Russia 1
Russia claims to have surrounded Synkivka on three sides. The settlement is only five miles from their target of Kupyansk, but this has not been confirmed.
Russia 2
There was no change on the ground over the last two days.
Russia 3
Russia continues its fight to capture Avdiivka and Marinka but has made no progress. Neither has Ukraine been able to push Russian forces back. This fight also remains a stalemate.
Ukraine 1
Ukrainian forces made no confirmed advances on Wednesday, but Russia claimed to have pushed Ukrainian forces completely out of Klishchiivka. If that were true, it did not last long as it has been confirmed that Ukraine advanced in Klishchiivka on Thursday.
Ukraine 2
It was confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated Urozhaine as they published footage of them raising the Ukrainian flag in the center of the settlement on Wednesday. And Russian reports of fighting south of Urozhaine confirm its liberation. Ukraine has begun pushing south towards Zavitne Bazhannya and east towards Kremenchyk. Here is the video of the liberation of Urozhaine.
Ukraine 3
Ukrainian forces inched closer to Robotyne which has been confirmed by geolocated footage. Ukrainian forces are moving more freely to the north of Robotyne due to the clearing of minefields. One Russian source reported that Ukraine already controls the northern half of Robotyne, but that has not been confirmed nor claimed by Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have also been confirmed moving farther southeast on the T0803 Highway towards occupied Novopokrovka.
Ukraine 4
Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and back to their side of the river, but this has not been confirmed. Ukraine did strike a Russian military training base west of Primorske. Russian milbloggers are criticizing the Russian military command for even having a training base within range of Ukrainian rockets.
There is growing evidence that Russia’s defense line in Ukraine is crumbling.
- “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky, the leader of Russian forces defending in Ukraine 2 sector, publicly recommended that Russia seek to freeze the war along the current frontlines stating that Russia is unlikely to expand beyond the current line. Perhaps he knows that Urozhaine is not the only settlement that will fall.
- Ukrainian forces are nearing the second line of defense. The first line is a massive minefield with an average of 1.5 mines every square foot. The clearing of this minefield is what has slowed down Ukraine’s counteroffensive. But now that Ukraine has cleared a path north of Robotyne (Ukraine 3 sector) and north of Staromlynivka (Ukraine 2 sector), Ukrainian forces can push more quickly through the next line of defense. And if Ukrainian forces still maintain a hold on the eastern shore of the Dnipro River (Ukraine 4 sector), they can push behind this second line of defense known as the Surovikin Line named after the general who constructed it.
- The Russian troops that were defending Urozhaine were calling for reinforcements which never came. Russia was sending reinforcements before without rotating out defenders suggesting they were running out of reserves and could only replace troops that were lost. But in Urozhaine, they could not even do that.
- Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Ka-52 helicopters on Thursday, one of which was confirmed. If this is true, it possibly means that Russian pilots are tiring or have been degraded.
- Russia had threatened to send troops to the Finnish border if they went through with joining NATO. But that still has not happened since Finland officially joined NATO indicating that Russia does not have the troops to send.
Russia launched a drone attack during the night Tuesday/Wednesday. The number of drones was not reported, but Ukraine did shoot down thirteen of them over Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Residential buildings were hit and a grain silo in the port city of Reni was destroyed. There were no casualties. On Thursday, Russia conducted a rocket attack on a train carrying ammunition at the Mezhova railway station in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Russia announced their plans to build 6000 military drones by 2025. This indicates that Russia aims to develop the long-term capability to conduct large drone strikes against Ukraine. And since drones are ineffective against troops, Russia plans on continuing their campaign of terrorizing Ukrainian civilians by attacking residential and infrastructure targets. But leaked documents from a Russian employee at the Alabuga drone factory show that Russia has only been able to build 300 so far and is one month behind schedule. The source of the leak revealed the two main problems are the lack of personnel to build the drones and the lack of supplies as Russia only domestically has four of the 130 necessary internal components to build the drones and international sanctions is making it difficult for Russia to procure the needed components. And even if the drones are produced, Russia lacks the personnel to fly the drones indicated by the announcement by Russian authorities that universities will begin training one million drone operators.
