UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Apart from Bakhmut which is still under control of UAF, the Russian second offensive is showing signs of culmination with very little to show for their catastrophic losses.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
The situation in Eastern Ukraine has almost come to a standstill with the only confirmed gains by RF on Saturday being north of Novovodyane (10 miles SW of Svatove). RS are trying to change the narrative away from a failed second major offensive, to describing it as a limited offensive. But the fact that three Russian divisions plus three other regiments are involved in the offense, as well as the most advanced Russian weapon systems, belies this claim. The fact is that Russia has failed in taking any significant territory in Eastern Ukraine and its only accomplishment was in stopping the Ukrainian liberation of Svatove and Kreminna.
Even the evacuation of vulnerable Ukrainian citizens from Kupyansk was not a sign of success as RF have failed to advance towards Kupyansk in the last few days. The evacuation was a humanitarian decision as RF are within artillery and mortar fire range.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – RF have achieved a positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain positions of UAF in Bakhmut. The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon defensive positions which is different than encirclement which is meant to trap and destroy the enemy. RF are still unlikely to encircle Bakhmut and very unlikely to capture Bakhmut with frontal assaults. Bakhmut has no tactical advantage beyond inflicting heavy casualties on RF trying to capture the city. So, if UAF begin to experience higher casualties, it will encourage them to initiate a controlled withdrawal of the settlement. At this point, UAF have retreated from some frontal defensive positions in the north and east but has stated they are not planning such a withdrawal from the city at this time.
It has been confirmed by geolocated footage that RF have made some marginal advances on Berkhivka (3 miles NW) but have not taken the settlement as previously claimed. UAF continue to repel RF on all fronts.
Siversk – UAF ambushed RF west of Zolotarivka (9 miles E) confirming marginal advances by RF.
Avdiivka – RF continue to conduct assaults around Avdiivka, but no confirmed advances were made. Geolocated footage did show RF suffering heavy losses near Avdiivka. Three tanks and five infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed, and six Russian soldiers were captured.
Marinka – RF continue their assaults to recapture Marinka. Geolocated footage of UAF blowing up a house occupied by RF confirms RF made some marginal advances west of Vodiane toward Pervomaiskyi.
Vuhledar – Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to occupied Donetsk to meet with Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov to assess the huge Russian catastrophic losses during the last three-week assault on Vuhledar. Discussions will surely involve whether to send more troops and equipment to continue the offensive which has come to a complete halt at the moment. Perhaps it will also result in the removal of Muradov from his command. Of most interest is in who did not attend this meeting. Army General Valery Gerasimov, as the Chief of the General Staff, should have led this meeting, but he was not even in attendance. Perhaps there will be a shakeup of the top military position as well.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
UAS continue to report that RF are preparing for an offense in Southern Ukraine, but the situation on the ground suggests that RF would not be able to carry on a successful offensive. It is more likely that RF are building up a stronger defense in anticipation of a Ukrainian offensive in the region.
RF continue routine fire in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF shelled Kherson city and Ochakiv.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
The Wagner Group, cut off from recruiting criminals in prison, have opened up three recruiting centers in Russian sports clubs.
RS have revealed plans by the R-MoD to change the conscription age from 18-27 to 21-30 in preparation for another mobilization effort.
Soldiers of the Russian 1252nd regiment posted a video on social media complaining about their treatment under Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) forces. The soldiers claim that the LNR disbanded their regiment and reassigned them to tasks that do not match their training and failed to equip them properly.
The wives of soldiers of the Russian 1439th regiment, composed of recruits from Irkutsk Oblast, posted a video stating that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces that their husbands serve under order them to storm Avdiivka, allow UAF to surround them, and then abandoned them. Soldiers of the 1439th regiment had recorded video complaints three times of their poor treatment by DNR forces in the past. On one of the videos the soldiers began making complaints until a voice off camera warned, “they’re coming”, and the video abruptly ended. Irkutsk officials have travelled to the region to investigate the claims.
Regional Russian governments are shouldering much of the financial burden of Russian mobilization. The Bashkortostan Republic, an autonomous region in Eastern Russia, have spent millions of dollars paying the salaries of their countrymen fighting in the war, and provided the pay to the families of fallen soldiers, that the R-MoD is supposed to pay.
A Moscow resident was arrested and charged with treason for financially assisting Ukrainian forces, the first such case of its kind. A Russian citizen in Vladivostok was sentenced to seven years imprisonment for setting fire to a military recruitment center last June. He claimed he was offered 100,000 rubles ($1326) to destroy the office. And the Russian supreme court in Crimea sentenced a Saint Petersburg resident to a six-year imprisonment for attempting to swim from Crimea to Odesa to join the UAF.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territory
Crimean occupation authorities created a volunteer police force to defend against sabotage by partisans. Kherson occupation authorities have also strengthened internal checkpoints to combat sabotage by partisans. It seems that the saboteurs that attacked Sushany, Kupyansk have spooked Russian authorities.
Zaporizhian occupation authorities held the first meeting of the Election Commission to prepare for local elections on September 10.
Belarus
Russian forces continue to rotate in and out of Belarus maintaining a troop presence of around 10,000 soldiers. This is evidence of Belarus allowing RF to use their training facilities to train RF.
Other News
The Chinese government is not happy with Russian leadership, according to The Economist magazine, over the publicization of arms sales to Russia. Chine wants to maintain a neutral public stance in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and considers the leak of their arms talks with Russia to have come from Russian officials.
Russia seems to be in panic over the recent incursion of saboteurs in Sushany, Bryansk earlier in the week. The R-MoD claimed that they are focused on protecting critical state and military facilities and are unable to protect business and civilian targets. State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapalov stated that Russian private companies should purchase their own air defense systems to defend against Ukrainian drones. In other words, the Russian military has made it clear that Russian civilians are on their own and must defend themselves.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprise trip to Chechnya to meet with Akhmat Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Youth Movement. This would have been highly unlikely even in time of peace. There is something more behind this than we are being told. This confirms the rumors that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, the father of Akhmat, is dying of kidney complications and is turning over leadership of Chechnya to his son.
International Support
US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met at the White House in a show of unity with Ukraine. The US announced another $400 million in military aid on Friday which will consist mainly of ammunition.
US Attorney General Merrick Garland made a surprise visit to Lviv to attend the United For Justice Conference and pledged the US will hold Russia accountable for war crimes. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was also in attendance to call for Russian war crime investigations.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola was also in Lviv and called to begin Ukraine’s EU membership negotiations to begin this year.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.