UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
With very marginal advances by RF, it is with confidence we can report that the Russian second mobilization is nearing culmination with nothing significant to show for it. We are now waiting for Ukraine to retake the initiative and launch their spring counteroffensive.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF continue limited assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with no confirmed advances on either side. RF made marginal advances towards Spirne.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – UAF conducted a counterattack near Ivanivske (5 miles W) and pushed RF farther back securing access again to Highway T0504, a major supply route of UAF defending Bakhmut. RF conducted only 25 attacks in the city itself and made marginal advances suggesting that the Russian offensive is nearing culmination. RF continue to make marginal advances in the northwest toward Bohdanivka (4 miles NW).
RF crossed the Bakhmutivka River and are within a half mile from the city government center. RF also continue to move up from the south towards the city center.
UAF probed for weaknesses in the Russian defense of Mayorsk (15 miles S) but lost two M113s and retreated back to their position.
Avdiivka – RF are desperately attacking around Avdiivka at heavy costs. The main reason for these attacks is to pin down UAF to defend the city and keep them away from reinforcing Vuhledar. RF have lost a complete company in these assaults on heavily defended Avdiivka. RF made marginal advances towards Berdychi (6 miles NW). RF have advanced south of Krasnohorivka suggesting that the city was captured by RF as well as Vesele.
Vuhledar – The Russian 98th Guards Airborne Division are reinforcing the heavily devastated 155th Naval Infantry Brigade that had nearly been destroyed in their unsuccessful and tragic assault on Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
UAF probed the defenses of RF south of Danylivka but were forced to retreat after losing three vehicles. RF continue to build their defenses in preparation for the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
A Russian occupation police commander was killed in a car bomb in occupied Kherson Oblast. It is not known whether it was conducted by Ukrainian partisans or the result of Russian infighting.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited occupied Mariupol, his first visit to Ukraine outside of Crimea since the renewed invasion started last year. The visit was likely done to portray Putin as an invincible wartime leader and to raise the morale of RF fearing a spring Ukrainian counteroffensive in Southern Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.