UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Fighting around Bakhmut has markedly decreased suggesting RF are nearing culmination, but they are still making moderate advances. The internet is abuzz with UAF conducting minor assaults and reconnaissance along the Zaporizhian defense line suggesting they are preparing for the expected counterattack in Southern Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
The cloud of war makes it difficult to know what is happening in the battle for Eastern Ukraine beyond that the fighting continues all along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Both sides make claims of repelling the other’s attacks. Only one piece of evidence has emerged over the last two days which is a geolocated video of UAF striking and destroying a Russian vehicle west of Chervonopopivka which indicates a limited Russia advance northwest of Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – The number of attacks by Wagner Forces in Bakhmut have markedly decreased suggesting that the toll on their forces in attempting to take Bakhmut have been very costly. Instead, Wagner Forces continue to take small settlements northwest of Bakhmut which will not give them any advantage in the Battle for Bakhmut. Wagner Force financier Valery Prigozhin claims that his forces captured Zalizianske (5.5 miles NW) on Wednesday, which was confirmed the following day by geolocated footage. A number of Russian conventional forces are waiting in the bay and have not engaged in Bakhmut yet. It seems that the R-MoD is waiting to allow the Wagner Forces to be depleted before they engage in Bakhmut. But for now, it seems that Battle for Bakhmut is nearing culmination unless these conventional forces join in the fray.
RS claim that Wagner Forces have nearly encircled Bakhmut by advancing towards Khromove from the northwest and Ivanivske from the southwest. RS claim that they completely cover the only UAF escape route along the Bakhmut-Khromove road with ATGM fire. But this has not been confirmed. It was confirmed on Thursday that RF did advance towards Bohdanivka behind Khromove, and near Kurdyumivka (10.5 miles S).
Inside the city Wagner Forces are slowly advancing from the northwest. We know from geolocated footage that they have advanced just east of the AZOM factory complex and have reached the northern banks of the Pivnichne Reservoir. RS claim that Wagner Forces continue to fight in the tunnels of the AZOM complex.
Avdiivka – RF continued their attacks on Avdiivka and around the city in attempts to encircle it. RS claimed to have completely captured Krasnohorivka (6.5 miles N) which if true will make the defense of Avdiivka quite difficult. But this has not yet been confirmed.
Marinka – Based on geolocated footage, RF have advanced towards Lesi Ukrainka Street making it the first confirmed progress in over a month of fighting. But Russian milbloggers are abuzz with a UAF counterattack being readied to throw RF out of Marinka again.
Vuhledar – The extent of the massive defeat of RF last month in their assault towards Vuhledar has come to light with the finding of a diary left behind by a Russian soldier. The diary laments that only 57 of the 434 Russian soldiers in his attachment are still alive. This suggests that 83% of the RF assault on Vuhledar were killed or captured.
And yet RF continue to conduct assaults towards Vuhledar. One video shows RF detonating a mine near Vuhledar demonstrating that they are rushing operations and failing to deploy mine-clearing practices.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
Satellite images show that RF continue to build defensive fortifications in Southern Ukraine in anticipation of a counterattack.
Although Ukraine remains silent about any activity in Southern Ukraine, RS are abuzz of activity along the Zaporizhian line from Vasylivka to Polohy. RS claim that UAF attempted an amphibious assault on RF along the eastern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir near Vasylivka. RS also claim that UAF conducted a reconnaissance-in-force operation near Polohy but were stopped with five tanks and two armored vehicles being destroyed. The only evidence of activity along this line was geolocated footage of UAF assaulting RF near Novodanylivka (4 miles S of the defense line).
Russia has greatly increased it naval presence in the Black Sea with another 8 vessels arriving. This may be in response to a U.S. threat about sending vessels into the Black Sea to retrieve the drone Russia forced down on Tuesday. Russia may be moving quickly to retrieve it first to gain vital information on its construction and abilities.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
The Russian State Duma adopted the law on punishment for those who discredit participants of the war against Ukraine. Those found guilty will receive a fine of $65,530 (which is roughly the average 11-year salary in Russia), up to five years of forced labor, or up to seven years of prison. They also adopted a law giving military commanders the right to punish subordinates without a trial. This law will be abused to stop Russian troops from complaining publicly about their poor treatment.
Russia continues to expend funds to build air defense systems in residential areas within Russia that will never be attacked by Ukraine. The reason for this is to instill fear in the Russian people by pretending there is a real threat of a Ukrainian invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a public meeting on Wednesday with the Russian Prosecutor’s Office to bolster his image of being an effective wartime leader. He instructed them on how they can improve upon the timely payment and social support to Russian military personnel and their families, and measures to support and protect orphaned children.
An official Russian government website may have accidentally spilled the beans by reporting that military recruitment centers throughout Russia have received quotas to recruit another 400,000 contract servicemen by April 1. The Russian government has publicly denied this report. Military recruitment centers have begun advertising for contract service though.
The UGS reported that Russian military equipment they have destroyed is starting to have FSB markings on them. The FSB is the modern version of the KGB. These markings mean that an old Soviet tradition of having the KGB inspect all weapons produced to insure they were built properly has been reinstated by the FSB which suggests the FSB does not trust the R-MoD.
Also discovered in this destroyed military equipment are parts manufactured in Africa and the Middle East suggesting that countries are violating sanctions and providing Russia with military parts.
A high school student in Kazan has been accused of arson against a military recruitment center in Tatarstan. Another Russian citizen was fined nearly $2000 (four-month average salary) for wearing noodles in his ear while listening to a speech by Putin. This is a cultural symbol of being lied to and was interpreted as a demonstration against Putin. A Russian soldier was sentenced to 5.5 years of prison for confessing to murdering a Ukrainian civilian during his unit’s attack on Avdiivka. The confession was declared “false” and was considered an attempt to discredit the Russian military.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Ukrainian partisans killed a Russian collaborator with an improvised explosive device on Tuesday. Ivan Tkach was one of the first Ukrainian citizens in Melitopol to assist Russian forces with transportation.
Occupation authorities continue tricking Ukrainian parents of allowing their children to go to Russia for rest and relaxation and then never seeing them again. Occupation authorities are also threatening to send children to Russia if their parents continue to refuse to obtain Russian passports.
Kherson occupation authorities have stopped allowing humanitarian aid to be delivered in their region and have begun confiscating vehicles carrying such aid.
Belarus
RF continue to be trained in Belarus. Belarus is also calling up reservists and conducting military exercises.
Other News
International journalists have obtained a Russian long-term strategy document for destabilizing Moldova and reintegrating it back into Russia. Other journalists have also confirmed that Chinese companies are selling rifles, drone parts, and military equipment to Russia in violation of international sanctions.
French journalists witnessed RF firing illegal white phosphorous munitions against residential areas in Bakhmut which is a violation of the Geneva Convention.
International Support
Poland announced on Thursday that they will give Ukraine four MiG-29 fighter jets to be delivered in the next 4-6 weeks. It was hinted that more are being serviced and may be given to Ukraine as well.
Denmark approved another $1 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.