UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Russian Winter Offensive has seemed to have culminated. RF made no confirmed advances over the last two days, but UAF have begun to push RF back already.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
UAF have regained the initiative along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line making marginal advances south of Kreminna near Verkhnokamyanske (11 miles S) and Bilohorivka (7.5 miles S). RF have not even conducted any confirmed assaults on the line and has switched to a defensive mode. Meanwhile, UAF continue to shell areas behind the lines. On Saturday UAF conducted a HIMARS strike against RF in occupied Alchevsk and on Monday an oil depot in occupied Rovenky.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
Over the weekend, RF made limited advances in and around Bakhmut reaching the T0506 Highway northwest of Khromove. But it was not enough to force UAF to withdraw from Bakhmut as Ukraine still controls the much more important T0504 Highway as well as many country roads. But RF were completely stopped from any advances on Sunday and Monday and UAF even began to push RF back away from Khromove to reopen the T0506. I am not ready to say yet that Ukraine has gained the initiative in Bakhmut yet.
Avdiivka/Marinka
Although fighting continues around Avdiivka and Marinka, RF have been stopped from any confirmed advances over the last few days.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
RF did not conduct any confirmed attacks in Western Donetsk. RF did conduct an airstrike on Vuhledar on Sunday suggesting they may be preparing for another assault on the city. But RF do not have the strength to make any significant gains if they could even manage that.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
It has been confirmed that UAF have crossed the Dnipro River and have established positions on the east bank. It also confirms that RF have been pushed off the islands in the Dnipro River. It is very likely that UAF are preparing for the counteroffensive to retake all of Kherson. Supporting that is the increase of UAF attacking RF positions in the rear areas. UAF even conducted a drone attack against the Russian Black Sea Fleet attacking the base in Sevastopol. Several buildings were seen on video on fire.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is attempting to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to go over to the defensive ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive to better survive the wave and be in a better position in the long run. Putin seems to be listening as RF are no longer advancing but digging into their positions. This has created the repair of the strained relations between Prigozhin and the R-MoD who is also recommending a defensive posture. But Putin has not completely bought into the defensive approach as assaults are still be attempted, just not at the same level.
The Russian military is blocking the evacuation of wounded soldiers from Ukraine to prevent soldiers from leaving the combat zone. This has contributed to the deaths of Russian soldiers who need better medical attention. Russia is afraid of Russian soldiers feigning injuries to escape combat.
One of the former Wagner Force commanders who admitted in a news interview that he was ordered to kill all women and children has been arrested.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Roman Catholics in the occupied regions are experiencing persecution by Russian occupation authorities. The Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary in Berdyansk has been seized and turned over to the Russian Orthodox Church.
Wagner Forces have been seen along the east bank of the Dnipro River looting the homes of civilians who have been forcibly moved.
Belarus
Belarusian military units continue to conduct training exercises and went through a combat readiness checks over the weekend.
Other News
The United States relented and issued a visa to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to lead a session of the UN Security Council on Monday.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.