Some critics have been unfairly portraying the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a dismal failure. They had hoped for huge territorial gains like Ukraine had made last year by pushing Russian forces out of Kharkiv and half of Kherson regions. Ukraine has never been focused on territorial gains, but on asymmetrical attrition of Russian forces. The reason for those huge gains last year was because of this strategy. Those huge gains occurred after months of wearing down Russian forces until they retreated from those regions. The same strategy is being employed today. Ukraine does not have the air power to defend its troops, and therefore cannot move fast into new territories while their limited air defense is left behind. This would leave Ukrainian forces exposed to attack and heavy losses. But by wearing down Russian forces and slowly advancing forward, Ukraine can win this war with limited losses of life. Ukraine must also move slowly as Russia has planted landmines 20 miles (30 km) deep into Russian-occupied territory and must clear these mines before moving forward. With all of that said, Ukraine has liberated 23.25 square miles (37.5 square km) over the last week. Ukraine has liberated 100 square miles (160 km) since the counteroffensive has begun.
Ukraine has been focusing on seven sectors of the frontline – Luhansk region towards Kreminna, around Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, western Donetsk region around Vuhledar, where Zaporizhia and Donetsk Oblasts come together towards Velyka Novosilka, along the western side of the Zaporizhia defense line from Orikhiv towards Tokmak, and along the Dnipro River crossing at the destroyed Antonivka Bridge near Kherson city (red arrows). Russia continues unsuccessful counterattacks mainly along the Luhansk line in the Serebrianska Forest and towards Kupyansk (blue arrows). I have placed a red circle around Uzhhorod in the west to show that we are far from the conflict.
The major accomplishments over the last few days in the Ukrainian counteroffensive include securing the crossing of the Dnipro River at the damaged Antonivsky Bridge and creating a beachhead on the eastern shore of the river. Russian forces are intensely trying to reverse this because they have diluted their defense of this region by diverting troops north to the Zaporizhia Line. This was the main reason why Russia destroyed the Kakhovka Dam so they would not have to defend an attack across the river. If Ukraine can secure this beachhead, then they might be able to attack the southeast flank of the Russian forces to liberate the rest of Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces have also had success in moving south at the Zaporizhia/Donetsk Oblasts border towards Priyutne. It was briefly reported that Ukraine had liberated Priyutne on Tuesday, but it was confirmed within 24 hours that Russia still controls the settlement. Ukraine has also made progress towards moving closer to Robotyne on the western side of the Zaporizhia defense line. In the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian forces are slowly inching towards Klishchiivka to the south and Dubovo-Vasylivka and Berkhivka in the north. In the Avdiivka theater, Ukrainian forces are moving towards Vesele.
The attack on a pizzeria in Kramatorsk is believed to be an intentional assassination of 37-year-old Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina who was killed in the attack. Russia is targeting cultural icons in their genocide of Ukraine.
Russia continues to conduct missile and drone attacks throughout Ukraine. On Sunday morning they launched 11 missiles and eight Iranian Shahed drones, with all of them targeting Kyiv shot down. Falling debris damaged three homes in Kyiv region with one man sustaining leg injuries.
On Monday Russia launched 3 missiles and 20 Shahed drones with Ukraine intercepting 16 of the drones. Several residential buildings and an administrative center were hit in Sumy killing seven and injuring 20 civilians.
On Tuesday, Russia conducted more missile and drone attacks throughout Ukraine. 43 people were injured, including 12 children, from a Russian strike on Pervomaiske. A residential building was hit in Kherson killing two.
Ukraine fought back launching five drones near Moscow on Tuesday forcing them to temporarily shut down their international airport. All five drones were shot down causing no damage. Ukraine conducted a missile strike of their own on Wednesday striking an ammunition depot in Makiyivka destroying ammunition and a fuel tank. They also struck targets near Debaltseve, Yasynuvata, Yakymivka, Skadovsk and Volnovakha. Another attack on Berdyansk was successfully stopped by Russian air defense. This is an important target as it is their main airfield where they have been stocking attack helicopters and thus, they are defending the air around this airfield.
Yesterday Lviv was hit by a missile/drone strike in the early morning hours killing three people and injuring more than eight when a missile fragment struck a multi-story apartment building destroying about 50 apartments.
Russian forces have placed what looks like explosive devices on the roofs of two nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. It is unlikely that a nuclear disaster would result of they were detonated as the reactors are built to sustain considerable damage but could be used by Russia to claim that Ukraine is firing upon the reactors to garner sympathy for Russia and international contempt for Ukraine. Russia is not allowing monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the roofs of these reactors.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin has been absolved of all financial responsibility for the damage he caused during his short-lived mutiny. Damage inflicted has been estimated to be roughly $1 million. All his assets that had been seized by the Russian government were returned to him. It is not clear yet whether he will be responsible to provide compensation to the families of the pilots that died after being shot down by Wagner Group forces.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has found himself in a difficult situation as well. He ordered the detainment that resulted in the physical assaults on journalist Yelena Milashina and the lawyer of Chechen opposition activist Zarema Musayeva of whom she was accompanying to cover the story of his trial. The pro-Russian milbloggers have come to her defense demanding justice as freedom of the press is important to them as well. President Putin will be in a difficult situation as he needs Kadyrov and the milbloggers as allies in the war against Ukraine.
The Russian embassy in Romania has been slashed by more than half as Romania demanded 40 diplomats and embassy staff to leave last weekend charged with espionage.
An international office to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine opened in the Hague on Monday. It will be comprised of officials from Ukraine, the U.S., and the EU.
Unilever has been added to the Ukrainian list of companies supporting Russia in their war against Ukraine because they continue to do business in Ukraine. Unilever products ought to be boycotted until they shut down their operations in Russia. Products owned by Unilever include Rexona, Dove, and Lipton. Please boycott these products and write their companies to tell them why.
The Parliament of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) officially recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization.
The Bulgarian parliament expressed their support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO.