UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The internet is abuzz over the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive most likely occurring in Southern Ukraine because a destroyed Crimea is of more strategic value than a destroyed Donbas. The big debate is whether the target will be Melitopol-Berdyansk or Volnovakha-Mariupol. Ukraine may have enough forces for two assaults and may also start another drive to take northern Luhansk by driving towards Svatove and Kreminna again or attempt to encircle RF assaulting Bakhmut.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
After a few days of being stalled, RF made some marginal gains in Eastern Ukraine over the last three days. RF have been concentrating their attacks near Kreminna and Bilohorivka, but UAF held them in both of those areas. It has been noted that when the Russian Second Offensive started, there were a number of the new Russian T-90 tanks deployed in Eastern Ukraine. But after two weeks, they were mostly all destroyed, and Russia is back to using their older T-72s. Russia has been losing up to a company (30 to 100 personnel) a day during their offensive, but they have not reduced the number of their daily attacks.
RF did make some marginal gains verified by geolocated footage towards Kupyansk and Siversk and have pushed UAF farther back from Svatove. The northern push towards Kupyansk saw RF attacking south of Hryankivka (10.5 miles NE) which indicates they have probably captured all, or at least part, of Hryankivka. In the center, geolocated footage shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP-2 indicating that RF have made some advances from Svatove towards Novoselivske (8.5 miles NW). And in the south, RF have made slight advances northeast of Verkhnokamyanske (4.5 miles E of Siversk).
RF are continuing their building of defenses on the Ukrainian/Russian border even though Ukraine has no intention of entering Russian territory. But it keeps UAF pinned to defend the border and not move towards the frontline fighting regions.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – UAF continue their defense of Bakhmut with RF having made some advances over the last three days, but most of the fighting within the city has been positional. RF are averaging around 40 coordinated assaults each day. RF have not attempted to cross the Bakhmutivka River to the east but continue to slowly advance towards the center of the city from the north and south. The only confirmed advance was from the south as geolocated footage shows RF moving up Sadova Street. RS also claim that RF have begun assaults on underground sections of the AZOM manufacturing plant complex in the northwest of the city, even claiming to have captured the Vostokmash plant in the northern part of the AZOM complex.
UAF are reportedly building up to the west of Bakhmut preparing for a counteroffensive to encircle RF instead. Because of this, RF continue to move farther northwest and southwest to prevent their troops from becoming trapped. RF have been confirmed by geolocated footage advancing northwest along the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway towards Minkivka (9.5 miles NW of Bakhmut). And to the southwest, RF have been confirmed by geolocated footage moving along the T0504 highway conducting assaults against Stupochky (6 miles SW), Ivanivske (5 miles SW), and Khromove (3 miles W).
To the northwest of Bakhmut, RF have made confirmed advances from Dubovo-Vasylivka which they captured last week, towards Bohdanivka in an attempt to encircle Bakhmut. The plight of Orikhove-Vasylivka (9 miles NW) is not yet known. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denies that the settlement has been taken by RF, but other milbloggers claim it has, or at least partially captured.
Avdiivka – RF continue their attempt to encircle Avdiivka and have had some marginal success to the northeast with geolocated footage indicating RF have advanced toward Krasnohorivka (6.5 miles N). RS claim that RF have already entered Krasnohorivka and have begun clearing Kamianka (5 miles NE), but there is no confirmed evidence of this yet.
Marinka – Fighting continues in Marinka but no confirmed progress had been made by either side.
Vuhledar – RF unsuccessfully attempted assaults on Vuhledar on Sunday and Tuesday.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF continue to build defenses in Southern Ukraine in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Geolocated footage shows RF building up checkpoints and defensive structures. UAF are attempting to push RF 12.5 miles away from the Dnipro River by massive artillery attacks to allow them to make a river crossing not under artillery fire. UAF are also shelling the Kinburn Spit on a daily basis to prepare for a possible landing there as well. RF continue their daily rocket attacks in Zaporizhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
A bill has been submitted to the Russian Duma increasing the conscription age range from 18-27 to 21-30. This indicates that President Putin is not planning another mobilization campaign as it would be very unpopular and threaten his rule over Russia. Instead, by increasing the age, those currently fighting would have another three-year extension.
