UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF made some gains in Eastern Ukraine and Bakhmut, while UAF made some gains near Avdiivka.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF made some marginal advances towards Torske as they continue their push west from Kreminna. Geolocated footage confirms that RF are using thermobaric rocket systems against UAF in this sector.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
As RF continue to take more and more of Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the nation from Poland that although the situation in Bakhmut is difficult, RF are not yet near to encircling the UAF defending the western half of the city. But he assured the nation that he will order their withdrawal if it becomes necessary.
Within the city, RF continue their drive from the east moving past the Metallurg Stadium and seizing a school in central Bakhmut. They also made some advances towards encircling the city as they move towards Khromove (1.5 miles W) and continue driving north reaching the outskirts of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (7 miles NW). RF have begun using thermobaric artillery as well in the Battle for Bakhmut.
Avdiivka/Marinka
UAF advanced towards Novoselivka from the north retaking strategic trenches. They had made some advances towards Novobakhmutivka on Tuesday as reported and have begun shelling RF within that city. This is the first official confirmation that RF had captured Novobakhmutivka.
Vuhledar
No confirmed RF assaults were made around Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF continue to build defenses in Southern Ukraine. RS claim that UAF attacked near the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant with a drone, but this is probably an information operation.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
The Kremlin is developing a program of privileges for lower-level government officials signaling that they are concerned about losing loyalty in the regions. The new privileges will include installing vending machines in government offices, dedicated parking in the center of the cities, and preferential bank loan programs. So, this will help alleviate their minds from the senseless killing of women and children in Ukraine. At least they can buy snacks right at their offices, find parking spots, and get those loans they need.
Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed Colonel-General Nikolai Grechushkin from his post as the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Emergency Preparations as the government continues its crackdown on corruption in the military.
A note about the Russian Spring Conscription. Russia still has a draft, and all young men are required to serve a year in the Russian military. The goal this year is to train 150,000 young Russian men. But as I reported, these conscripts will most likely not be used in the war against Ukraine as that would create an uproar and threaten the security of the Russian regime. These conscripts are not part of the Russian professional army. But after they are trained, they then enter the reserves, and could be called up for military service. And already the Russian State Duma is preparing the ground for that to happen by passing the first draft of a bill that will allow conscripts to participate in peacekeeping operations. Current law states that only contract personnel can serve in such roles.
A Russian couple have been arrested for providing technical information about Russian tanks to Ukraine.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, under pressure from her UN indictment for war crimes, has announced that any parent in Ukraine can request the return of their child from Russian camps. But as that request must be in person, and Ukrainian men of fighting age (18-60) are not able to leave Ukraine, that is a hollow concession.
Russian occupation authorities are attempting to build loyalty among Ukrainian farmers by offering to pay them twice the amount for their crops as they used to get on the open market. They are also rebuilding some of the infrastructure such as the Luhansk Aircraft Repair Plant which has remained idle since Russia’s initial invasion in 2014. Or course, the plant will be servicing Russian military aircraft.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Moscow for two days of meetings. What the discussions are about it not yet known.
Another 2000 Russian troops that were training in Belarus have been deported to occupied Ukrainian territory leaving only 2000 left now in Belarus.
Belarusian military exercises continue. On Wednesday the 120th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade deployed to an unspecified area and an anti-aircraft regiment will hold tactical exercises at the Brest Training Ground.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his National Security Council as part of an information operation to consolidate Russian control over the Ukrainian occupied territories. They discussed the efforts to rebuild the regions and fight against partisan attacks labeling them as “terrorists”.
Putin also held another information operation to portray himself as a respected world leader during a televised meeting with Chinese officials in the backdrop. Putin presented 17 newly appointed ambassadors and appealed to the nations to join with him in an anti-US coalition. But China knocked his feet from under him after the presentation with their own televised statement that China does not support Russia’s war against Ukraine and does not provide Russia any weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed RF from the ruins of a school RF had used to imprison women and children in Yahidne announcing that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive was coming soon, and they still had a chance to leave Ukraine before they die.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced a new demining initiative to remove mines from the territories that Russia once occupied. The area is twice the size of Austria.
Russia summoned the French Ambassador to protest his posting of war crime accusations against Russia.
International Support
The U.S. announced on Tuesday another $2.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine which will include more HIMARS rockets and artillery ammunition. It also provides ammunition for the air defense systems they had sent Ukraine as well as ammunition for the Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles they have provided. The Abram tanks they promised should arrive in the Fall.
Former President Bill Clinton, who led the treaty talks known as the Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a US pledge to defend Ukraine’s borders, gave an interview on Wednesday stating that he is now sorry the deal was made with Ukraine. Ukraine was left defenseless, and the US did not guarantee her borders as promised.
President Zelensky started his day with a State visit to Poland where he received the prestigious White Eagle award and assurances of support to join the EU and NATO. Polish President Andrzej Duda also promised from MiG-29 fighter aircraft bringing their total gift to 16, with four of them already secretly delivered.
President Zelensky met with UNESCO officials who presented the official document declaring much of Odesa a World Heritage Site which now would make it a war crime if Russia were to bomb those historic sites.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba attended the first Ukraine-NATO commission in six years. Although the discussion was kept a secret, the fact such meetings has been revised gives Ukraine hope in one day joining NATO.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.