Russia’s defense ministry reported that they shot down three Ukrainian drones just before they reached Moscow on Wednesday. There was no damage from falling debris.
The Hong Kong-flagged container ship Joseph Schulte left the Odesa port on Wednesday full of grain and traveled along a temporary corridor to Istanbul, Turkey, secured by NATO members Romania and Bulgaria to circumvent Russian attempts to curtail maritime traffic.
Russian milbloggers are complaining about the lack of newly well-trained middle-level officers serving on the front line. Instead, Russia is appointing old and ineffective commanders that they consider more loyal. But these officers are from a different era and are creating bureaucratic roadblocks for an effective modern army.
Ukraine has been very effective in attacking Russian targets such as bridges and weapon depots deep within occupied territory. One of the reasons is that local Russians are posting pictures of areas struck allowing Ukraine to determine whether they hit the right target, and if not, how to adjust their aim to try again. Russia has approved increasing the penalty for such activity to 500,000 rubles ($5290- or one-year salary) and three years in prison.
Moscow is hosting the Army-2023 Forum with countries that are interested in purchasing Russian arms. Russia is using this opportunity to threaten allies of ending their military support if they continue to cooperate with Wagner Group forces. The goal is to destroy the international influence of the Wagner Group. Countries represented at the Forum are Syria, Burundi, Venezuela, Guinea, Bolivia, Oman, and Uganda.
A controversy arose over the last two days when Norwegian Stian Jenssen, the chief of staff to NATO’s Secretary General, suggested that Ukraine trade territory in exchange for peace. World leaders erupted in criticism over the suggestion, and Jenssen apologized saying he had misspoken in a conversation not intended to go public.
Bulgaria became the 23rd country to sign the G7 security guarantee for Ukraine on Wednesday. The other 15 in addition to the G7 countries are Greece, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, and North Macedonia. On Thursday the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania signed the document.
The U.S. announced that they will provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets once their pilots complete their training in Denmark and The Netherlands. But that will not happen until the Spring of 2024. Germany provided two more air defense systems.
It has been confirmed that Russian Army General Sergei Surovikin has been placed under house arrest, but no official reason has been published. Surovikin had been the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine but may have been removed as he was friends to Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin. The fact that no official charges have been made suggests that Putin is up to his old tricks of disgracing officers but allowing them to return to his favor rather than remove them completely.
Russian authorities are targeting individuals associated with the “Golos” Movement for the Defense of Voters’ Rights as Putin prepares to steal the 2024 elections. Vladimir Yegorov, the leader of “Golos” has been arrested and the Co-Chairperson Grigory Melkonyants has had his premises searched. They are both under investigation for disobeying police.
Alexander Molokhov, the lawyer for Russian nationalist Igor Girkin who has been arrested for criticizing Putin, was arrested himself in Crimea under charges of extortion. He was held for ten hours and then released without a criminal case initiated. They obviously got his assurance to cooperate with Russian authorities and provide a weak defense for Girkin.
Police Lieutenant General Gennady Lopyrev was found dead in his prison cell where he was serving a sentence for bribery. Unfortunately for him, he was one of the few people that knew the secrets of Putin’s Black Sea palace. He had just been diagnosed suddenly two days before for leukemia and suddenly complained of shortness of breath before dying.
Russian Army General Gennady Zhidko, who led the capture of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk last summer, has died from cancer.
Russia is forcing migrants who receive Russian citizenship to register for military service. Several migrants were detained and brought to recruitment centers who have failed to register. Russia is also forcing the children of such migrants to speak the Russian language if they want to attend school. This is also being applied in Ukrainian occupied territory.
Russia has sent 50 Ukrainian high school students from the occupied Ukraine to the Demidov Yaroslavl State University to encourage them to enroll. And another 400 Ukrainian children have been sent to a summer camp in Krasnodar Krai for “patriotic training”. Several other children have been sent to the Republic of Mordovia for medical examinations. The forced deportation of children is a war crime.
Russia has begun training Ukrainian schoolchildren in the occupied territories in “patriotic education” and weapons handling.
A recent poll of Ukrainian refugees show that 75% of them intend to return to Ukraine. 15% plan on returning in the next three months.