W) to successfully encircle Bakhmut, but UAF are repelling all assaults along the northwest and southwest axis of the encirclement plan. Apart from marginal gains south of Dubovo-Vasylivka confirmed by geolocated footage, RF have been halted on the Northwest Axis. And attacks along the Southwest Axis have lessened, suggesting that RF are allowing the T0504 Highway to remain open to encourage UAF to retreat from Bakhmut as RF bear down from the northeast and eastern outskirts of the city. Geolocated footage confirms RF have advanced in the eastern outskirts having crossed the Bakhmutivka River. RF have also made some confirmed advances towards Bila Hora (8 miles SW). UGS reported that Ukraine is preparing for a tactical retreat from Bakhmut if necessary but has no plans at this time to retreat.
Siversk – UAS reported that all RF assaults towards Siversk in the areas of Vesele, Spirne, and Rozdolivka were repelled.
Avdiivka – RF made confirmed marginal gains northeast of Vodiane (5 miles SW), but all other RF assaults in the area were repelled.
Marinka – No confirmed advances were made by either side in Marinka. RS claim that RF are attempting to advance but made no claim of advances. RS also claimed to made assaults against Pervomaiskyi.
Vuhledar – Geolocated footage has confirmed that RF made marginal advances south of Vuhledar. UAS reported that RF are conducting five assaults a day towards Vuhledar in small groups of ten or fewer soldiers, but for the most part RF are now on the defensive in the region
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF continue to conduct routine fire in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. A Russian missile struck a residential area in Zaporizhia city killing three civilians.
RS claim that RF shot down military drones targeting Saky in Crimea.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Wagner Group announced a campaign to begin recruiting efforts through Russian youth sports clubs.
Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov announced that Chechnya is assisting in the creation of a military academy in Pskov to mirror the one in Chechnya. This suggests the attempts of Kadyrov to gain influence outside of Chechnya.
Russian soldiers from Irkutsk Oblast released a video complaining of them being ordered to storm Avdiivka despite having been promised a transfer to defensive positions. Cell phones of several soldiers were seized to search for those sending critical messages back home to relatives. Russian authorities have threatened to cut off water and to bring criminal charges against these soldiers if they continue to complain.
Two Russian university students were arrested for distributing pro-Ukrainian literature and purportedly building an explosive device. Another Russian citizen was arrested for providing information to Ukrainian authorities of Russian installations near him. And another university student was arrested for throwing a Molotov cocktail at a military recruitment center in St. Petersburg.
Belarus
Two trains carrying Russian military equipment left Belarus heading towards Donetsk Oblast purportedly to aid in the attacks on Avdiivka. But it also provides evidence that an invasion from Belarus is not being planned despite the continuation of Belarusian military exercises continuing.
Other News
An attack was made in the Russian border villages of Lyubenchane and Sushany purportedly killing and taking hostage Russian civilians. Russia claims that dozens of UAF saboteurs crossed the border and fired on a school bus killing one man and taking another six hostages. Ukrainian officials deny any such incursion into territorial Russia. The Russian Volunteer Group, an arm of the UAF made up of Russian citizens who defected to Ukraine, published a video taking credit with geolocated footage confirming having been filmed in Sushany. One theory is that Russia staged a false flag operation to either prepare for an official declaration of war against Ukraine or as an information operation to bolster support for the war among Russian citizens. Ukraine had nothing to gain and thus no motive for the attack. There is no confirmation or evidence about who conducted this attack other than the released videos that the event did occur.
International Support
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Germany is negotiating with allies about providing security guarantees to Ukraine once the conflict with Russia is concluded. He did not release any details about what is proposed. He also took the opportunity to criticize China for not condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 summit in India to encourage Russia to reverse their decision on suspension of the START nuclear weapon treaty. He also encouraged Russia to come to the negotiating table to discuss a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Evidence has been revealed that the alliance between Russia and Serbia is cracking. A Russian media source reported on a secret Serbian delivery of multiple-launch rocket systems to Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.