UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
UAF continue their counterattacks northwest and southwest of Bakhmut drawing RF from defending Southern Ukraine to stop these counterattacks. This is making Southern Ukraine an easier target for the coming counteroffensive. UAF are beefing up their shelling of RF positions in Southern Ukraine to soften them up further.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
RF continue attacking along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, but no confirmed advances have been made. Some RS claim that RF captured Masyutivka (7.5 miles NE of Kupyansk) and have established a bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil River. Other RS claim that RF had taken Masyutivka and then retreated unable to secure its position. Even if these claims were true, it would give RF no tactical advantage as UAF would still control the high ground over Masyutivka making its capture useless to RF. Confirmed RF assaults on UAF east of Masyutivka suggest that RF are not in control of Masyutivka.
RS also claim that RF have retreated from Novoselivske and established a new defense line along the eastern side of the rail line outside of Novoselivske. The RS claimed that the decision to retreat was a tactical move as the city is destroyed and not worth defending.
Neither side reported any RF assaults around Kreminna, but some UAS claim that UAF broke through the RF defense line in the area. This was denied by RS.
Russia is deploying additional manpower and equipment from Belarus to reinforce their positions in Luhansk Oblast. These troops are newly trained or convicts.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
UAF continue to make gains northwest and southwest of Bakhmut. UAF are pushing RF back from Bohdanivka in the northwest towards Yahidne and Berkhivka. They are also pushing southwest from Ivanivske towards Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. UAF are also confirmed pushing back RF towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka. RS claim that RF have retreated from the forest areas southwest of Ivanivske. UAF are also shelling RF positions northeast of Bila Hora. These counterattacks are giving Ukraine a better position for the coming counteroffensive, but they are mainly being conducted to tire out the RF so they cannot defend effectively against the counteroffensive.
Russia is deploying more troops supposedly from Southern Ukraine to bolster their positions and slow down the Ukrainian counterattacks around Bakhmut. This just may be Ukraine’s strategy in these counterattacks to force RF to redeploy from defending Southern Ukraine to stage the counteroffensive in that region.
RF continue to advance in the city of Bakhmut with UAF controlling only 1 square mile of the western suburbs. RF charged though the middle of these suburbs cutting them in half. RF blew up a bridge in Ivanivske which is the lifeline to the UAF on the southern side of these suburbs and are close to cutting off supplies to the northern part. It is very likely that UAF will be forced to evacuate Bakhmut entirely on Wednesday.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF continue to unsuccessfully attempt assaults towards Avdiivka. RS claim to have reached within walking distance of the Coke Chemical Plant on the northern edge of Avdiivka, but there is no confirmation of this claim. There is confirmation that RF have made some advances in Marinka.
UAF have made some limited advances near Kruta Balka according to RS. But again, no confirmation has been made.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
There were no RF assaults in Western Donetsk over the last three days.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
Russia is using a combination of sea missile carriers, kamikaze drones, and reconnaissance drones to attack UAF positions in Southern Ukraine in order to confuse Ukrainian air defense systems. They are hoping to get lucky and hit Ukrainian weapon depots being stocked up for the counteroffensive. RF are concentrating their attacks on Ochakiv, Stanislav, Kizomys, Chornobaivka, and Tokarivka. RF are also heavily shelling around Hulyaipole along the Zaporizhian Defense Line. It is estimated that Russia has 152,000 troops in Southern Ukraine preparing to defend against the coming counteroffensive. And they have moved a missile ship into the Sea of Azov for the first time armed with eight Kalibr missiles to defend the Kerch Strait Bridge.
RS claim that UAF made an assault new Mali Shcherbaky with limited success, but this has not been confirmed nor claimed by UAS.
UAF are softening up RF defense in the region with HIMARS strikes against Tokmak, Molochansk, and Melitopol. They are also shelling Vasylivka and Polohy with MLRS. And they conducted three airstrikes against Russian air defense systems around Skadovsk.
RF are also intensifying security and military presence at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant ZNPP). There are now 2500 Russian troops alone defending the ZNPP. ZNPP employees have had their cell phones seized and communication between personnel is highly restricted, as is movement on the territory.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
RF continue to bolster their manpower losses by recruiting prisoners. 1000 convicts have arrived in the occupied territories over the last few days alone. Wagner Group is training around 10,000 volunteers in Russia they hope to transfer soon to the frontlines.
Leaked US intelligence was posted in the Washington Post indicating that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin attempted to make a deal with the Ukrainian military leadership. They offered to give information about R-MoD sizes and formations along the defense line in exchange for UAF retreating from Bakhmut. This would give the Wagner Group a victory at the expense of their opposition in the R-MoD. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the offer was made, but that Ukraine turned it down as they did not trust Prigozhin. Prigozhin at first called it fake news, but then later admitted that it was normal practice by saying “in any war, exchanges are made, and this is not a secret for the warring parties.” Prigozhin is confident that Russia cannot remove him in the near term as it would result in a military catastrophe around Bakhmut.
The Kremlin has banned high-ranking government officials from resigning during the war. Several regional governors and members of Putin’s cabinet have threatened to resign which would cause chaos within the government.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian officials continue to prepare for local elections within the occupied regions set for September 2023. Meetings were held on Sunday to discuss fairness and safety during the elections. The various precincts are also being set up.
Russian occupation officials are planning on holding 153 summer camps for children in Donetsk Oblast. 16,000 children will attend these camps. They also announced that another 8300 children will be sent to camps in other regions of Russia.
The head of the police in Luhansk Oblast was injured in a partisan attack while he was visiting a barber shop in Luhansk city. One person was killed and another six injured in the attack.
RF shut down the Evangelical Church of the Holy Trinity in Mariupol and turned their church into a military barracks.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made a public address to his generals on Monday to quell rumor he was sick and dying.
Other News
RF conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in the early morning hours of Sunday and again on Tuesday. It was not clear how many drones and missiles were launched on Sunday morning, but UAF shot down 25 drones and three missiles. Infrastructure targets were hit in Ternopol, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast). A massive explosion occurred in Khmelnitsky igniting an ammunition depot. The explosion damaged the windows of Marina’s relatives’ house six miles away. RF launched 25 missiles and 9 drones on Tuesday morning, but all of them were shot down including six Kinzhal missiles which were unstoppable before Ukraine received the U.S. Patriot Missile System. One of the Kinzhal missiles damaged a Patriot system when it crashed to the ground, but it is fixable.
The Wagner Group released a video of a killed American volunteer found in captured rubble in the city of Bakhmut. They reported that he had fought well and because of this, his body would be returned to US authorities. The body is yet unidentified.
Russia and Iran signed an agreement on Tuesday to construct a railway connecting the Iranian cities of Rasht and Astara to St. Petersburg.
International Support
Over the last few days President Zelensky has met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. France announced that they will train Ukrainian troops in the use of their tanks and promised to send military aid to Ukraine as long as it takes to defeat Russia. The UK also promised the delivery of long-range drones to Ukraine and will begin training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighters. Germany had already pledged another €3 billion in military aid the day before Zelensky made the visit.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.