UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF have made very limited advancements on Friday, most in and around the city of Bakhmut. Ukraine is staying silent as it prepares for its counteroffensive.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
There were no confirmed ground advances by RF or UAF on Friday. UAF did shell RF positions just north of Lysychansk.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
RF continue their slow drive north of Bakhmut farther north from Dubovo-Vasylivka (4 miles NW). Within the city, it has been confirmed that RF have captured the Bakhmut-2 railway station in the center of the city and have advanced even farther west . But RF have not been able to encircle UAF defending Bakhmut.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF made no confirmed ground advances around Avdiivka, but it was confirmed that RF made some limited advances in recapturing Marinka.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
RF are again conducting assaults around Vuhledar but made no progress. RF were able to make marginal gains in Western Donetsk moving a little north of Mykilske (17 miles SW of occupied Donetsk city).
Southern Ukraine (Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts)
Evidence continues to show that the Ukrainian Counteroffensive will occur in Southern Ukraine. Russia has gambled that it will be a push south in Zaporizhia Oblast, but Ukraine just might surprise everyone and cross the Dnipro River and liberate eastern Kherson Oblast. RS are claiming that UAF have already crossed the Dnipro River and have established positions on the east bank of the river. They have not attempted to move deeper into Kherson because of supply line issues. They have even now begun crossing the river in broad daylight rather than at night. But UAF are also reportedly advancing south along the Zaporizhia line according to RS.
RF continue their daily shelling west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law stricter penalties for anyone making an unauthorized entry into a critical energy infrastructure facility or any facility operated by or protected by the Russian National Guard, Russian National Police, or Russian military. These new regulations will allow Russia to keep what they are doing behind those closed doors a secret.
Russia continues to rely on regional governments raising up their own private armies to fight in Ukraine, rather than call for a national mobilization.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian occupation authorities are building a second road on the Arabat Spit rather than repair the existing road. This will give them two roads to use for supply and logistics in defending the Arabat Spit from the Ukrainian Counteroffensive.
Released video footage shows Wagner Force troops removing families and children from Bakhmut and sending them to undisclosed locations farther east.
Other News
RF used a new delivery of Shahed drones from Iran to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, this time attacking Kyiv for the first time in 25 days. 38 drones were launched over the last 24 hours with 29 of them having been shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems. The drones that hit their targets in Kyiv did not do any significant damage though.
A Russian SU-34 fighter-bomber accidentally dropped a bomb on the Russian city of Belgorod as it flew overhead injuring three civilians. The cause of the accident is not known, nor the reason it was flying over a heavily populated city. Fortunately, the bomb did not hit a residential building.
Fighting between two Russian factions – Wagner Group and the Angry Patriots Club – erupted over the last few days. The Angry Patriots Club is led by former Donetsk army commander Igor Girkin leads a pro-war organization of which many of its members have threatened to lead a revolution if Russia does not continue its goal of conquering all of Ukraine. Girkin attacked Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who may have left the pro-war camp and is now supporting a defensive posture to hold on to what Russia has conquered, take the time to secure and rebuild, and then attack Ukraine again.
International Support
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.