UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
UAF have regained the initiative in the Battle for Bakhmut retaking around a square mile of territory to the north and south of the city and are now threatening to encircle RF fighting in Bakhmut. There were no other confirmed advances by either side over the last two days.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but neither side made any confirmed advances. It was noted that UAF are seeing more and more Russian convicts in the troops they are engaging against, suggesting that RF are exhausted and turning over assaults to the new convict recruits.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
UAF have taken the initiative in the Battle for Bakhmut pushing back RF 1500 – 3000 feet along the defense lines north and south of Bakhmut. UAF have retaken nearly a square mile of territory over the last few days. RF continue to fight for the city itself and made some more marginal advances with UAF only in control of 0.8 square miles of the city. But RF failed to encircle the Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut and are now becoming endangered of being encircled themselves.
To the north of Bakhmut, RF have withdrawn from Sakko I Vantsetti. It is not known yet whether UAF have moved in to retake the settlement. This is significant as it cuts off the RF in Bakhmut along an important supply line.
Before an after pictures showing the destruction of Bakhmut by RF
Avdiivka/Marinka
Fighting continues in the region, but there were no confirmed advances by other side. RS claim that RF advanced another 330 feet in Marinka leaving UAF in control of around 0.5 square miles in the city.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
RF unsuccessfully conducted assaults in Western Donetsk. There were no confirmed advances on either side.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
UAF have retaken most of the islands in the Dnipro River but find it difficult to hold on to them as they are not able to dig trenches and are susceptible to aerial bombing.
RF conducted a missile attack on Mykolaiv on Tuesday hitting a shopping mall and a gas turbine. UAF continue to shell rear areas around Tokmak, Vasylivka, and Polohy.
Partisans attacked a railway line in Crimea causing a train derailment.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Three scientists have been arrested in Russia and charged with treason due to the disappointing performance of Russian missiles and their inability to get past Western air defenses installed in Ukraine. This will have a negative impact on the next generation of Russian youth from pursuing careers in science and will result in a decrease of scientific research.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian occupation authorities the dissolution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) in the dioceses of Berdyansk and Prymorsk. All churches and property of the UOC were given to the Russian Orthodox Church. 29 UOC priests have been assassinated since the start of the invasion last year.
The Russian government has passed a law allowing the forced deportation of civilians from regions under martial law (occupied territories) to areas of Russia not under martial law. The law also allows the postponement of elections in regions under martial law suggesting that Russia is preparing to postpone elections in the occupied regions knowing they will lose much territory.
Belarus
Though Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made an appearance to quell rumors he is very ill, there is much talk in Moscow about what will happen if he dies. It is feared that the people of Belarus might rise like Ukrainians did in their own color revolution. Russia is preparing to send in troops to quell any such demonstrations and may just simply annex all of Belarus. Rumors are circulating that Russia poisoned him as he disappeared right after he returned from his last visit to Moscow.
Other News
Ukraine and Russia signed a deal to extend the Black Sea grain deal for another two months. Russia had made many demands and it is not known what concessions Russia eventually got.
The Patriot air defense system that was damaged on Tuesday when a missile that had been shot down yet still crashed on it has already been fully repaired.
Russia launched another large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine in the early hours Thursday. Thirty missiles were launched in the attack and all, but one, was intercepted. Four drones were also shot down, two of them reconnaissance drones. Russia is obviously launching reconnaissance drones to search for where the Patriot air systems are based. The one missile that hit its target killed one civilian and injured another in Odesa.
International Support
The European Union held its first Heads of State Summit in 18 years and created an international register of damage caused by Russia on Ukraine as a first step to demand reparations after the war concludes. President Zelensky was invited to the summit and thanked the European countries for their support of Ukraine. Zelensky was awarded the annual Charlemagne Prize of Aachen in honor of his outstanding contribution to European unity and cooperation.
After the Summit, Zelensky met with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte. The two European leaders announced the creation of an international coalition to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses including the supply of jet fighters. Belgium and France were the first two countries to join the coalition. And the UK pledged hundreds of long-range attack drones to get the coalition started.
The French Senate voted to recognize Stalin’s forced starvation of Ukrainians between 1932 – 1933, known as the Holodomor, as an act of genocide. France became the 27th country to recognize the act as genocide. The U.S. is also one of the 27 nations that have voted to recognize the Holodomor as genocide.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.