Ukrainian intelligence has captured a tactical Russian military manual which shows an emphasis on smaller formations to conduct small-scale assaults, rather than larger brigades. This indicates that Russia is not planning on moving beyond Bakhmut for now and is employing these smaller units for urban warfare to capture Bakhmut.
More and more videos are being posted on social media of conventional Russian troops complaining about how they are being treated by the rebel leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republic forces. The fact that this is being allowed without discipline from the Russian government suggests that Russia is setting the groundwork to dismantle these rebel armies and merge them into the conventional forces.
A RS reports about a high desertion rate among Russian SPETSNAZ forces, the elite fighting forces of the Russian military.
UK intelligence reports that there are significant regional disparities in the Russian casualty rate in Ukraine. 75% of the casualties involve Kazakh and Tartar minorities. And the number of casualties of soldiers from eastern regions of Ukraine are forty times higher than those from Moscow.
Because Russia is not gathering their dead from the battleground but leaving them to rot, there is a growing list of Russian soldiers missing in action. A new law has been submitted to the Russian Duma allowing a soldier to be declared dead without a recovered body by a simple note from his commanding officer stating he was killed. The bill also reduces that amount of time missing before being declared dead from two years to six months.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that 2161 Ukrainian orphans from the occupied territories have been illegally deported to Russia for adoptions. But she estimates that the total number may be as high as 150,000 as it is nearly impossible to confirm a forced deportation.
Zaporizhia occupation authorities have cancelled compulsory instruction in the Ukrainian language starting next school year. Parents will be able to choose whether they want their child to be educated using the Ukrainian or Russian language. But everyone knows that if they choose the Ukrainian language, they will be considered suspect by the occupying regime.
Ukrainian partisans destroyed a section of railroad track in Kherson Oblast on Sunday to slow down Russian logistic supply chains. Vitaly Gur, a Russian occupation deputy, was injured by partisans in a car attack on Tuesday. Unable to stop such partisan attacks, occupation authorities are pleading with Moscow to provide more police.
Zaporizhian occupation authorities announced they were creating a free economic zone to encourage businesses to move into the region.
Belarus
Belarus continues conducting military combat readiness exercises.
Other News
The Ukrainian Ministry of Culture decided not to renew its lease agreement with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate, a division of the Russian Orthodox Church, over the lower half of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery and instead will lease it to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which already controls the upper Lavra. This is being reported falsely American news sites as the Ukrainian government seizing and shutting down monasteries. This is far from the truth. The Lavra was actually stolen by the Russian Orthodox Church during the Soviet occupation, and an agreement was made to lease them the lower Lavra after independence. But since the Russian Orthodox Church is disseminating anti-Ukrainian propaganda, the Ukrainian government reserved their right not to renew the lease once it expires on March 29.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to expand economic relations between the two countries. They signed eight cooperation agreements which will enable them to continue supporting Russia by bypassing sanctions.
Two Russian aircraft forced down a US drone flying over international waters in the Black Sea. One of the Russian aircraft crashed into the drone resulting in the loss of the drone.
Russia agreed to extend the grain deal allowing Ukraine to ship grain to the world for another 60 days. But the original agreement was for future extensions to be for 120 days, but at least we got 60.
The 55 Ukrainian soldiers trained by NATO in operating advanced Leopard Tanks have completed their training and are returning to Ukraine to unite with the tanks already sent to Ukraine and kept it an unknown location for obvious reasons. Soon they will be on the front lines.
International Support
Poland and Slovakia have both signaled they are willing to supply Ukraine with MiG-29 fighters they have in their arsenal. Poland went as far as to say they could be delivered within a month.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.