I took a break from the war and took Marina and Vika to Galicia, Spain to walk 75 miles (120 km) along the Camino de Santiago. It was a much-needed break. I will attempt to catch you up on what happened in Ukraine while we were gone.
May 23
When I left for Spain, two units of pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteers had attacked a Russian border post and advanced 2000 feet (600 m) to occupy the Russian border town of Kozinka. They had with them two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles. At least one Russian border guard was killed. They then opened fire on Russian soldiers in the neighboring towns of Glotovo and Gora-Podol. Thousands of Russian civilians fled as their towns were under attack. The attacks escalated as administrative buildings came under attack in Borisovka and Grayvoron by Russian pro-Ukrainian partisans. It was even reported that Interior Ministry and police department stationed in Belgorod came under attack. Ukraine denied any involvement in the attacks and when Russia countered that by asking where they got the tanks and armored vehicles, Ukraine responded in the same way that Russia responded when accused of supplying tanks and weapons to the Ukrainian rebels back in 2014 – “you can purchase those items at any military store.” An attempt to expel the pro-Ukrainian fighters on the second day turned into an embarrassing failure as a Russian unit was defeated and several Russian vehicles captured. By the end of the day, the two Russian rebel units had returned to Ukraine.
The Wagner Group claimed to have captured all Bakhmut, although Ukraine denied that reporting that they still had troops in the southwest corner of the city. Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks north and south of Bakhmut making some progress at pushing Russian forces back from Ivanivske stopping all hope of any further Russian advances past Bakhmut for the foreseeable future.
Western allies continue to support Ukraine. Although the United States has ruled out supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, they have given permission to European countries to provide the F-16s to Ukraine and has offered to train Ukrainian pilots. The European Union transferred €1.5 billion to Ukraine on May 23rd.
May 24
British Defense Minister Ben Wallace arrived in Kyiv to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov to discuss delivery of more weapons, continuation of providing military training, and Ukraine’s accession to NATO. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO until the conflict with Russia was over, but that NATO is considering a similar defense agreement similar to what they have with Israel.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin criticized the Russian government for its failed invasion of Ukraine. He noted that the reason given for the invasion was to demilitarize and denazify an historical region of Russia that had become an illegitimate country. Prigozhin noted that they exact opposite has occurred. Now Ukraine is known as a legitimate county all around the world and has been heavily militarized. Ukraine now has ten times the weapons and twenty times the troops than they did at the start of the invasion.
The capture of Bakhmut came at a huge cost for the Wagner Group for territory of no strategic value. Wagner Group admits to the death of 20,000 troops in the Battle for Bakhmut, but there are at least 14,000 convicts they had recruited of whom are unaccounted. It is believed that up to 40,000 Russians died in the Battle for Bakhmut.
In the Battle for Luhansk it was confirmed that Russian forces had recaptured Yahidne some days ago.
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church separated farther from its former slave-masters, The Russian Orthodox Church, by officially changing the date of Christmas from January 7 to December 25, which means there will be two Christmases in 2023 in Ukraine.
Ukraine attacked the Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet with three drones. Russia claimed its crew shot down all drones, but Ukraine released video footage of the ship being hit.
Russia conducted a missile attack on Sumy region destroying a kindergarten (no more Nazis there) injuring one civilian.
May 25
Russia launched 36 Iranian drones against Kyiv in the early morning hours, but all of them were destroyed by the US Patriot Missile system deployed over the capital. Then another missile and drone attack was launched in the evening, again with all targeting Kyiv destroyed. Some did hit their targets in Dnipro though.
Russia summoned Swedish ambassador Malena Mard to inform her that the Swedish consulate was being shut down and all five Swedish diplomats working from there would be expelled from the country.
The Wagner Group began their withdrawal from Bakhmut turning over the defense of the city to the Donetsk rebel army. The withdrawal will be complete by June 1 Prigozhin said.
The US Department of State approved the sale of the NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) air defense to Ukraine for $285 million.
Military pundits have been waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive to start with a tank blitzkrieg, but the signs are there that a much more low-keyed counter-offensive has already begun. Ukrainian officials claim that it started weeks ago with long-range attacks on Russian artillery and strategic raids. And the Russian offensive has culminated, and they have taken a defensive posture.
