UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF were at a near standstill throughout all of Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with neither side making significant ground advances. Geolocated footage did confirm RF did gain some ground toward Terny (9.5 miles NW of Kreminna).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – Russian assaults are down 45% from where they were a week ago suggesting that the Battle for Bakhmut may be nearing culmination. RF were confirmed making marginal advances from the south, but no other progress was made in capturing the city. UAF stage their own counterattacks in the southwest pushing RF back from Ivanivske opening up the T0504 Highway for supplies and reinforcements. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the troops in Bakhmut on Wednesday.
Avdiivka – As attacks are diminishing in Bakhmut, they are increasing in Avdiivka as RF are now attempting to encircle this city just on the outskirts of occupied Donetsk city. RF did not capture Stepove to the north as assumed but have reached the outskirts. They skirted by Stepove for their assaults on Berdychi. Geolocated footage confirms that RF have made some marginal advances to the southeast of Avdiivka and have moved a little north of Vodiane to the southwest.
Vuhledar – The RF that were deploying to Vuhledar have instead joined the fight against Avdiivka indicating that Avdiivka is the priority now. No confirmed assaults were made by RF over the last two days.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF struck the Shkilnyy Airfield in Odesa on Tuesday night in retaliation for the attack on occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea, that destroyed Russian Kalibr missiles. Ukraine had launched their attack on Dzhankoi from the Odesa airfield. RF also destroyed three drones that had been launched by Ukraine against occupied Sevastopol, Crimea.
UAF continue to force RF back from the east bank of the Dnipro River to protect the population on the west bank from artillery fire. UAF also destroyed a Russian weapons depot on the Kinburn Spit to stop RF from shelling Ochakiv.
RF conducted routine shelling in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Russian Military and Mobilization
The Wagner Group is about to lost most of its convict force over the next few weeks as they complete their six-month contracts. They have already been pardoned and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has promised he would honor the end of their contracts.
Russia is covertly conscripting around 20,000 servicemembers a month but lacks the trainers for this number of troops. At this rate it will take nearly two years for Russia to recruit the 400,000 new troops they say they need to defeat Ukraine. It is reported that universities are withholding diplomas unless students volunteer. They are also fining companies for not providing lists of employed men under 50 years of age.
A Russian independent news source interviewed a volunteer serviceman who is accused of desertion. The volunteer shared that his battalion suffered tremendous losses when Ukraine started its counterattack last November. He claims that he did not desert as his contract was for four months, but that his commander tried to force him to stay longer.
It is now a crime to be captured according to the Russian Supreme Court which ruled what constitutes desertion. Even if encircled, Russian soldiers must fight on.
Russian customs data shows that China has sold $12 million worth of drones and drone parts to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began in violation of international sanctions.
The R-MoD announced the expansion of the size of Russia’s air defense forces adding another air defense division and brigade, form a special purpose air defense brigade, form a new anti-aircraft missile regiment, form a military transport aviation regiment, and add air defense systems to Moscow. But this will take several years and will not have an impact on the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Old Soviet T54/55 tanks from the 1950s are showing up in battles suggesting they have been taken out of storage due to the heavy losses of Russian equipment.
Russia is requiring civilians in occupied regions to be involved in military exercises and is offering homes that have been abandoned by Ukrainians IDPs and refugees to those who enlist in the RF.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Children from occupied Kherson will be sent to a camp in Vladivostok, Russia for rest. Vladivostok, which is closer to Alaska, is 4500 miles from Kherson.
Russian occupation authorities announced that people with disabilities will need to undergo re-examination under Russian rules to keep their disability status. And, of course, switching to Russian passports would be required.
Belarus
RF continue to be trained in Belarus and Belarusian forces continue various military exercise.
Other News
Russia conducted another drone attack on Ukraine over Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. They launched 21 drones against residential and infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine. UAF were able to shoot down 16 of them before they hit their targets. A residential building in Kyiv Oblast killed seven people and injured at least another seven. Two residential high-rise apartment buildings were struck in Zaporizhia killing one civilian and injuring at least another 33. The fact that there were no missiles suggests they are running low on such weaponry.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is weaponizing the UN Security Council which Russia is scheduled to take the presidency next month. They have already submitted a request for the UN to demand that Israel stops its bombing in Syria in retaliation for giving Ukraine anti-drone jamming technology. Then on Tuesday he called for the UNSC to hold hearings to discuss the Russian deportation of children from Ukrainian occupied territories in light of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants issued on Putin.
The second day of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin was frustrating for the Russian dictator as he was unable to get the bilateral partnership with China that he had desired. The two signed a joint statement of partnership and cooperation, but it did not go as far as Putin has wanted. Xi did praise Putin and reaffirmed China’s commitment to Russia. But Xi would not go as far to support Russia’s war against Ukraine.
International Support
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Kyiv on Tuesday to discuss sending military aid to Ukraine. Russia responded by announcing they deployed missile defense systems to the Russian-occupied Japanese Kuril Islands to signal to Japan not to exploit Russia’s current military vulnerability to take back the Kuril Islands.
Putin criticized the Western nations for supplying Ukraine with anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium which is able to penetrate tank armor more effectively. He tried to portray it as a nuclear threat, even though such uranium cannot be used to produce either nuclear or radioactive weapons.
The US Department of Defense announced that it authorized a presidential drawdown to provide another $350 million of security assistance to Ukraine to include ammunitions for HIMARS and artillery, as well as missiles and other military equipment.
The EU decided to raid their own arsenal and provide Ukraine with $2 billion worth of military equipment and arms.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.