UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
After days of being stalled, RF made some marginal advances in Eastern Ukraine including reaching the outskirts of Makiyivka. RF continue to close in on the center of Bakhmut and claim to now control 70% of the city. And Avdiivka is now also under threat of being encircled as RF advance from the north and south.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Ukraine remains quiet about what is happening on this front.
Kupyansk – RS claim that they have captured Hryankivka (8.5 miles NE) and pushed UAF to the west side of the Oskil River. This has not been confirmed though.
Svatove – Geolocated footage confirms that RF made marginal gains north of Novoselivske (9 miles NW) close to the N-26 Highway.
Kreminna – Geolocated footage confirms that RF have advanced to the outskirts of Makiyivka (13.5 miles NW) and made gains southwest of Ploshchanka (10.5 miles NW). RS claim that RF also made some advances west of Chervonopopivka (4 miles N), but that has not been confirmed.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – RF made advances on all sides in Bakhmut city. Geolocated footage confirms that in the south, RF have advanced near the Mariupolske Cemetery and have almost reached Korsunskoho Street. And to the north it is confirmed they have made some progress near the AZOM factory complex. In addition, RS claim that RF have reached the Avangard Stadium in the south which is only 0.5 mile from the city hall. Wagner Forces claim they now control 70% of Bakhmut.
It has been confirmed by geolocated footage that RF have advanced towards Bohdanivka and Khromove as they attempt to encircle Bakhmut. But UAF are massing in large numbers near Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka in preparation for a major counterattack.
Avdiivka – The UGS added Berdychi (6 miles NW) to the list of assaults that were repelled. If RF attacked Berdychi, that would confirm they captured Krasnohorivka and likely Stepove (just west of Krasnohorivka). RF have increased the intensity of their attacks north of Avdiivka as they attempt to encircle the heavily defended city. But RF have lost the equivalence of three companies of infantry in the last week alone. RF will not be able to maintain this intensity at that level of losses. The capture of Krasnohorivka is also confirmed by geolocated footage of RF advancing towards Kamianka (2.5 miles NE) between Krasnohorivka and Avdiivka. RS have even claimed that RF have captured Kamianka, but that is not confirmed.
Geolocated footage also confirms that RF have made some advances south of Avdiivka towards Vodiane (4 miles SW). RS claim that RF have even reached the southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka, but another RS dispute this.
Vuhledar – RF did not conduct any confirmed attacks towards Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
UAF conducted a drone attack near Dzhankoi, Crimea destroying a shipment of Kalibr cruise missiles that were being transported by train. Partisans also blew up a gas pipeline near Simferopol, Crimea.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
Russia continues to struggle to build or obtain components needed for weapon development. Laos has reportedly been providing imports as well as Iran with daily supply ships arriving in Moscow.
Russian authorities shut down a website which was aiding Russian citizens in avoiding conscription. Two citizens of Saratov were arrested for setting fire to a relay box at a train station.
RF from St. Petersburg released a video complaining that they suffered 70 percent casualty rate after their commander ordered them to storm Avdiivka and claimed they have been ordered to assault Avdiivka again. A Siberian newspaper cited a friend of a soldier who claimed he is one of only two survivors of their battalion that had numbered 300 before they were ordered to attack Avdiivka.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Ukrainian partisans assassinated the Russian-appointed head of the Kherson Oblast pre-detention center in a car bomb attack.
Another ten children from Luhansk Oblast arrived in Moscow for “rest”.
Belarus
Belarusian troops continue to conduct exercises in Belarus. Russian soldiers also continue to be trained in Belarus.
Other News
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Putin published articles calling on nations to resist the “imperialistic” western countries who are assisting Ukraine. Putin was disappointed that in Xi Jinping’s writings, he did not call for a resistance to western nations.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian government is “calm” about the recent indictment of President Putin from the International Criminal Court (ICC). He did make a veiled threat noting that the ICC headquarters is within range of Russian missiles.
The number and intensity of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine has decreased noticeably over the last few days suggesting Russia is running low on missiles.
Russia called on the UN to bring a stop to Israel’s missile strikes in Syria. Russia did this after Israel approved the sale of anti-drone jamming systems to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Orthodox branch of the Russian Orthodox Church has been ordered to vacate the lower half of the Pechersk Lavra Monastery, the oldest monastery in Ukraine. The lease has run out and Ukraine decided not to renew it and instead lease it to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which recently has been recognized as independent by other Orthodox dioceses.
It is being reported that President Putin did not visit Mariupol on Sunday as reported, but it was actually a look-alike Putin that made the quick visit. Take a look at the most recent pictures of Putin and notice that the Putin who visited Sevastopol and Mariupol over the weekend has a double chin that was not there a month earlier.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.