Someone is supplying Russia with missiles (we know Iran is supplying them drones). We are only eight days into June, and Russia has already hit Ukraine with 400 air assaults, which comes to an average of 57 each day. Granted this includes bombing runs by planes and helicopters, as well as drones. In addition, Ukraine has been hit 515 times by Multiple Rocket Launching Systems (MLRS) in the first week of June, an average of 73 hits a day. A total of 760 Ukrainian settlement have been targeted. Donetsk Oblast was the hardest hit accounting for 38% of the attacks. This is understandable as Russia’s main targets of Bakhmut, Marinka, and Avdiivka are in this region. And the second hardest hit oblast is Kharkiv which is the secondary targets of Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna. Kharkiv accounts for 25% of all attacks. Ukraine conducted a total of only 99 air assaults during the same period, an average of 14 per day. But as Russia is mainly targeting civilians and infrastructure, Ukraine is focused on weapon depots, fuel tanks, troop concentrations, command centers, telecommunication posts, and artillery and MLRS positions.
Ukraine has stated that the counteroffensive has not yet begun. Ukraine has begun counterattacks in specific regions to improve their position and look for weak spots in the Russian defense. These counterattacks are focused on three areas. The first started weeks ago as Ukrainian forces began to retake territory to the north and south of Bakhmut. The other two areas are on the extreme ends of the Zaporizhian defense line. In the east, Ukrainian forces have liberated Novodonetske and are pushing farther south. But on western line, Ukraine has not had any success in advancing as the best of Russian troops are defending that area. Russia has been spending months preparing their defense along the Zaporizhian line knowing full well they would prevent Ukraine from attacking from the west across the Dnipro River by blowing up the Kakhovka Dam. Mines have been devastating to Ukrainian forces and with the constant missile and drone attacks on cities of Ukraine, Ukraine is unable to move air defense systems to the front lines to defend Ukrainian troops. With Russia still controlling the skies, it will be hard for Ukraine to move forward.
Ukraine’s allies are being cautious and not ready yet to publicly accuse Russia of the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. Although they all state that the evidence so far points to Russia, they want to hold off from officially making such an accusation until they complete their own investigation. The US has taken the strongest position saying that even if Russia is found to have not purposefully blown up the dam, they are still to blame as the destruction was a consequence of their illegal invasion of Ukraine. Russia continues to blame Ukraine for destroying the dam with missiles, but a missile strike would not have done the extent of damage that was caused. The explosion had to come from within, either by explosives set off by Russian troops, or a structural failure of some kind.
The flooding from the Kakhovka dam breach now covers over 230 square miles (600 square kilometers). The average depth of water in the affected areas is 18.4 feet (5.61 meters). 32% of the flooded waters are in Ukrainian-held territories, and 68% in Russian-held territories. What is happening on the Russian side is unknown, but Ukraine has already evacuated 1995 people including 103 children. Many more have fled on their own accord. 2629 homes in twenty communities are under water, including parts of the regional capital, Kherson.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his “shock” that neither the Red Cross nor the UN have taken any action to help evacuate civilians on the Russian side. Ukraine troops are risking their lives by rescuing as many as they can, but Russian forces are firing on the rescuers both on the Ukrainian and Russian sides of the river. Russia has even been firing on civilians trying to escape the flood waters on their own. President Zelensky has already visited the area and met with officials on how to best move forward. Zelensky also met with representatives from the UN and worked out an agreement for the UN to rescue residents in flooded areas in the Russian zone.
In the long run, the people who will be hurt the most in this disaster are the residents of Crimea. Although Russia has developed the infrastructure so that there is enough potable water in Crimea for people to drink, there is no other water source for irrigation or animal life. Crimea will return to a desert. It will take 5-10 years to build a new dam.
Ukraine is in negotiations to purchase 40 retired Australian Hornet fighter jets sitting in storage. It would take approximately six months to refurbish and make them flight ready. Australia had retired a total of 71 jets, but the best of them have already been purchased by Canada, Malaysia, and aviation museums around the world. RAVN Aerospace has already made a deposit to purchase the remaining 40 which they plan to fix and sell to the US government to be used for target practice. President Biden has already agreed to allow Ukraine to purchase the planes from RAVN instead once legal approval is granted.