UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive may have begun, but if it has, it will be a slow and conservative advance rather than a swift attack. There is evidence of UAF conducting reconnaissance along the Zaporizhian line and around Vuhledar. RF made some limited advances in Bakhmut and around Avdiivka over the last four days.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but neither side made a confirmed advance over the last four days. Video footage released on Tuesday shows UAF driving a captured Russian TOS-1A thermobaric artillery system.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
RF have made limited advances within Bakhmut over the last four days and now control nearly 88% of the city. From the south, RF have advanced past the T0504 highway along the railway line. From the north, RF are inching closer to the House of Culture. RF are also again trying to encircle what remains of the UAF in Bakhmut by making some limited advancements towards Khromove just west of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka/Marinka
Fighting continues in the campaign to recapture Marinka and encircle Avdiivka. The only confirmed advance by RF was in reaching the H-20 Highway northeast of Krasnohorivka (2 miles N of Avdiivka). Former Russian officer Igor Girkin claimed that RF are experiencing significant casualties in the fighting around Avdiivka like their earlier losses in the failed assault on Vuhledar.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
RF made no confirmed advances in Western Donetsk. But there is evidence that UAF have begun a conservative counteroffensive in the region near Novomykhailivka (6 miles SW) and Pavlivka (2 miles SW).
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF are building fortifications and defensive lines in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in preparation for a Ukraine Spring Counteroffensive. It was believed that the counteroffensive would come from Zaporizhia Oblast, and some UAF have begun reconnaissance along that line. But that may just be a feint while the main UAF cross the Dnipro River and attack eastern Kherson Oblast instead. RF have begun mining along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River but could not stop UAF as they moved most of their troops to defend against an attack from Zaporizhia. Russia has added another surface missile carrier to their Black Sea Fleet to defend against any attack.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
After the Russian Winter Offensive was over and the R-MoD leadership declared a dismal failure, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is back in favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin. At least three motorized rifle brigades are how being trained by Wagner Force to join their ranks and the Russian airborne forces (VDV) seem to be working for Wagner Group and not the R-MoD covering the flanks of Wagner Group as they continue to attempt to take Bakhmut. The Russian State Duma is even considering a new law granting veteran status to those who fight with a private army like the Wagner Group. Part of Putin’s rationale to improve relations with Wagner Group forces is his reluctancy to call for a general mobilization which could lead to the overthrow of his regime from public resistance.
The Russian State Duma approved a new set of laws to discourage any criticism of the war against Ukraine. The maximum prison sentence for high treason was increased from 20 years to life. The bill also allows for the revocation of Russian citizenship for anyone criticizing the Russian military or for participating in a nongovernmental organization considered undesirable by the government.
Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentence to 25 years in prison on the charge of high treason simply for criticizing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russian public relations specialist Yaroslav Shirshikov, who had handled the visit by Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich who was arrested on charges of espionage, was arrested on Tuesday and charged with terrorism for simply reporting on the assassination of milblogger Maxim Fomin on his personal social media page.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Gulagu.net, a Russian human rights organization, released a video interview of two former members of the Wagner Group forces who were recruited in prison and received pardons upon completing their contracts. Azamat Yaldarov shared that his unit was ordered to kill every man, woman, and child while taking control of Soledar, and that he personally buried 18 children that he had killed during his contract with Wagner Group forces. Aleksey Savich, who was a commander of a reconnaissance unit in the Wagner Group, that he had ordered the execution of 80 Wagner fighters for not following orders. He also shared that he was given the order to kill every man, woman, and child while taking Bakhmut. His unit executed 23 civilians, 10 of whom were unarmed teenagers. Some of his victims were as young as five years old. Expect to read about the death of these two brave men in the next few days.
Kherson Oblast occupation authorities have ordered that all civilian boats be seized and transferred to RF in occupied Kherson Oblast. Owners can apply for compensation or wait until after the war for the eventual return of their boats.
Other News
Last Sunday, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and pledged to strengthen military exchanges and cooperation between Russia and China.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the frontline troops defending Avdiivka on Tuesday. The Kremlin was concerned about Zelensky being portrayed as a wartime leader while Putin stayed comfortably in Moscow. So, the Kremlin released a video of Putin visiting the frontline troops the day before. The only problem was that in the video, Putin talks about the upcoming Easter holidays that would have already passed. The video footage was probably from an earlier visit back in March and was simply released now to compete with Zelensky’s visit. The mention of the upcoming Easter holidays has been erased from the video and reposted. Putin did travel to the occupied regions, though, and met with the Russian commanders. He simply neglected to make a photo-op of the visit and had to use some old footage. During this visit Putin also met with Colonel General Alexander Lapin. Lapin was the leader of the Luhansk forces and an ally of the Wagner Group. When Putin had switched favor to the R-MoD leading the fight against Ukraine, Lapin had been demoted. Meeting with Lapin again is another sign of the fortunes rising for the Wagner Forces.
RF launched 12 military drones on Tuesday and Wednesday night, ten of which were shot down by UAF air defenses. It is believed that the attacks were made to search for holes in the Ukraine air defense systems and targets were secondary to the mission.
The commander of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Admiral Sergei Avakyants, was demoted to the Russian headquarters overseeing Russia’s military sports training and patriotic education centers on Wednesday. The reason given for the demotion was him reaching the age of 65, but many Russian commanders are older. It is not known the real reason, but the poor performance of naval infantry units in the attacks on Vuhledar may have been a contributing factor.
International Support
The eight Leopard 2 tanks promised by Canada have now arrived in Ukraine. Denmark and the Netherlands promised to purchase 14 Leopard 2 tanks together and give them to Ukraine. A total of 150 tanks have been promised by Western allies.
The first of four Patriot surface-to-air defense missile system promised by Germany has now been delivered to Ukraine. The US also delivered a Patriot system as promised.
Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva has been quiet about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as it is an ally of Russia. But on Tuesday he finally publicly condemned the Russian violation of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made an unannounced visit to Kyiv and declared that Ukraine belongs in NATO. He also stated that NATO will insure that Ukraine is victorious in this war with Russia.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.