UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
UAF conducted their most devastating counterattack this year as they pushed RF up to two miles back from Khromove (northwest of Bakhmut) and Ivanivske (southwest of Bakhmut) on Wednesday inflicting over 500 casualties. UAF also made some other counterattacks pushing RF away from Avdiivka and Vuhledar. These are tactical moves in preparation for the coming Ukrainian Counteroffensive.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
RF continue to fight around the forests surrounding Kreminna and to capture Bilohorivka. Other than those two locations, RF are limiting their assaults to gaining better positions to defend against the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
UAF shelled RF positions in Rubizhne with four HIMARS rockets over the weekend.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
The R-MoD has moved from the offensive to the defensive in preparation for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive. This has been to the consternation of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who continues his attempt to capture all Bakhmut. He threatened last Thursday to pull his forces out of Bakhmut by May 10 unless the R-MoD begins to supply his forces with the necessary supplies and ammunition. This is unlikely to happen as the R-MoD is stockpiling such supplies and ammunition to defend against the coming counteroffensive. Prigozhin has appointed former Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev as the deputy commander of the Wagner Group in hopes that he will help them procure the needed military supplies. Mizintsev had been dismissed by the R-MoD after it was discovered that the Russian Northern Fleet was lacking supplies and failed its readiness check.
The following day, Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov signed an agreement to turn over the campaign to capture Bakhmut to the Chechen leader. They have appealed directly to President Putin to approve this maneuver bypassing the R-MoD. This blackmail tactic seems to have worked as the R-MoD promised to continue supplying Wagner Group forces with the ammunition they are requesting. But after the weekend, Prigozhin announced that he was only receiving 10% of what he requested.
The R-MoD instead issued their own blackmail threatening to arrest Prigozhin under treason charges if he went through with his threat. Prigozhin caved on Tuesday and announced he would not be withdrawing from Bakhmut on Wednesday.
Wagner Group forces continue their attempts to move from the northwest against Khromove to force UAF to withdraw from their remaining positions in Bakhmut. But even if Khromove were to fall, UAF have been successful in pushing RF back from Ivanivske to keep the T0504 Highway open as a supply route. Wagner Group forces also made some limited advancements in western Bakhmut city. UAF are only in control of 2.36 square km of the city.
UAF launched a HIMARS rocket attack on Tuesday against a prison facility in Bakhmut which was being used as barracks by Wager Group forces. UAF had their largest counterattack of the year on Wednesday as they pushed RF back from Khromove and Ivanivske. Wagner Group forces suffered over 500 casualties in the attacks with over 60 of them being deaths. RF were pushed back two miles in some locations.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF made no confirmed advances around Avdiivka or Marinka, although fighting continues, but at a much smaller intensity.
UAF made a successful counterattack pushing RF back towards Vodiane (4.5 miles SW).
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
RF have made no confirmed assaults against Vuhledar or anywhere else in Western Donetsk. But UAF have conducted some successful counterattacks pushing RF out of Mykilske to the outskirts of that city and made marginal advances near Novodonetsk.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
Russian occupation officials announced the forcible removal of 70,000 Ukrainian citizens in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast along the Dnipro River to positions 20-40 kilometers back. This suggests that RF plan to conduct a controlled fighting withdrawal when the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.
Satellite images have confirmed that UAF successfully blew up at least three oil storage tanks in Sevastopol, Crimea, last week. UAF launched a large drone attack on RF positions throughout Crimea, but the results of the attack are not known. But it has placed Crimea on alert.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
The R-MoD excluded military recruits from Chechnya from the additional compensations being offered for servicemen to join the Russian forces. This was done by request from Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov who is raising his own personal army but does not want to pay the additional salary for these troops.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
The sale of hard liquor has been banned in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast until August 3 to maintain control. The only exception is for beer products.
Occupied Kherson authorities have imported doctors from the Adygea Republic to examine 4500 Ukrainian children for the purpose of justifying their deportation to Russia for rest and rehabilitation.
As reported above, Ukrainians are being forcibly removed back from the front lines in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts. But a disturbing element of this is that the men of fighting age are being separated into their own camps for the possible forced conscription into the Russian army.
Other News
An international incident occurred at the 61st Plenary Session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Community for which Russia and Ukraine are both members. Ukrainian parliament member Oleksandr Marikovsky was holding a Ukrainian flag in front of Ukraine’s official display area when Russian diplomat Valery Stavitsky grabs the flag as he walks by and begins to run towards the Russian display area. Marikovsky chases after and pummels him with several punches before gaining possession of the flag back. Stavitsky had his glasses knocked off and appeared disoriented after the attack.
An assassination attempt was made against Russian nationalist Zakhar Prilepin, the co-leader of the “A Just Russia” political party, last Friday. An explosive device was planted in his car killing his driver and seriously injuring the politician. Russian officials accused Ukraine of the assassination attempt. Although “A Just Russia” fully supports the war against Ukraine, it does oppose Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on the country. It is just as likely that Putin attacked one of his opponents.
The UAF use of HIMARS rockets has been much less effective recently as RF have developed ways to jam the U.S. made system.
For the first time since 1941, Russia has begun removing its naval fleet from Sevastopol (Crimea) to safer waters back in Russia. UAF continue to launch drone attacks at the ships and is threatening to liberate Crimea in the coming counteroffensive.
RF launched another large-scale missile and drone strike throughout Ukraine during the early morning hours on Monday. All 35 drones were eliminated before reaching their targets. It is not known how many of the 16 missiles hit their targets, but all missiles targeting Kyiv were shot down. The falling debris still injured five people. We had a short-term team from Missouri who reported hearing explosions in Dnipro where they were ministering. RF then launched another 25 missiles on Tuesday morning, but all but two were shot down. This time there were no injuries. It has been confirmed that the U.S. Patriot missile defense is now operational and shot down at least one of those missiles.
Russian occupation officials in Transnistria, Moldova, has requested that Russia send more forces as they feel that Ukraine may invade their region during the coming counteroffensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin used the annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9 to showcase his leadership over the Commonwealth of Independent States with the leaders of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan by his side.
International Support
On Friday, the EU announced it will allocate another €1 billion for Ukraine to purchase ammunition from EU countries.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, visited President Zelensky in Kyiv on Tuesday to discuss Ukraine’s eventual EU membership.
On Tuesday, the U.S. announced another $1.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine which includes artillery ammunition. But Ukraine will have to wait as it will not come from existing stocks but must first be produced.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.