UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF made marginal gains only in Bakhmut on Thursday and Friday, but came to a complete standstill on all fronts by Saturday with UAF retaking the initiative in Eastern Ukraine and making significant gains towards Svatove retaking Kuzemivka and Chernonopopivka.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Ukraine may have gained the initiative in Eastern Ukraine reportedly liberating Kuzemivka (8.5 miles NW of Svatove) and moving within 7 miles of Svatove on Saturday. Chervonopopivka (4 miles NW of Kreminna), which has been constantly going back and forth between RF and UAF, is now under UAF control again. RF made no advances since Thursday in Eastern Ukraine despite conducting several assaults all along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – RF have not attempted to cross the Bakhmutivka River in the eastern half of the city since reaching it on Wednesday. They do not have the energy or manpower to attempt to make an assault over the river. But RF have made some marginal advances from the south and north in Bakhmut on Thursday and Friday suggesting that RF have given up trying to encircle Bakhmut but are planning to continue the very costly frontal attacks against heavily entrenched UAF in the city. In the northwest, RF have reached the AZOM metal processing plant and may have even begun moving into the outer buildings. Just as in Mariupol, it will prove very costly for RF to attempt to flush UAF out of the underground tunnels beneath the AZOM plant. On Saturday, RF had come to a complete standstill on all sides in their attack on Bakhmut.
RF are concentrating their attacks northwest of Bakhmut capturing Dubovo-Vasylivka (4 miles NW) on Thursday. RS claimed that RF also captured Orikhove-Vasylivka (7 miles NW) but there is no confirmation of that.
UAF have had greater success on the southwest axis around Bakhmut pushing RF back from Khromove and establishing pontoon bridges to reestablish supply lines into Bakhmut.
Avdiivka & Marinka – RF continued their unsuccessful assaults towards Avdiivka and within Marinka on Thursday and Friday, but all attacks came to a halt on Saturday.
Vuhledar – The Russian 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade has reached Vuhledar to replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade that had been decimated over the last few weeks. But with lack of artillery, they will also be unlikely to take the city and will suffer the same plight. Russian Colonel General Rustam Muradov has been ordered to take Vuhledar at all costs and is likely to attempt another major assault.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF continue building defenses to defend the cities of Tokmak and Melitopol in the event UAF attempt a major offensive in Southern Ukraine. Fighting continues over control of the islands in the Dnipro River with neither side being able to establish control.
UAF conducted a HIMARS strike against a bus station in Volnovakha on Thursday which is being used to transport RF to Southern Ukraine. Ten buses were destroyed in the attack. On Friday, UAF destroyed three Russian ammunition warehouses, air defenses, and shelled four concentrations of RF in Southern Ukraine on Friday. On Saturday, UAF fired long-range rockets against RF concentrations in Mariupol and shelled RF on the Kinburn Spit across the waters from Ochakiv.
RF intentionally shelled occupied Oleshky to accuse UAF of shelling the settlement and encouraging the Ukrainian residents to evacuate.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
Russia has likely run out of funds to recruit new forces and instead is turning to large Russian companies to establish their own volunteer-based military formations. Several large state-owned companies have begun forming their own volunteer forces.
Russian occupation authorities have also ordered all colleges and universities in the occupied regions submit a list of all boys born before April 2006 in preparation for a spring mobilization wave in the occupied regions.
The 1004th Russian Regiment posted a video complaining about Donetsk People’s Republics (DNR) commanders they are serving under. They complain that the DNR divided them and sent them on frontal attacks without breaks. They demanded that they be reassigned to territorial defense forces under the R-MoD threatening to break out in fights and even mass suicide.
500 Ukrainian residents in the Luhansk occupied region sent a letter to President Putin complaining that they are not being allowed to demobilize after the age of 50 like other soldiers within the Russian army.
An 18-year-old student was found guilty of treason and sentenced to two months imprisonment for posting a call to end the war on his social media page. The vice chairman of “The Civil Alliance of Russia” was arrested for attempting to sabotage a railway in Karelia. A man in Dagestan was sentenced to 1.5 years in prison for protesting against the war.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin has increased his efforts to recruit more volunteers for his forces increasing his recruitment centers to 42 around Russia in sports clubs.
Eight Russian soldiers from Kaliningrad Oblast have been charged with desertion and are facing 15-year prison terms.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian occupation authorities are now beginning to register candidates for public office in the occupied regions for the September 10 election.
Russian occupation authorities are also cracking down on partisan attacks by strengthening controls at all checkpoints and opening up a police laboratory for genetic research to examine genetic evidence left behind at partisan attacks.
Of the 38 children who still lived in Bakhmut as of Tuesday, only 19 remain. It is assumed the other 19 have been forcefully evacuated to Russia. RF are using military drones to target busses evacuating Ukrainian children from cities under Russian attack.
Belarus
Russian and Belarusian troops are again conducting joint military exercises in Belarus.
Other News
Russia conducted their largest missile attack on Ukraine in 2023 on Thursday firing at least 81 missiles and launching 8 military drones. I was on my way to Kyiv to visit the embassy and my train was stopped on its approach to Kyiv as missiles fell on the capital. Then all day while I waited for my return train to depart, the air raids were going off everywhere. All the military drones were shot down. At least 34 of the missiles were reportedly shot down, but the majority got through and hit their targets, mostly energy infrastructure. But they failed in their objective in shutting down the Ukraine energy grid only knocking out some isolated areas for a short period of time. By evening all power was restored throughout Ukraine. At least six people were killed in the attacks. Five civilians were killed in Zolochiv when a missile struck a residential building.
Russia is conducting an information operation in Moldova with the goal of overthrowing the Moldovan government and replacing it with a pro-Russian regime. Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to kill the president of the Russian occupied region of Transnistria
RF strikes around the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused the plant to be completely disconnected from external power for ten hours on Thursday forcing it to run on emergency backup diesel generators.
The pro-Russian government of Georgia passed a law to mirror one in Russia that forces civilians to register as “foreign agents” if they earn more than 20% of their income outside Georgia. Georgia erupted into their own Maidan Revolution as a result with hundreds of Georgians taking to the streets and forcing the government to rescind the law. But the crowds have not dispersed calling on the Georgian government to resume its move towards Europe. The protests have now entered their fifth day.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.