Days 508-509 (July 16-17, 2023)

Ukraine continues its counteroffensive along three sectors. Ukrainian forces have advanced another 0.6 miles (1 km) from their march from Velyka Novosilka towards Berdyansk. Limited advances were also made from Orikhiv towards Melitopol. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have liberated Zaliznyanske (8 miles N of Bakhmut) as well as the heights overlooking Klishchiivka (4.5 miles south of Bakhmut) and a fortified area just west of Andriivka (6.2 miles south) as they continue to encircle Bakhmut. Russian troops have also made some limited gains in their offensive towards Kupyansk in the north. Over 100,000 Russian troops (more than half of the troops in Ukraine) and 9000 tanks alone are amassed for this offensive against Kupyansk, and yet Russian gains are only limited. Overall, Ukraine has liberated 130 square miles since the counteroffensive began.

Ukrainian water drones damaged the Kerch Bridge that connects the Russian mainland with occupied Crimea. Vehicle traffic has been stopped in one direction, but the central rail line is still operational. Russia is diverting all vehicle traffic through occupied southern Ukraine. This will greatly slow down the ability of Russia to resupply their troops as they now must travel on routes susceptible to Ukrainian missile strikes. The damage to the bridge is extensive and cannot easily be restored. Ukraine also launched a drone attack on the Sevastopol military port in occupied Crimea.

Russia shelled the settlement of Kolodyazne on Sunday killing one civilian. Russia also launched four S-300 missiles at Kharkiv, three of which got through air defenses.

The Russian military is falling apart from insubordination. It started from the top as commanders began complaining about the conditions of their troops and the lack of supplies, they were receiving to carry on the fight. Last week the two commanders who were leading the strongest defenses against the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Colonel General Ivan Popov and Major General Vladimir Selivertsov, were fired. Popov was fired for insubordination threatening to go over the head of the Russian Chief of the Military Valery Gerasimov and make his plea directly to President Vladimir Putin. It is assumed, but not verified, that it was the same for Selivertsov. It was now just revealed that Major General Alexander Kornev, who had been leading the only successful Russian offensive along the Luhansk Line, was fired earlier in July as well as Major General Ramil Ibatullin, commander of the 90th Tank Division. And rumors are circulating that Colonel Sergei Karasev, the commander of the 31st VDV Brigade which is leading the defense of Bakhmut, is next. It is also believed that the main commander of all Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, is about to be arrested, not just dismissed. Insubordination is also spreading to the troops themselves. Soldiers of the 7th VDV Division are threatening mass desertion from their positions stopping Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, if the Russian Ministry of Defense arrests Teplinsky. But the real blame for this culture of insubordination lies with the Russian government and President Putin himself. He also has a habit of violating chain of command by bypassing Gerasimov and communicating directly with commanders on the field.

A second convoy of Wagner Group forces has been seen heading to Belarus. It is believed that 700 Wagner Group forces are now in Belarus.

The deadline to extend the deadline allowing Ukraine to export grain has come and gone without Russia agreeing to extend. Therefore, the deal is officially not in operation. Putin stated that he is not willing to extend the deal unless the West meets his demand to allow Russian food and fertilizer exports as well. The last ship to travel left Odesa on Sunday.

Sweden pledged another $586 million to rebuild Ukraine and facilitate reforms to pave the way for EU membership.

The UK expanded their sanctions on Russia by adding fourteen more individuals, including Russian Education Minister Sergey Kravtsov and Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Moscow region Ksenia Mishonova for supporting the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

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