Ukraine conducted a prisoner swap with the Wagner Group receiving 106 POWs back who were defending Bakhmut. It was not announced what Ukraine gave in return and why the swap was made with the Wagner Group without the Russian Ministry of Defense involved.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in Minsk to finalize the agreement allowing Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.
The Ramstein Contact Group completed their meeting and announced a new package of weapons on their way to Ukraine including a $300 million US package with more HIMARS; a $117 million Finnish package; a $60 million Lithuanian package; four Leopard 2 tanks from Spain; and a commitment from Denmark and the Netherlands to provide F-16 pilot training for Ukraine. South Korea, a guest at the conference, also promised to provide hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of artillery.
There were explosions recorded in Russian and Russian-occupied territories in the evening including the Russian-occupied city of Berdyansk and the Russian city of Krasnodar. The Russian airfield in Rostov was also hit.
Russia blew up the Karlivsky Dam 9.5 miles (15 km) west of Donetsk city causing 30 people to be evacuated.
In the Battle for Luhansk it was confirmed that Russia recaptured the town of Karmazynivka on a prior date.
In the Battle for Bakhmut Ukrainian forces advanced north of the 0506 Highway.
May 26
Japan announced new sanctions against Russia against 17 individuals, 78 groups, and 80 organizations in line with the other G7 nations who had met with Japan earlier.
Russia conducted another missile strike against Dnipro hitting a medical clinic killing one person and injuring at least 25 others.
Canada announced at the Ramstein Contact Group that they would deliver 43 Sidewinder missiles to Ukraine.
In the Battle for Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces continue to slowly advance north of Bakhmut towards the town of Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
May 27
Kyiv Day, celebrating the founding of the city 1541 years ago, starts today.
Anti-Russian protestors gathered at Tbilisi Airport as the first flight from Moscow to Tbilisi since 2019 landed in the Georgian capital. Russian President Vladimir Putin was surprised that a protest was staged.
May 28
Russia launched its 14th missile and drone attack this month. This was a massive drone attack as a Kyiv Day gift with 59 Iranian drones launched against the capital. 58 of them were shot down, but the one that got through killed a man and injured a woman. It is believed that the reason Russia is targeting Kyiv even though almost all missiles and drones are shot down, is to force Ukraine to defend the capital with their only Patriot Air Defense System rather than use it to defend Ukrainian troops in the counter-offensive. Ukraine desperately needs more Patriot Air Defense Systems.
May 29
Russia launched its 15th and 16th missile and drone attack this month. In the early morning hours, the biggest attack since the invasion began over a year ago was launched against Kyiv. 40 missiles were fired of which 37 were shot down. And 35 Iranian drones were launched of which 29 were downed. Two civilians were killed and another three injured in the attack. Then hours later another barrage was fired against the capital and other cities. Again, all missiles and drones launched against Kyiv were shot down. One missile hit a military installation in Khmelnitsky destroying five aircraft. An apartment was hit in Dnipropetrovsk region killing one man and injuring nine people. Another missile hit a village in Kharkiv region leaving six people wounded, including a pregnant woman.
The Ukrainian Orthodox Cathedral in occupied Berdyansk was occupied and given over to the Russian Orthodox Church.
In the Battle for Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces back towards Opytne.
Ukraine hit Iran with sanctions for 50 years for supplying military drones to Russia.
Denmark announced it will increase its military support for Ukraine by another $2.6 billion. Denmark is #12 in support for Ukraine.
Poland announced that no Russian or Belarusian trucks will be allowed to enter Poland starting June 1. This will cutoff the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad by land from the rest of Russia.
May 30
In the early morning hours, Russia launched its 17th missile and drone attack this month, the third within 24 hours. And once again it was its largest attack since the invasion began last year. This time they launched 51 missiles of which 48 were intercepted and 38 Iranian drones of which 30 were downed. All launches against Kyiv were intercepted but falling debris hit one apartment building killing one and injuring three. More may be buried in the rubble. Falling debris also destroyed a private home and several cars. Odessa and Mykolaiv were also targeted.
