UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Fighting continued but neither side made any significant advances. Russia conducted an evening drone attack on Ukraine overnight on Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues all along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but no confirmed advances were made by either side. RS claim that UAF were pushed across the Oskil River near Hryankivka, but this has not been confirmed.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Wagner Forces have most likely culminated in their attacks on Bakhmut, and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely trying to cover up his failure by claiming that the capture of Bakhmut should be abandoned and instead RF should begin preparing for the UAF spring offensive. Wagner Forces have put more of their effort in capturing easy targets to the northwest of Bakhmut claiming they are preparing to stop UAF from flanking RF in a planned offensive to throw RF back from Bakhmut.
Bakhmut – RS claim that RF have taken another 20% of Bakhmut over the last two days, but there is no confirmation that this is true. The only confirmed gain was marginal in northern Bakhmut. RS claim to have nearly cleared the AZOM complex of UAF, but that is highly unlikely. RS also claim to have reached the T0504 Highway in the south. RS claim that RF even crossed the Bakhmutivka River and have moved into the outside market. But there is no evidence that any of this is true.
Avdiivka – There is still no confirmation that RF have captured Krasnohorivka to the north of Avdiivka as RS have claimed over the last few days.
Marinka – No confirmed change on the ground.
Vuhledar – RS claim that they stopped a UAF counteroffensive, but there is no confirmation that such an assault was made.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RS agree that UAF have started offensive operations along the Zaporizhia line, but they are split over whether the assaults were successful or not. Some RS claim UAF were successful because Russian mines failed to halt Ukrainian vehicles. Ukraine remains silent neither confirming or denying.
Although RF continue to fire rockets in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts, the number of artillery attacks over the Dnipro River have measurably decreased suggesting RF are running out of ammunition.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two bills into law significantly increasing the fine and jail time for discrediting RF in Ukraine and assisting Ukraine. And on Friday the law was applied as over 40 people were detained in a bar under suspicion of financing UAF.
The Russian State Duma passed the bill raising the conscription age from 18-27 to 21-30 which is meant to force current soldiers to remain in the war, rather than recruit new soldiers. But it will have no impact in the near future as it does not go into effect until January 2024.
The vice-rector for student affairs at the People’s Friendship University of Russia was fired for refusing to exclude Ukrainian students. A 16-year-old Russian student was arrested for a failed arson attack on a recruitment center in Kirovsk.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Three Ukrainian partisans were captured along with their weapon cache in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast on Friday.
Another 35 Ukrainian children were sent to Russia for camp on Friday. These camps are a way to forcibly send Ukrainian children to Russia.
President Putin visited Crimea on Saturday to celebrate the 9th anniversary of Russian occupation of Crimea.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed on Friday that Belarus is providing military electronic components to Russia.
Multiple Belarusian artillery units are participating in unusually large joint exercise in Mogilev.
Putin and Lukashenko held a telephone conversation on Friday to discuss bilateral trade and economic cooperation. But it also probably involved discussions on using Belarus to allow China to bypass international sanctions on Russia.
RF being trained in Belarus has dropped sharply by 50%. Currently there are only 1000 RF being trained in Belarus.
Other News
The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on Friday for alleged war crimes involving the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
RF targeted Ukraine with 16 drones overnight on Friday/Saturday. It is difficult to shoot down drones at night due to lack of visibility, but UAF were still able to shoot down eleven of them. Some of the drones targeted fuel facilities throughout Ukraine and the Kyiv Thermal Power Plant 5.
Russia acquiesced and extended the Ukraine grain export deal by another 120 days. They had announced earlier they would only extend by 60 days.
International Support
Slovakia announced they will give their 13 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, 10 of which are still operational. This is in addition to the four that Poland already promised to give Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.