UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF still have the initiative in the war against Ukraine slowly making marginal advances in the Donbas regions. UAF have been successful in stopping the encirclement of their remaining forces in Bakhmut, but RF continue to move house by house and block by block in taking central Bakhmut.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. RF made marginal gains northwest of Kuzemivka (9.5 miles NW of Svatove).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
RF continue to make advances in Central Bakhmut. It has been confirmed by geolocated images that RF have taken the central train station and the Military Prosecutor’s Office. And they have made some marginal advances north of the T0504 Highway within Bakhmut city. RS also claim to have taken the Avangard Stadium and the Church of All Saints, but that has not yet been confirmed.
While RF are making progress in Bakhmut City, UAF are more focused on maintaining their supply and retreat lines open. UAF have pushed RF farther south from Ivanivske (3.5 miles W).
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF were devasted this last week in attacks around Avdiivka sustaining 4000 losses. These troops are being replaced by 4000 Russian troops that were being trained in Belarus. Whereas in other areas of conflict where Russian artillery fire has gone down significantly, Russian artillery fire has remained relatively constant in the Battle for Avdiivka indicating that it has become the new priority as Bakhmut is slowly being conquered. The heaviest fighting is over the city of Marinka where 36% of the ground attacks in the sector were held. UAF are holding their ground.
Russia is running a false information operation claiming that a UAF unit surrendered in the Avdiivka region and was intentionally fired upon by UAF as they were being transported to the rear area for processing.
Vuhledar
UAS report that no offensive activity is occurring around Vuhledar, but RS claim that there is activity. So far, the evidence supports UAS claims.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
Satellite imagery confirms that large amounts of Russian armored vehicles, tanks, and towed artillery systems have been removed from a weapons depot in occupied Medvedivka (12.5 miles NE of Dzhankoy) over the last month. Although its destination is unknown, it was most likely moved out of fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. It was either moved farther back to protect against a HIMARS rocket attack, or closer to the front line.
RF are not making any ground assaults in the region but continue their daily routine artillery barrages.
Likewise, UAF are concentrating on striking Russian rear positions striking the airfield in Melitopol and several artillery positions along the frontlines.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
A recently captured document was released on Thursday that outlines a detail of new Russian formations called Storm Z companies made up of reservists. These companies of 100 men are focused on capturing strategic urban targets such as strongholds, command posts, and communication centers. But these units only receive two weeks of refresher training, which is a remarkable short period of time to adequately train to perform such complex combat tasks and create unit cohesion. These units are being deployed mostly in the Avdiivka sector.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited the Arzamas Machine Building Plant in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast to monitor the implementation of state defense orders. The plant has been underperforming and Shoigu is investigating the reasons for this. This is a problem throughout the Russian defense industries, and some are suggesting granting workers who put in five years of work at a defense plant receive the same benefits as those in military service in order to recruit more workers.
Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers have opened an investigation in the Omsk Oblasts of residents who fled abroad to avoid mobilization.
Russian aviation forces are changing their tactics to huge losses as Ukraine continues to rebuild their air defense systems provided by Western countries. Russian aircraft are staying within Russian territory at least 50 km away from the Ukrainian border out of range of these air defense systems. They are relying on launching guided aerial bombs instead from such a distance. Although the accuracy is less precise, it will prevent Ukraine from shooting down their aircraft.
There is some evidence that Russia is not having the success they normally do in conscripting young Russian men into the annual spring conscription. Extra conscription offices are opening up in various locations around Russia, mass advertising has increased, and notices are going out to companies to not hire men who have not complied with their mandatory one-year army service.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian President Vladimir Putin met one-on-one meetings with the four regional leaders of the occupied territories. Donetsk head Denis Pushilin said he discussed water supply, constructing roads, and expanding railways with the President. Luhansk head Leonid Pasechnik said he discussed social, housing, and communal services, as well as education and medicine. Zaporizhia head Yevgeny Balitsky said he discussed the restoration of transport infrastructure. And Kherson head Vladimir Saldo said he discussed gas supply in the occupied region.
Part of those talks were surely about the disappointing numbers of Ukrainian citizens obtaining Russian passports. The occupied regions have been using many tactics to force Ukrainians to obtain these passports such as restricting movement, subjecting to constant searches, and restricting employment. Authorities are even employing violent methods to those who refuse Russian passports such as torture.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow on Wednesday and Thursday to focus on strengthening Russian economic control over Belarus. 74% of the measures of integration have already been implemented such as taxation, business standards, and trade legislation. They are discussing ways to get around international sanctions placed on their countries and developing a single oil, gas, and electricity market. Russia is also looking for ways to gain more control over the Belarusian military complex. Lukashenko did make a show of Belarus’ independence by making it clear that Belarus will continue to stay out of the Russian-Ukraine war.
Other News
French President Emmanuel Macron met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday and urged Xi to put pressure on Putin to end the invasion of Ukraine and bring everyone back to the negotiation table. Xi maintained China is remaining neutral in this conflict and refused to condemn either Russia or the West. But he did not indicate he would put any pressure on Russia to end the conflict.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his counterpart in Turkey on Friday and stated that Russia is willing to come to the negotiation table, but only when Ukraine recognizes Russia’s “legitimate” claims over Ukrainian territory.
International Support
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.