Hours after the assault on Kyiv, nine drones were intercepted over Moscow. The falling debris damaged several buildings, one of which had to be evacuated when it caught on fire. There were no casualties. Ukraine denied being behind the attack, which would be unlikely as Moscow is 620 miles (1000 km) from the Ukraine border. If Ukraine had launched the attack, it would show the sorry ability of Russian air defenses that allowed them to even reach Moscow. It was most likely an attack by internal Russian dissidents.
There were no attacks near Bakhmut, and 80 withdrawing members of the Wagner Group were killed by Ukrainian artillery.
An explosion rocked occupied Melitopol as Ukraine attacked a Russian military base in the city. Ukrainian drones also destroyed an oil refinery in the city of Krasnodar, Russia.
Russia launched its 18th missile and drone attack on Kyiv in May launching another 31 Iranian drones. 29 of them were intercepted. 90% of all projectiles launched against Ukraine were intercepted in May at a cost of $1.7 billion for Russia.
May 31
Melbourne, Australia, severed its Sister City relationship with St. Petersburg, Russia after 34 years.
Ukraine attacked another two oil refineries in Krasnodar, Russia with US HIMARS rockets.
The US announced another $300 million in military aid to include air defense missiles, more artillery, and more mine clearing systems.
June 1
Russia launched its first air assault against Kyiv in June in the early morning hours. Ten missiles and 30 drones were launched, and all were intercepted. But the falling debris killed three civilians including an 11-year-old girl and her mother.
President Zelensky was the first of 47 leaders to arrive at the second European Political Community summit held in Moldova. The leaders will send a message of solidarity behind Ukraine to Russia. It also sends a message that Europe is behind Moldova which is also occupied by Russian troops in the region around Chisinau.
The two Russian rebel units crossed the border into Russia again and attacked the village of Shebekino. They were met with no resistance. The rebels struck the local police station setting it ablaze and then returned to Ukraine.
In the Battle for Luhansk, it was finally confirmed that Russia had captured the city of Masyutivka several weeks ago. Russia claims that they have now crossed the Oskil River and are advancing towards Dvorichna.
After taking most, if not all, of Bakhmut, Russia’s next main target is to take Marinka which Ukrainian forces have held since 2014 as their closest position to occupied Donetsk city. Chechen forces have arrived and made twelve assaults alone today, but all were repulsed by Ukrainian defenders.
June 2
My region of Zakarpattia has banned the Russian Orthodox Church and turned over all of their churches to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
Switzerland, which has traditional been a neutral country in all conflicts, had broken their neutrality by voicing their support of Ukraine. But they did reject sending any military aid to Ukraine.
Russia launched 15 missiles and 21 Iranian drones against Kyiv, but all were intercepted. Two people were killed by the falling debris. Five building were also damaged.
The US has agreed to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s.
Donald Trump vowed that he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours if elected president. When pressed on how he would do that, he said he would put the two leaders in a room and force them to accept a peace agreement. If Ukraine refused, then all military support would be suspended, and if Russia refused, then massive arms would be sent to Ukraine. President Zelensky said he fears the election of Trump as he is sure that part of the deal would require Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia.
The two pro-Ukrainian Russian rebel units crossed back into Belgorod region of Russia and again attacked the villages of Novaya Tavolzhanka and Shebekino in response to the Russia’s claim that they had been wiped out the day earlier. Some civilians were killed by Russian friendly fire.
June 3
Wagner Group has started an investigation against members of the Russian Ministry of Defense they accused of planting explosive devices meant to harm Wagner Group forces. None of the Wagner Group forces were killed in the explosions.
Russia launched another large missile and drone attack throughout Ukraine in the late evening. All weapons launched against Ukraine were intercepted. At least one missile struck the city of Dnipro in a residential building killing a two-year-old girl and injuring 22 others. Two missiles hit an airfield in central Ukraine which housed long-range weapons.
June 4
The two pro-Ukrainian Russian rebel units crossed again into Belgorod region, Russia, and captured twenty Russian soldiers. They offered to release two of them if the governor of the region met with them for a talk. Governor Gladkov agreed, and then at the last minute rescinded. So, the rebels turned all the POWs over to Ukrainian forces.
AI analysts of Russian social media sites have noticed that more and more Russians are opposed the war with Ukraine.
