UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Russia maintains the initiative on all fronts but at heavy cost. Ukraine still holds 35% of Bakhmut including all of the center.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues in Eastern Ukraine along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna defense line. Russian forces are conducting the highest number of artillery attacks along this line and averaging 10-12 assaults each day with some of their best troops indicating that this is still their priority to push Ukrainian forces back to Lyman. An embedded Russian journalist reported that Russian forces are advancing 1500 feet each day. Russian forces were successful in recapturing Raihorodka which is 7.5 miles west of Svatove. But farther south, Ukrainian forces have made a limited advance towards Kreminna near Dibrova and are only 3.5 miles from Kreminna now.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
Russian assaults in and around Bakhmut have significantly dropped over the last few days suggesting that Russian forces are regrouping. The Wagner Group forces have been greatly depleted in their assaults on Bakhmut, and conventional Russian forces have been seen rotating in to augment these losses so that the assault can continue. But Russian forces continue their advance in the city having taken another 5% of Bakhmut over the last few days, now controlling 65% of the city. From the north, Russian forces have taken the AZOM industrial complex. Russian journalists have been seen casually walking around the complex. From the south, Russian forces reached School #5 on Monday with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin freely visiting the school. Russian forces have moved up and have taken the central market and have reached the Palace of Culture on the edge of the city center.
Avdiivka
Higher quality Wagner Group elements have joined the assault on Avdiivka after the Donetsk Rebel Army has had some success encircling the city to the north. As the number of assaults are on the decrease around Bakhmut, they are increasing around Avdiivka. Ukraine has begun evacuating all city workers from Avdiivka and have turned off all mobile communications in the city due to the presence of Russian informants in the city. The only confirmed advance by Russian forces over the last few days was from the south of Avdiivka just north of Novomykhailivka which is 6 miles south of Avdiivka. The fighting has been at great expense for Russian forces who have lost a large portion of its tanks.
Vuhledar
Russian forces have replenished the troops that were lost during the assault on Vuhledar a few weeks ago with a new tank brigade and have restarted their assaults in the area. They initially made some advances just 2 miles south of Vuhledar. Russia also claims to have taken Novokalynove, 6 miles north of Avdiivka, but that has not been confirmed.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
Russian forces have cut in half the number of artilleries they are firing at Ukrainian troops in Southern Ukraine, but instead of introduced a new element to the fight using guided aerial bombs. Where they got these weapons is not known. But these bombs have twice the range of artillery.
Ukraine fired HIMARS rockets at several concentrations of Russian troops and at energy infrastructure. They hit a dormitory of a technical school that was being used as barracks by Russian forces in Melitopol. They also destroyed a power substation in Fedorivka.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov has been dismissed after his forces tragic defeat and losses in the battlefield around Vuhledar. Muradov leads all forces in the Donetsk Oblasts fighting Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Vuhledar. He has been replaced by Lieutenant General Sergei Kuzmenko who has been serving as the head of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff Academy. Kuzmenko has never led a combat operation or a command of this size. He is not expected to make any improvements in the regional campaigns.
Russia has not been successful in recruiting enough contract soldiers to reach their goal of recruiting another 400,000 troops to fight against Ukraine. Some Russian authorities have begun threatening a second mobilization if not enough volunteers sign contracts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the military recruitment age from 18-27 to 21-30. This suggests that rather than emphasize conscripting new forces, Russia instead intends to force current soldiers to fight longer. He also exempted volunteers in Ukrainian occupied territories from undergoing psychological examination to make it easier for them to join the Russian army.
A Russian military convoy of armored vehicles crashed speeding on the Kerch Strait Bridge resulting in significant damage to five of the vehicles.
Alexei Moskalyov, a Russian citizen living in the town of Efremov, has been arrested and charged with “discrediting the Russian armed forces” and is facing a prison sentence of three years and losing parental rights to his 13-year-old daughter Maria who he is raising as a single parent. It all started from his daughter’s school drawing of a Russian missile heading towards a Ukrainian girl and her mother. The teacher alerted the authorities who checked his social media page where he had posted criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Occupation Chief of Police in Mariupol was attacked on Monday by partisans who planted a car bomb. He was knocked unconscious but survived the attack with major injuries.
A draft law was approved declaring the occupied territories as Free Economic Zones to encourage investment and rebuilding in the region.
Preparations continue for the September referendum in the occupied territories with 2500 Ukrainians already registering to vote.
The occupation mayor of Nova Kakhovka has declared that anyone using the Ukrainian hryvnia as currency will face criminal charges and prison sentences. Russia has also declared that anyone who does not accept the Russian ruble as currency in the occupied regions will face criminal prosecution.
Belarus
The number of Russian troops in Belarus has dropped to only 4000.
Other News
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview by a Japanese publication that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive is on hold as western allies have not yet sent the weapons and ammunition they had promised for such an operation. Specifically, Ukraine needs more tanks, artillery, and HIMARS before they commit to an offensive.
The best estimate based on Ukrainian, Russian, and other sources, are that 166,750 Russian troops have been killed so far in Ukraine. Based on the average of 3 wounded to 1 killed, that would mean nearly 500,000 Russian troops have been injured. That is over half of the Russian army that started this war.
Ukraine turned to the United Nations on Sunday to prevent Russia’s nuclear blackmail of moving nuclear bombs into Belarus. There is no evidence that Russia had yet made good on this threat.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has drastically changed his format of being shown on television. He normally has always visited sites recently captured in the war by his troops with wide shots or in staged videos amongst his troops. But lately he has been mimicking President Putin’s preferred format of a closeup of him behind his desk. Rumors are circulating that he is positioning himself in this way in preparation for a presidential run in 2024.
Ukrainian crews who were in England being trained on operating the British Challenger 2 tanks have completed their training and have returned to Ukraine to rejoin the fight against Russia. All 14 Challenger tanks are already in Ukraine as well as 19 Leopard tanks provided by Germany.
Two Russian missiles struck Sloviansk, the largest city in Donetsk Oblast still held by Ukraine. Two civilians were killed and 29 injured when the missiles struck an orphanage and a five-story apartment complex.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.