Russia conducted shelling and missile attacks against targets in the Sumy, Dnipro, and Kharkiv regions resulting in three civilian deaths and 22 injuries.
Russia made an outrageous claim that Russian forces had stopped five large-scale offensives killing 1500 Ukrainian soldiers and capturing 30 tanks. Even Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense for propagating such a lie.
June 5
Wagner Group completed their investigation of who attacked them with explosive devices by releasing a video of Lieutenant Colonel Roman Vinivitin making a public confession that he planned the attack under the influence of alcohol as a personal grudge against the Wagner Group. Vinivitin had an obvious broken nose in the video suggesting he was tortured under interrogation. They are holding Vinivitin as a POW.
The Russian partisan fighters continue to hold onto territory within Russia. They released a video of another 13 Russian POWs they had captured. They were still in control of Novaya Tavolzhanka and Shebekino.
It has been confirmed that Ukrainian forces are still in control of the southwest corner of Bakhmut or have recaptured it as Wagner Group claims.
Ukraine has launched several offensives against Russian forces using Leopard 2 tanks for the first time signalling that the counter-offensive is finally in full swing. Bakhmut seems to be the epicenter as Ukrainian forces have retaken the high positions. NATO tanks were also seen in an offensive towards Novodonetske in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian forces advanced 400 meters in the northern Luhansk region near the Ivanivske forest. Ukrainian forces also liberated several communities in the Donetsk region – Novodarivka, Neskuchne, and Levadne – and advanced closer towards Rivnopil.
Russia blew up the Kakhovka Dam in the late hours to slow down a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. Russia tried to blame Ukraine for blowing up the dam with a missile strike, but the evidence shows that the explosion came from inside the bottom of the dam suggesting it was blown up by set explosives. Since Russia has controlled the dam since the beginning of the invasion, only Russia could have planted and detonated the explosives. The dam is upstream from the major city of Kherson and contains an amount of water equivalent to the Great Salt Lake in Utah. The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) derives its water to cool down their reactors from the Kakhovka Reservoir. But it is not in immediate danger as its water pools are at full capacity.
The destruction of the dam is a war crime and it seems to have been done in a moment of desperation as it will only postpone a counteroffensive across the Dnipro River by at most ten days, if that was even part of Ukraine’s plan. The topography of the region means that most of the flooding will occur on the Russian-held side of the river, and already Russian troops have been seen trying to escape in waste-high water. The flooding will also wash away most of the mines that Russian forces had carefully laid to slow down a Ukrainian offensive into Eastern Kherson. It will create a huge rescue operation as 17,000 people are already forced to evacuat from the flood zone. But in the long run, Russia has just shot itself in the foot as the Kakhovka Reservoir supplies Crimea with its only supply of fresh water.
The ecological cost is unknown as 150 tons of engine oil from the dam will be deposited along the riverbank. Animals are also the victims, not just in the wild, but several zoos along its path. Most of the animals in the zoos have died from drowning already.
June 6
The UN has finally begun the investigation of war crimes conducted by Russia in its 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
Russia launched 35 missiles against Kyiv, but all were intercepted. Debris fell on a road in the capital city damaging a trolleybus line and nearby shop windows. There were no casualties.
The flood waters have reached Kherson who suffered greatly under Russian occupation and now must abandon their homes to the floodwaters. Electricity, water, and gas has been cut off from the city.
Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the north and south of Bakhmut threatening to force Russian forces to retreat from the city.
June 7
The UN so far has been reluctant to blame either Russia or Ukraine for the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. Protestors in Kyiv have placed placards over all UN vehicles, so they read “Useless” rather than “UN”.
The immediate problems for the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam is the lack of drinking water for many in Kherson and Crimea regions. It will also create a food crisis as farmlands will not be able to be irrigated. Eighty settlements are already plunged under water. And many rare species of animals may be wiped out. 55,000 hectares of forest land will be destroyed by the flooding. And the organisms that lived in the reservoir behind the dam will also die.
Ukrainian forces continue to advance towards Bakhmut in all directions. Ukrainian forces are also advancing towards Lobkove from Orikhiv along the Zaporizhia line. This is likely the backup plan that Ukraine had planned if the Kakhovka dam was destroyed.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion –
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.